What's going on with Ohio?

[geek tragedy]

I know Nate Silver and others are projecting Clinton to win there, and I know Trump has zero ground game there and is engaged in a stupid civil war with the state GOP and Kasich. And Clinton people seem to be confident.

But:

1) almost every quality live person poll of Ohio is showing Trump with a statistically significant lead

2) Early vote statistics show Clinton substantially underperforming the Obama 2012 effort there (same case as Iowa, but offset by Clinton overperforming in VA, NC, FL).

So, what really is going on there? It's bizarre to see the early voting stats and Trump's Ohio polling numbers defy gravity as he collapses nationally.


Edited to add: for comparison sake, in 2012 President Obama won by 4% nationally and won by 3% in Ohio, and lead virtually every poll there. Clinton's lead over Trump nationally is around 7% and she trails, or at best is tied, in Ohio. The two polls for Ohio today--today--show a tied race and Trump +4.

[still_one]

1. Do you have a link? Almost every poll I have seen either shows it close without the statistical

lead you are saying

[Democat]

2. It does seem strange. Is there one big issue in Ohio?

Like coal or fracking or something?

[LisaL]

10. Coal, I think.

[geek tragedy]

12. Obama won OH in 2012 despite the phrase "Obama's war on coal"

being ubiquitous.

[doc03]

61. One issue the Republicans have capitalized on is the Obama

recovery. They have managed to blame the Democratic Governor (Strickland) for the recession and Kasich and the Republicans have
successfully taken the credit for the recovery.

[still_one]

3. Here are several polls and it is a tie essentially

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

[geek tragedy]

4. if you count only the live-person interviews (no robopolls or Internet polls):

CNN: Trump +4
NBC: Trump +1
Monmouth: Clinton +2
Quinnipiac: Trump +5
Fox News (which is a legit pollster): +5

Clinton does better with robopolls (PPP) and internet polls.

Obama won the national vote by 4% in 2012 and won OH by 3%

Ohio is running bigly pro-Trump compared to the rest of the country this election cycle.

[triron]

22. New Ohio Q poll

HRC +1

[winstars]

5. I see white people...

[tribe-time]

6. the polls 538 is using has her up 2.3%

polls only forecast

[geek tragedy]

8. that's based largely on national polling. State polling shows him doing significantly better

there than he is in national polling.

Take, for example, Quinnipiac polls from today:

Colorado +8 Clinton
Pennsylvania +6 Clinton
Florida +4 Clinton
Ohio TIED

The other three numbers make perfect sense given Clinton's national numbers. Ohio's are part of the big WTF.

Her polling numbers tend to be better in Georgia and Arizona than they do in Ohio.

[Gabi Hayes]

7. why aren't she and her surrogates endlessly hammering trump's buying all that Chinese steel? it's

still a major aspect of what's left of heavy manufacturing in Ohio

[Demsrule86]

13. they are doing just that using Teamsters and auto workers...

And Obama has been here campaigning...he is beloved in Ohio as he saved our state with the auto rescue and the clunker program...and of course we still have road work going on that was funded by the early stimulus. I have seen ads against Portman recently...so I think that race is becoming more competent as well.

[Demsrule86]

9. The only poll I saw had older white voters...the

POC voter was marked "NT" and so was the under 49 voter. I think she will win Ohio.

[pampango]

11. I've heard that Ohio is becoming older and less diverse compared to the rest of the country.

Both would make them more likely to vote for republicans than in past elections.

[geek tragedy]

20. This much movement compared to the rest of the country is astonishing though.

Ohio has gone from +1% R nationally to +7-10% nationally. In 4 years.

During the same time period, it's gone from being +2% more Democratic than Florida to being +4-8% more Republican than Florida, which has stayed fairly consistent in remaining about +3% Republican compared to the rest of the country.

[OnionPatch]

52. Also, Ohio cities have been losing population for years now.

The cities are where the Dem-leaning voters live.

I wonder if this may be why states like Virginia and NC are becoming more blue. Many people from the rust belt have moved to big cities in those states.

[Dem2]

15. White suburban people I talk to

Would vote for an extinction-level virus event before voting for Hillary.

White people be violently angry.

[geek tragedy]

17. in other states white surburban voters are choosing Clinton over Trump by wide margins.

are there just a lot more deplorables living in Ohio suburbs than in other places?

[irisblue]

23. angry old white guys who are aware they are no longer the top of good times mountain

and there is a lot of teaparty sexism racism and poor education in the semi suburban to rural areas. SE Ohio, except for Athens (Ohio University) will be red. sigh

[Dem2]

44. Depends on the area

I think I live in an old wingnut town, so they're especially obnoxious.

