Morning Consult/Politico post debate poll: Clinton +4, Was T +1.

[factfinder_77]

Last edited Wed Sep 28, 2016, 08:36 AM - Edit history (2)

It shows Clinton +4 in a 4way race. Pre-debate was Trump +1. Only 9% of respondents said the debate changed their mind. 49% say Clinton won the debate and 26% say Trump won. 18% of Republicans say Clinton won. 72% of likely voters watched the debate, and 55% of those viewers watched the whole 95-minute affair.

Edit: Thanks to DanTex for the link:

https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/28/clinton-bests-trump-debate-half-likely-voters-say/

[leftynyc]

1. Good news, but

I can't find a link to that anywhere, not even on the Politico website.

[DanTex]

2. I found this link.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/28/clinton-bests-trump-debate-half-likely-voters-say/

[leftynyc]

3. Thanks

I'm finding it disturbing they hid that news about a 4 point swing in Hillary's favor so far down in the article. And try to downplay it even when reporting on it:

But the impact of Monday’s debate is still small. Just 9 percent of voters said the debate changed their minds about who they will be voting for, while about eight out of 10 said it wouldn’t matter. Before the debate, Trump led Clinton by 1 point in the four-way race with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. But Clinton now leads Trump by 3 points (41 percent to 38 percent), and in a head-to-head scenario, she leads by 4 points (45 percent to 41 percent).

[Demsrule86]

4. It is good news

for most of us.

[louis c]

5. 5 point swing toward Clinton

From minus 1 to plus 4.

[DanTex]

6. Yeah I don't know why they did that. If other polls confirm the 4 point swing, that's pretty big.

[leftynyc]

8. Especially since half the poll

was done BEFORE the debate. The media is so pathetically desperate to make this a horse race they've lost all objectivity.

[Hortensis]

7. 9% would be a yooooge change, though --if it stuck.

The typically standard narrow gap in polls now tells us that almost all those conservatives who said early on they didn't know what to do have now settled in to "vote their jerseys."

A majority are not voting for Trump, most are not even motivated primarily against Hillary.

They're voting for Republicans against Democrats.

[reflection]

9. Agreed. 9% is much more than needed.

It would result in a November curbstomping. My dad and I have had a steak dinner riding for months on whether or not Hillary will get 300+ electoral votes. I say she will and I still feel good about that prediction. YMMV, void where prohibited, etc.

[leftynyc]

10. That was another thing that

caught my eye - if almost 10% of Americans will change their vote on the basis of the debate, I think that's HUGE. Frankly, I think that anyone who hasn't made up their minds is simpleminded...period.

[Joe941]

14. They may be simpleminded but...

we still want there vote. I think this debate ends up being a +10 for clinton!

[Hortensis]

18. I trend optimistic, historically too much so, but,

given the real threat Trump presents, I suspect some national leaders and media will start speaking out against Trump more and endorsing Clinton's fitness, or backing off their intense criticisms a bit.

It seems likely that Trump owes his current ratings to the unusual number of likely Supreme Court vacancies as much as any other factor. That's a huge motivator for both right and left, but even big business has to be nervous about what the presidency itself could do to their assets and investments. World financial markets improved just on the news that HRC did better in the first debate than Trump.

Btw, a recent study by a couple of economists at Princeton found our economy’s annual growth averaged 4.35% under Democrats and 2.54% under Republicans. These specific numbers are the only news here. Even an incompetent like Trump once commented that the economy does better under Democratic administrations.

[20895DEM]

11. So 26% of those surveyed were watching a different debate than the one I watched?

Probably the one playing in Trump's reality.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. 26% are so partisan they don't care

Politics has devolved into rooting for your team. 100% of the people watching that debate knew Hillary destroyed Trump, but 26% will still say their guy won because tghey are fanatics.

[book_worm]

12. Good!

[C_U_L8R]

13. Changing the minds of 9% is a huge deal

Especially with just weeks until election day.
People generally don't admit their minds have been swayed.
The debate made a big impact. Lets keep this good stuff going !!!

[molova]

15. Trump +1 was an outlier

Morning Consult has always had several pro-Trump points above the norm

[world wide wally]

16. Not the entire 9% necessarily switched from Trump to Hillary although the lion's share did.

Now she (we) have to finish she the job