2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBOOM: Clinton Trounces Trump By 14 Points In New WSJ/NBC News Poll
The first poll taken since the release of a 2005 tape in which Donald Trump can be heard bragging about grabbing womens genitals shows the Republican nominee taking a significant hit among voters nationally.
Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 14 points, 52-38, in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters, according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Monday. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, after the 2005 tape of Trump's vulgar comments about women was released, but before the Sunday night debate.
When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by 11 points, 46-35, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 points.
Clinton doubled her lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup since last month's NBC/WSJ poll. In September, Clinton led Trump by seven points, 48-41, in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters. And when third party candidates were added to the question in the September NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton led Trump by six points, 43-37.
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-trounces-trump-post-video
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)a four way
what gives?
are those two just going to disappear?
I know their numbers will probably diminish, but I don't get it
thanks
Stallion
(6,474 posts)so it gives an indication of the likely direction of movement as Election nears
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)thx
Daemonaquila
(1,712 posts)They know that some people will answer a poll inaccurately, such as saying they'll vote for a 3rd party candidate when they will actually do an R or D vote when election day comes. The 4-way poll is more of a snapshot of who people back right now, and the 2-way is closer to the predictor because so many people will bail on G and L in the last moment, and they want to know which way those voters will swing.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)the polls are so volatile it's ludicrous to even attempt to project that far out
dumbo went from 8-10 points behind to even/ahead in less than two weeks because of media feeding on emails/cgi, while ignoring Everything drump has done
lord knows what's coming down the pike from a certain London balcony
Daemonaquila
(1,712 posts)6 months ago, the polls were useless except as a guide to the campaigns as to where they needed to up their ground games. 1 month from the election? They're very relevant as predictors. Barring another extreme October surprise, they won't change much, and further polling will just show trends and how the swing states are looking. Historically, little changes this close in, and October Surprises are overrated.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)This will be the average within 10 days, we'll see some +20s soon. the +15s or better will outnumber the + less than 10s.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)after Trump's awful week. He will ignore it just as he ignored the Florida polls with her leads.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)Reagan barely won a majority--if it hadn't been for Anderson that 1980 ballgame would have been a lot closer.
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Raygun 58.8% v Mondale 40.6%, and 49 out of 50 states (lost Minnesota by 3,761 votes).
6 years before I was born, so I cannot be blamed.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)our nominee makes his BIG campaign pledge...tax cuts to balance the freaking budget.
We lost big time because, in making that pledge, Mondale essentially promised not to significantly differ from Reagan on any major issue.
It was never about "liberalism". It was about defeatism.
catbyte
(34,386 posts)She said that he was "so Presidential, so measured, so competent to be our leader." The host was a little stunned, as was I. She said that voters will all flock to Don the Con and that, on the strength of his epic performance, they will also increase their maorities in the Senate and House.
Dream on, little bagger. dream on...
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)basketful of delusionals
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)A lot of stinking slime oozes out of them thar deplorables.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)I like the image you paint
sums em all up pretty well, yes?
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)I saw that,
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)yesterday evening before the debate. Found one undecided,and after a brief Clinton/Masteo sales pitch,bam,another undecided Dem back in the fold voting for a Dem full slate. Ever contact was enthusiastic about Hillary and were aware of Trump pulling the Billy Card and they were not please with someone going there.
Hundred contacts,99 all in with Hillary,only one fellow who said he had to vote for Stein. And that fellow was a Dem only via choice to vote for Bernie. Oh well,can't win them all,but what the heck,we try.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)tip of the cap to PW ...
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Adelson and his crowd are dumping millions into the Heck and Hardy campaigns. Most of the Ads are totally false,following their buddy Con Job's disinformation campaign,and with the diminished educational level of the area,very interesting conversations abound. Fertile ground for the STUPID.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)it may be a different and perhaps more colorful flavor of stupid, but sadly we have it here and I imagine every where else.
Regardless, thanks for rolling up your sleeves and getting out.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)and that will be the Reelection of Hillary. Then it is going to fall on you younger ones to carry on.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)I just saw one here in Illinois
less than one a day....but it's all cable
regular TV eats it bigly
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Ads are targeted by zip code. Dish used to do the same. And we are getting them in bunches,two to three minute runs. Watched the Vikes yesterday,just hammering us with Joe Heck and Hardy spots as well as anti prop 1 which is background checks.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)PinP?
I have that on one tube but not the one I watch while I do this crap
btw, I'm in the NEA/IEA....did I tell you that before?
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)The Ads really do not bother us,in fact most of them are so false one has a good laugh.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)No chance to win, and looking foolish and reptilian every day?
I ask not just because I've predicted his exit for over a year, but because he just told us he's never quitting. The latter sure means he's on his way out.
Gabi Hayes
(28,795 posts)Van Jones said he's glad if Hillary "lost," because he wants trump IN it to "win" it for as long as possible
great strategy, IMO
Arkana
(24,347 posts)This is Republican Armageddon if it holds, because dispirited voters won't just show up and ticket-split--they won't bother showing up at all, putting both houses of Congress in play.
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,139 posts)If this lead holds on election day the only thing the Dems won't have is filibuster proof majority in the Senate.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)Ventured over there. Complete denial as usual.
This NBC poll is fake! Um, it's a WSJ Poll, you know the Conservative rag owned by Murdock.
This was pre-debate, he'll be ahead soon because he won the debate. ROFLMAO!
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Coolest Ranger
(2,034 posts)if she whoops him by 14 points next month how big of a loss would that be for Trumph
mountain grammy
(26,621 posts)Maybe I'll sleep tonight. Note to self, quit arguing with idiots.
treestar
(82,383 posts)who so gleefully posted the bad looking polls a couple of weeks back and said we just didn't want to hear it!
kwolf68
(7,365 posts)it seems the third parties are doing MORE damage (though slight) to Clinton than to Trump. This is the same thing with the Perot vote in 1992, it was shown after analysis the Perot voters were NOT disgruntled conservatives.
Whatever, if the polls are even at +11% come Election Day it could be a massacre of epic proportions. That despite the witchhunts, the careless shit (though none illegal) Clinton did with her servers and the foundation. This despite Benghazi 24/7, etc....if ALL that couldn't get them into play against her then they have MAJOR issues in Republicanland....