[BlueProgressive]

18. As I understand it, Ohio is WHITER than many of

the other 'swing' states, at 80 percent white--- or at least some of the news I've been hearing says it's "more white" than the others.

I think we're getting to the point that many of the nominal Trump supporters, who aren't "true believers", who will give his name in response to a poll, may be less motivated to show up and vote for him-- rank-and-file folks who would normally vote Republican, but aren't batshit crazy, and not too wild about Trump's abusive treatment of women.

[geek tragedy]

21. seems that there's a lot more true believers for Trump in OH than in other states.

NOTHING is hurting him there. Not the disastrous first debate, nor the Machado meltdown, nor the tapes, nor the second debate thuggery, nor the accusations of sexual assault.

He really does have some weird magical hold on white men there.

[BlueProgressive]

26. That may be true. I actually "sort-of" know someone down there

who seemed to be a Trump partisan early on... (actually sort of an enemy of mine)

The punchline is, that particular person has been in and out of jail over domestic abuse type charges-- just the kind of guy who would probably think all of Trump's bragging about how he treated women was "pretty cool!"

[Johnny2X2X]

24. Hillary will win Ohio

You can't go by 1 or 2 polls, there are many that say she is leading there and she is also killing it in early voting.

[LisaL]

25. Early voting is down in OH for two largest democratic counties (Cuyahoga and Franklin)

[vdogg]

27. Because it started 10 days later than last election.

[LisaL]

29. Yes, but all the other counties aren't lagging so they caught up already.

So republicans must be voting in droves.

[triron]

28. Not according

to data I've seen. I hope you are right though.

[MattP]

30. Didn't Husted knock a bunch of people off the rolls?

[LisaL]

33. He tried, but court overruled him.

"The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted on Friday in a case involving removal of names from voter registration rolls."

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/09/23/voter-roll-purge-ruling.html

[Buckeye_Democrat]

31. There might be fewer African Americans involved this time, combined with...

... many blue-collar workers who I've heard blame NAFTA for this state's economic woes for a couple decades. Trump surely appeals to many of them because of his strong anti-NAFTA comments early in his campaign.

According to a recent poll, Trump is doing the best among Ohioans with some college or two-year degrees, whereas Clinton is leading big among people with at least 4-year degrees AND people without high school diplomas.

I would be more interested in polling of people here with blue-collar "skilled trades" since I suspect they make up many of the supporters with "some" college education. I've worked with so many of those guys who acted like they'd earned a PhD in astrophysics after they got through their trade schools or community colleges, but it might have seemed that way to them since their writing and general academic skills were pretty sad. If their specialized jobs are more insecure, as I suspect, most of them don't strike me as willing to further their educations because they're not academically inclined in the first place.

They're obviously not "everyone" here! Ohio has a mix of just about every demographic. There's not many Hispanics here compared to some other "battleground" states, however, so Ohio isn't as representative of the country as a whole in that regard.

[geek tragedy]

35. There's not much difference between Clinton and Obama in terms of demographic appeal,

it seems really that they're digging Drumpf a lot more than they did Romney.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

39. That idea isn't supported by Quinnipiac.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/chart-trump-is-underperforming-romney-among-whites-in-swing-states/article/2598964

A new poll from Quinnipiac University (which has tended to be favorable to Trump) finds that he is underperforming Romney among whites in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida — all three states that Romney lost.

Don't get me wrong. I mostly blame white males in Ohio for allowing Trump to have a chance.

I won't be at all surprised if African American voters don't get as involved this time, though. Cuyahoga County is showing less early voting, supposedly.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/09/25/1-black-voters-see-clinton-as-best-choice-if-they-vote.html

While interviews with black voters in northeastern Ohio showed that Clinton might be considered the better choice, she has failed to inspire many, raising concerns about how many black voters will show up at the polls.

[geek tragedy]

43. The Wash Examiner post is from 2 months ago.

This election will be an interesting test as to whether ground games actually make a difference. Public polling and early voting seem to indicate that Clinton's ground game is working wonders in NC but is essentially irrelevant in OH. Query whether that actually proves to be the case.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

48. Time will tell.

Around Dayton, I only saw Clinton volunteers and signs outside of the early voting building downtown. I don't see as many Trump signs here compared to Romney signs (mostly in rural areas) either.

It's a sad state of affairs that Trump is doing well among so many white males all over the country, not just here.

