‘Keys to the White House’ analysis predicts a popular victory by Trump

[DonViejo]

REUTERS
05 OCT 2016 AT 12:26 ET

The forces influencing the U.S. presidential election favor Republican nominee Donald Trump to win the popular vote – but even proven prediction models face “the most difficult election by far to predict accurately,” a political forecaster with a three-decade winning streak said on Wednesday.

History Professor Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington has accurately predicted the popular result in presidential elections since Republican President Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in 1984.

Although the number of ballots cast by voters for each candidate counts, it does not ultimately determine who takes the White House. In a process known as the Electoral College, the candidate who wins a majority of 538 electoral votes is the victor. Each state and the District of Columbia is allocated a certain number of those votes, and the candidates have to amass them state-by-state on Election Day.

While Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” analysis predicts a popular victory by Trump, some other models, such as FiveThirtyEight’s and The New York Times’, have given Democratic rival Hillary Clinton a large probability of victory.

more
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/keys-to-the-white-house-analysis-predicts-a-popular-victory-by-trump/

[radical noodle]

1. Everyone has to be wrong sometime

This is probably Lichtman's year. I don't think anything in his equation takes the "crazy" into account.

[saltpoint]

2. Do they offer any analysis of factors

leading to their prediction or on which their prediction is based?

The explanation of the electoral college passage is true as far as it goes, but does not analyze why they believe, despite polling now trending toward Clinton-Kaine, that Trump-Pence will win.

Not sure what's going on here.

[Doctor Jack]

5. They are starting to lag behind badly

At least 6-7 points now. How do they make that up in a few weeks? They have never been ahead in the national averages. The idea that they would come from behind to win, after trailing 99.9% of the election is ridiculous

[saltpoint]

8. Agree. The percentages, demographic by

demographic, don't seem to support any trend toward Trump-Pence and clearly show increased support for Clinton-Kaine.

If FiveThirtyEight is wrong, I'm wondering why Lichtman thinks he's right, and how Lichtman reached his findings. At the moment it just does not look as if Trump-Pence can appeal to various demographic voter groups in high enough percentages to best Romney's performance, and Romney lost.

[uponit7771]

16. I would put good money on it that they're going back to the 2004 election models TOO for LV voters..

... like the other models have done and ignore the demo number of 2006 as if the critical mass of PoC didn't happen !!!

[saltpoint]

17. I looked over the article twice to see what the

distinguishing variable was but couldn't find one.

Trump is pissing in his own bucket in this campaign. This is the last few weeks. He's likely under more pressure now than he's ever been. I'm not sure he can make it through to Nov. 8 without embarrassing himself even more. The Clinton-Kaine campaign ads largely just show Trump barking Trump's own words. Since the first presidential debate at Hoftra, HRC's percentage have risen and Trump's have slipped.

It might be good for one of the more thoughtful tv interviewers -- maybe Charlie Rose -- to have Lichtman on to ask if he thinks his prediction model might be upended by Trump's particular personality.

[Lifelong Protester]

3. He would perhaps extend his streak if

this was an election like other ones-it is not. So he might be surprised....

[misterhighwasted]

4. Professor Allan Lichtman of American University is losing his touch.

Maybe he's been at this too long.
Trump & the Republican Party wil not be given the keys to the White House in 2016.

I'm predicting that.

[TRUMP-BS-DETECTOR]

6. No way

Hillary will take both the popular & electoral college. That is complete nonsense that she could
lose the popular vote. Her ground game alone will bring in millions more votes.

[geek tragedy]

7. his keys are poorly/vaguely defined bullshit that also assume generic, mainstream candidates on both

sides

[Mass]

9. Lichtman himself says that this time, the model could be wrong because of whom Trump is.

However, I also noted that Donald Trump is such a dangerously precedent-breaking candidate that he could upset the verdict of history and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[rgbecker]

10. Well Lichtman, how did you call the 2000 election?

Are you counting the votes in Florida, or going with the Supreme Court?

[gabeana]

21. good question

I was wondering that myself

[Orsino]

11. Wrongly. n/t

[yellowcanine]

12. I heard Lichtman just a couple of days ago. He admits his model doesn't account for a candidate

like Trump. He did not quite say it but he certainly hinted that he thinks his model might be wrong this year. Also his "keys" to the election are a bit subjective and not nearly as sensitive/accurate as the mathematical models of Sam Wang and Nate Silver, which account for demographic differences in battleground states much better than Lichtman's keys do.

[beachbumbob]

13. I find that prediction to clearly be delusional for popular vote

Consider trump will lose California by close 20%...,New York by nearly the same, Illinois and Mass. by 15%..Pennsylvannia by 10%.....and trump has no commanding lead in any of the populous states to speak of....and close election margins in Texas, Arizona...Georgia....so I see nowhere trump can total popular vote lead under any scenario...that professor is smoking crack

[saltpoint]

14. : ) "This is Allan Lichtman. This is Allan

Lichtman on crack."

[tonyt53]

15. But GW really didn't win. So they guy was wrong about that one. The rest weren't that hard to pick.

[bettyellen]

18. Isn't this the guy who didn't deem Obama as "charismatic"? Racist asshole.

[Cakes488]

19. he has had quite a run...guessing I mean prediciting right since 1984...looks like your run is ova!

[pnwmom]

20. Which of the other elections had a strong woman running against a guy who wants to be a strongman?

[BlueStater]

22. Yeah, and...?

I remember, during the primaries, a story about a county in Maine that had correctly voted for every winner since 1948 or whatever. They voted for Sanders. Guess who won the nomination?

Determining who will win by the actions or guesses of someone or something that hasn't been wrong in a long time is idiotic.