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What a five-point shift could do = 455-83
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/08/1579635/-What-a-5-point-Shift-Could-Do... here’s a look at the current state of the race and what kind of shifts we can expect if there are various degrees of change. ....
... at the moment (Oct. 8), here’s the RealClearPolitics ‘no toss-ups’ map:
... (if) he loses 3 percent of his supporters to Hillary, for a 6 percent total swing? Well, that brings Iowa and Georgia over to the Light Side, and 538 says Missouri would swing at that point too, with Alaska just barely missing the cutoff. At 385-153, the rout is definitely on.
... at the moment (Oct. 8), here’s the RealClearPolitics ‘no toss-ups’ map:
... (if) he loses 3 percent of his supporters to Hillary, for a 6 percent total swing? Well, that brings Iowa and Georgia over to the Light Side, and 538 says Missouri would swing at that point too, with Alaska just barely missing the cutoff. At 385-153, the rout is definitely on.
Today, Oct. 11, that much has already happened, albeit the state-by-state analysis may be slightly different. The dKos forecast awaits state polling still and is currently at 95% chance of winning and 324-214.
.... 5 percent of his voters switching, for a net 10 percent shift. RCP sees Texas, Indiana, and South Carolina shifting under that scenario, while 538 says that Alaska, Montana, and Kansas would all join the mix too ....
..... I suspect that no matter what Trump does, he’s got a floor no lower than the high thirties. ....
..... I suspect that no matter what Trump does, he’s got a floor no lower than the high thirties. ....
Bottom line 455-83.[center]
2 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
[bHuff Post Slideshow]
Two days ago, NYT:
Two days ago, NYT:
More Than 160 Republican Leaders Don’t Support Donald Trump.
Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.
By KAREN YOURISH, LARRY BUCHANAN and ALICIA PARLAPIANO UPDATED October 9, 2016
This list includes leaders who have said they will not vote for Donald J. Trump, have withdrawn endorsements of him or have called for him to step down as the nominee. People shaded in blue have said they will vote for Hillary Clinton.
Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.
By KAREN YOURISH, LARRY BUCHANAN and ALICIA PARLAPIANO UPDATED October 9, 2016
This list includes leaders who have said they will not vote for Donald J. Trump, have withdrawn endorsements of him or have called for him to step down as the nominee. People shaded in blue have said they will vote for Hillary Clinton.