If Ohio had a larger Hispanic population, like in the southwest, I don't think it would be as worrisome. I'm not going to worry about Ohio too much thanks to other states "picking up the slack," although it will be embarrassing to me if Trump wins this state.

[geek tragedy]

49. we won't really know until election night.

but right now it looks like Clinton sent the A-team for GOTV efforts to Florida and NC and sent the JV team to Iowa and OH.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-more-states_b_12517738.html

Ohio does not have party registration (the states identifies “party” from the last primary a voter participated in), so a geographic analysis is more informative of “party” in Ohio. Statewide, absentee ballot requests were down 2.6% from 2012. At first blush, Democrats look well-positioned, with 175,807 requests originating from Cuyahoga (Cleveland), which is 16.1% of all requests statewide. The problem is that this is down 16.1% from 2012. In Franklin (Columbus), requests were off 16.3% of their 2012 levels


The Democratic position has likely only gotten worse throughout the week. Cuyahoga and Franklin post their individual-level early voting data online (this includes mail and in-person activity), and Democrats are down from their 2012 levels by 18.1% in Cuyahoga and 31.9% in Franklin. In the remaining forty-nine remaining counties for which there is comparable 2012 public data, early voting levels are up 0.1%.

It's very possible that it's just demographics and that Clinton really is struggling with certain downscale white demographics, and that it's just so happens that there are a lot more of them in OH and IA than in FL and NC.

[triron]

32. 538 Now cast

has her winning Ohio at 67%.

[alcibiades_mystery]

34. I suggest nobody listen to geek and his chorus of downers on Ohio

If it is as they say, there's nothing that can be done at this point.

It probably isn't though, so go ahead and get out the vote and let's win this election.

The OP is pointless worrying at this stage.

[geek tragedy]

36. no, it's important to understand why Ohio and Iowa are lurching right while states like NC and FL

are moving left (not to mention AZ and GA).

Virtually every other state in the union is pretty much moving in the direction you'd expect when the national margin goes from +4 D to +8D, but those two states are swimming against the current pretty hard.

[alcibiades_mystery]

37. Not three weeks out it isn't

It's just your little obsession this cycle. That's cool, but not important.

[geek tragedy]

40. technically, nothing said at DU is important at all nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

41. Aaaah

Carry on, then.

Maybe you can post 200 more "Why aren't we winning Ohio?" posts before election day. I believe in you!

[geek tragedy]

47. eh, as someone who's donated a fair amount I kind of want to see

if that money is being put to good use in places like Ohio.

If I could earmark my donations for FL and NC, I'd be a lot more inclined to donate the max. But, not so much if it's going to be wasted on the failing operation in Ohio.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

50. Are you a New Yorker as well?

Is there an explanation for New Yorkers mostly hating Ohio State's football team?

Map of "most hated" teams:


LOL! I didn't think college football was followed very much in NY anyway. Same goes for Maine and Massachusetts. It's not like Ohio State plays schools from those states very often (compared to Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin).

It's not important anyway, but I would've thought teams in the South would be more disliked due to their Yankee-bashing.

[DemonGoddess]

45. I'd say the level of whiteness in the poll is where the skew

comes from. I know plenty of people in Ohio, and let me tell you, women LOATHE both Trump and Pence. Same as in Indiana, where I live. So yes, he gets the gun nuts, no question there. There are many of them, unfortunately. But women outnumber them.

[Maeve]

38. FWIW, the Republicans have benefited from having Kasich in office

Not that I approve of him, but....he's successfully blamed Strickland for the Dubya recession problems and he's kept his head down well enough to look like he's working for Ohio. Well, when he wasn't running (poorlu) for president...

As noted, we are also becoming and older and whiter state, very rural with a growing drug problem in places that used to be considered 'safe' and that leads to uneasiness and fear. One of the reasons my Mom moved into town was that she didn't feel safe out in the country alone anymore.

[dsc]

42. Ohio is quite white (85%)

and has a significant appilacian population. Only Barack Obama and Sherrod Brown have won statewide in Ohio since 2006. That makes 3 wins (Obama 08,12 and Brown 12) vs 11 losses (5 statewide offices in 10, 5 statewide offices in 14 and Portman in 10). In short, Ohio is become more Republican as it becomes whiter, older, and less college educated that many other states.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

51. Gerrymandering here hasn't helped matters either.

I helped my blind brother fill out his absentee ballot on Saturday night (all-Democrat like he requested), and there were THIRTEEN Republicans on his ballot who were running unopposed! I assume that Democrats consider his district to be a "lost cause."

I hope Obama and Holder make some headway stopping the redrawing of district maps into all kinds of weird pro-GOP shapes!

[dsc]

53. gerrymandering certainly hurts the legislative races

and that kills our farm team for statewide offices but the fact is Ohio has been problematic for quite some time. We lost all five elections in 94, 98, and 02. In 06 we won all five but then lost all five again in 10 and 14. In addition we won only 2 Senate races and three Presidential elections. That is 10 statewide wins and 31 statewide losses. A pretty bad record by any measure.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

55. It hurts in federal-level House of Representative races too.

Ohio has many 4-year universities and it's 25th in the country in such degrees according to recent DoEd data, but I'm not sure how many of them stay here. I would have moved to Los Alamos, NM for a job years ago if not for the poor health of my parents at the time. I took a damn factory job here after graduation instead.

It's a pretty "white" state. There's slightly more African Americans here compared to the national average, but there's FAR fewer other minorities.

Older too? That might be true. There's lots of "baby boomers" here, some of whom might have the impression that social programs need cut in order to save their Social Security and Medicare! Never mind that many Republicans and Libertarians would like nothing more than to destroy those retirement programs.

[BobbyDrake]

46. The media's manufactured horse race is down to one state: Ohio

But by god, they're going to milk it for every page click possible!

[doc03]

54. I don't get this Trump has a zero ground game in Ohio. Trump signs are everywhere

somebody is sure putting a lot of money in here. Except for the several "Hillary for Prison" signs I have seen
only one Hillary sign. This weekend I took a trip to the Ohiopyle State Park in PA. That is a little over one hundred miles
I passed thru a few miles of Ohio , the northern panhandle of WV and about 75 miles of PA. I saw an electronic billboard for Trump, Trump flags, a 8' x 4' home made Trump sign and hundreds of Trump/Pence signs. I took a different route going there and coming back same on both highways. I fear we are going to find out on November 8th that there will be a very large crossover vote for Trump and millions that never voted are going to come out. You may be right Trump has no ground game here but he apparently has a lot
of people willing to go out on their own and run one. It doesn't look anywhere near to what the polls are saying from this vantage point.

[geek tragedy]

56. it's all organic for Trump in Ohio.

yard signs are kind of infamous for being a poor use of $$

[doc03]

57. Their was a guy on TV a couple weeks ago complaining he had put out 200 signs

around the valley and someone had took most of them and some that were left had a swastika painted on them.
He said that just gave him more resolve and he was going to put up 400 signs this time. There must be a lot of
those kind of supporters. I never saw it like this back in 2008 or 2012. I know several people that say they are
going to vote for the first time this year. I fear we are in for a big surprise come Nov 8th.

[LisaL]

59. One guy put 400 signs. He can't vote 400 times.

So you should understands signs don't represent the outcome of the election.

[doc03]

60. He is sure one motivated SOB isn't he? A sign in someones yard

does tell you who they are voting for doesn't it? I sure as hell wouldn't let anyone put a Trump sign in my yard.
It is kind of scary when you drive a mile and see better than half the houses have Trump signs and not one Hillary.

[LisaL]

62. How do you know he isn't putting those signs by the highways?

[doc03]

63. Well yea they are by the highways in peoples front yards where else would

they be? If someone put a Trump sign in my yard and I wasn't a Trump fan I would
take it down, wouldn't you? If someone has a Trump flag right under the US flag on their flag pole I would say they are
Trump supporter. If someone spends the time or money to make a 4' x 8' sign and put it in their yard I would say he is probably a Trump supporter.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

58. A long-distance Jewish "girlfriend" in Connecticut sees many Trump signs too.

That state is safely blue, nonetheless.

EDIT: She was very worried that Connecticut would vote for Trump based on the many yard signs she's seen, but I assured her otherwise.

[Awsi Dooger]

64. Short term partisan index shift

Ohio normally votes very close to the national percentage, but slightly redder. I used to post those trends here more than a decade ago, long before Nate Silver got involved. Frankly I wish he hadn't ruined political wagering.

Those midwestern manufacturing states are resisting the left shift. I suspect it's partially demographics and a chunk of it is simple emphasis. Trump went out of his way to mention job loss in Ohio in both debates. That was hardly unintentional. I couldn't believe Hillary didn't do the same, with just a few sentences of concern and solution.

A few words in those debates, especially that record-setting first debate, can be worth more than dozens of speeches and hundreds of volunteers.

If Hillary wins nationwide by 4+ points, Ohio will be dragged along.