***GWU Battleground Poll: Clinton +8***

[piechartking]

Previously, she was up only +2, 6-point swing in her favor.

"WASHINGTON (Oct. 17, 2016)—Hillary Clinton is beginning to pull away from Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll. Almost half (47 percent) of likely voters surveyed chose the Democratic candidate while only 39 percent chose the Republican nominee. Clinton gained 5 percentage points since the previous GW Battleground Poll in early September, while Trump lost 1. Third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein collectively lost 3 points, polling at 8 and 2 percent respectively. Four percent of the likely voters polled were still undecided.

The poll was conducted Oct. 8-13, after a tape of Trump from “Access Hollywood” came to light, and spanned the second presidential debate. Amid those campaign milestones, the GW Battleground Poll found a clear majority of voters (62 percent) think Clinton will win, while less than a third (27 percent) believe Trump will take the presidency.

“Read together, these poll results indicate that increasing numbers of voters are accepting the Hillary Clinton/Democratic Party frame of this election as a referendum on Donald Trump’s unfitness for the presidency,” said Michael Cornfield, associate professor at GW’s Graduate School of Political Management and research director of GW’s Center for Political Management. “Down-ballot it will be fascinating to watch Democrats continue to lash Republicans about Trump and to see how Republicans situate themselves with respect to him.”"

https://mediarelations.gwu.edu/new-gw-battleground-poll-clinton-begins-pull-away-trump-and-voters-think-she%E2%80%99ll-win

[Cicada]

1. Three top notch polls today, hrc up 4,8 and 10, average 7

I can live with that

[triron]

2. Good news.

Would like to know which states are considered 'battleground' (e.e. is Arizona or Georgia included?)

[piechartking]

3. It's ambiguous

I read the article to determine which states, but the article almost reads as though it's a National Poll - but one that is named "Battleground". So I don't know.

[titaniumsalute]

4. The name of this poll has always been The Battleground

But it is national, not anything drilled down to the state level. The bottom of the article has this boilerplate.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll
The George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. GW’s Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) and the School of Media and Public Affairs (SMPA) serve as the university’s home for the partnership. GW’s Estelle and Melvin Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades.

The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Oct. 8-13 and included a protocol for reaching mobile phone users. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

[piechartking]

5. oh ok - thanks! n/t

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Average poll

Throw out LA Times and Rasmussen and she's up on average over 8 points. This is a 7-10 point lead now. 3 weeks to go.

+11 in a CBS poll released tonight.