Stu Rothenberg: Trump’s path to an electoral college victory isn’t narrow. It’s non-existent.

[brooklynite]

Washington Post

The trajectory of the 2016 presidential race — which will result in a Hillary Clinton victory — remains largely unchanged from May, when Donald Trump and Clinton were in the process of wrapping up their nominations.

But what has changed recently is Clinton’s likely winning margin. For many weeks, even months, I have believed that Clinton would defeat Trump by three to six points. If anything, that range now looks a bit low, with the Democratic nominee apparently headed for a more convincing victory, quite possibly in the four-to-eight point range.

Trump continues to be his own worst enemy, saying or tweeting things that only fuel chatter about his current and past views, values and behavior. His comments about people — from Vladimir Putin and Alicia Machado to some of the women who have accused him of sexual assault — have kept the focus on him at a time when he should be making the election a referendum on Clinton.

No, Trump’s supporters have not turned on him. But he trails badly with only a few weeks to go until Nov. 8, and he must broaden his appeal to have any chance of winning. That is now impossible.

[vlyons]

1. Some Republicans would vote for Charles Manson

if he had an R by his name.

[NewJeffCT]

2. I think Rothenberg is being conservative

In 2012, Obama had a great ground game/GOTV operation. Romney's was mediocre. So, Obama outperformed the final polls by 2-3% and won by 4% overall.

Clinton has inherited Obama's operation and they've been focused on GOTV for months. Trump has almost no ground game/GOTV operation - it sucks even compared to Romney and McCain. He's relying on his lovable personality to bring his followers to the polls. If they feel they're going to lose, they might not turn out at all and there will be nobody to call them to ask them to vote. I think her ground game is going to make at least a 3-4% difference from the polls. So, if Clinton is up 8-9 points, should could win by 11-12% or more.