Obama Cracks A Nate Silver Joke At Turkey Pardon

[DonViejo]

IGOR BOBIC 2:23 PM EST, WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 21, 2012

President Obama cracked a joke about New York Times polling guru Nate Silver at a White House turkey pardon ceremony on Wednesday.

Americans were invited to choose via a Facebook poll which of two birds -- Gobbler or Cobbler -- should be pardoned and named the official National Thanksgiving Turkey for 2012 on Tuesday. Obama announced Cobbler the winner, invoking Silver, whose model correctly predicted the electoral results in 49 out of 50 states on November 6th.

"Once again Nate Silver nailed it," Obama joked, before gesturing a cross over the turkey and completing the pardon. "The guy is amazing."

-30-

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-cracks-nate-silver-joke-at-turkey-pardon

[oswaldactedalone]

1. He correctly picked 50 of 50 states on Nov. 6th

49 of 50 in '08. Get yer facts straight.

[Rstrstx]

3. 49 and a half

He had Florida at exactly 50:50 odds on his final run

[geek tragedy]

5. Here's some irony though, from October 19:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/20/oct-19-after-romney-gains-should-obama-concede-florida/

All of this should call into question whether Florida represents a wise use of resources for Mr. Obama.

The same is partially true for Mr. Romney, although the situation is not quite symmetrical. If Mr. Romney were to disarm there first, while Mr. Obama’s campaign continued to contest the state, Mr. Obama might improve the numbers enough to bring it closer to the national averages and improve the state’s ranking on the tipping-point list. If the reverse were true — and Mr. Romney kept pouring resources into the state while Mr. Obama did not — it would presumably go from somewhat Republican-leaning to being even more strongly in Mr. Romney’s column, but would not pass through the electoral tipping point.

Still, if the recent polls and the FiveThirtyEight forecast are right, