fwiw, 538 nowcast has hillary back over 60%

[unblock]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[still_one]

1. I sure would like to see at least one of these states go blue, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina,

or Nevada.

Any of the first three are my preference

[jcgoldie]

2. I am waiting for...

FL, NV, and OH to turn light blue again. That's when I will assume positive momentum.

[yellowcanine]

3. Also looks like FL, NC, and NV getting ready to flip back to blue.

Hoping to see that EV total back over 300 by the end of the week.

[MFM008]

4. yes its gone up from 55.4 to this

she has gone more solid in blue states.
I want to see voters in Nevada and Florida or Ohio come around
fuck Iowa.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. Yes...the key is making the blues bluer !! Would only send resource to pale blue.

screw everything else

[MFM008]

10. I meant even in Washington state

she had dropped, now shes back up. Hold blue states, move to light pink states.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. I like Plouffe's 100%

[unblock]

8. lol! didn't see that ;) pretty close to my estimation as well ;)

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. he's really a cool guy...very smart and

Very savvy. He knows where our votes are and where its literally impossible for Hillary to lose. He's kind of like 538..but actually knows what he's talking about.

[TSIAS]

6. Good news

Is Nate Silver still a Republican who can't be trusted?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. He's actually apolitical. Heard an interview on PBS. He actually

cares more about sports probabilities than politics. Been meaning to buy his book about probabilities sounded interesting.

Personally, he doesn't impress me with 538. Seems all he does is just repackage the info that's already out there. Hell, he had Jeb at like 89% to win nom.

[unblock]

11. i think he has more at stake in getting it right, however he votes.

that said, statistics being a probabilistic business, his record is to a large extent based on luck.

good statistics can minimize the "luck", but "getting all 50 states right" certainly has some luck when several of them are within the margin of error.

and of late i've become a bit skeptical of his models.

[marybourg]

12. 58.2 on my computer. nt.

[progressoid]

14. That's what I saw but a refresh changed it to 60.3

Edit. Now its back to 58.2

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. 60.3 is the Now Cast as of 11:52 AM EST

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

[Jim Dandy]

13. Yes Sir

Making my day better.

[C_U_L8R]

15. Woot ! Woot !!

Hillary's rising !!

[Blue Idaho]

18. 538s model seems really volatile... nt.