***New Indiana Poll*** Monmouth U: Trump +4

[VMA131Marine]

That's terrible for Trump given who his running mate is.

[tonyt53]

1. Pence would have lost anyway. I also do not think Trump will carry IN.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Pence only joined the ticket because he was going to lose in the Governor's race. nt

[jcgoldie]

6. I think Pence may be the one most damaged by the sexual assault allegations

Up until the past week I thought Pence made a pretty good political gamble because everyone would blame Trump for the pending election defeat and Pence would come out of it with reputation laundered as the conservative leader republicans wished would have been at the top of the ticket. But staying on through this mess has to seriously bring questions to his sincerity given his evangelical BS he spouts.

[aaaaaa5a]

9. I thought he was setting himself up nicely for the GOP race in 2020.

But now I think he is starting to hurt himself. After another presidential butt-kicking, there is going to be a strong anti-trump resentment in the GOP race in 2020. Because Pence stayed on the ticket, he is open to this criticism. I think a more establishment candidate wins the GOP nomination in 2020. Pence can't be that guy if he is with Trump in 2016.

[radical noodle]

2. I also heard Bayh is slightly ahead for Senate

and Gregg is like 12 points ahead in the governor's race! I hope it's true.

[TroyD]

13. Bayh leads by 6 points

Yes, Bayh leads by 6 points for Senate.

Hopefully Bayh can hang on for another 3 weeks.

The Senate race is the most important race in Indiana, IMO.

It could determine control of the Senate.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-indiana-presidential-senate-races-229796

[radical noodle]

15. Yes Bayh is important

But Gregg is critical to public schools too. They've been decimated by Daniels and Pence.

[aaaaaa5a]

4. If HRC is this close in Indiana, I don't see how she can lose Ohio. nt

[LiberalFighter]

8. If she loses Ohio it would be because of the demographics.

They have more older and whiter voters.

[aaaaaa5a]

10. Indiana and Ohio match up pretty evenly.

Indiana is a red state and Ohio is a purple state because Ohio has larger cities. Indiana is basically Ohio without Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati.

If democrats are running well in Indiana, its because they are doing reasonably well with white working class demographics. Indiana has only one city, Indianapolis. This city is smaller than Cleveland and Cincinnati. The minority population is considerably less. Indianapolis isn't big enough to carry a state the way Cleveland and/or Cincinnati can in Ohio. That is the only difference between the two states.

Democrats are winning the senate race and the governors race in Indiana. The presidential race is close. If this is the case in Indiana then white working class voters must be leaning democratic. Therefore in neighboring Ohio, the numbers for democrats can't be far off.


Indiana is interesting. Its considered a red state. But we could be sending 2 dem senators to congress. And we could elect a dem governor. Obama carried the state in 2008.

[whatthehey]

5. There's actually something slightly troubling with these suddenly close deep red states

Trump nationally is about 6 points back in most poll aggregators.

If he is losing huge ratios of the normal R margins in places like TX, UT, GA, AZ, AK and IN, he must be picking up support in other states. Obama beat McCain by a bit over and Romney by a bit under 6. Both their margins were significant in these states (IN 08 excepted). Yet other than IA and maybe a bit in OH I'm not seeing him covering the ground he'd need to to lose such huge red state leads and yet still only be 6 behind.

[VMA131Marine]

7. Poll aggregators like 538 and Sam Wang

use state polls to project the electoral college outcome because they are more accurate. In the end, the national vote is not important.

[whatthehey]

14. I understand that, just wondering where the gains are to match as I'm not seeing them offhand

Especially the much closer TX state polls (a 10+ point R decrease) would need to come from some pretty big states not to make an impact but maintain national 6pt gap.

[geek tragedy]

11. Pence is toast. The stink of Trump never washes away nt

[radical noodle]

16. I hope so

[DCBob]

12. Remarkable.

Very possible Hillary wins Indiana if things keep going as they are now.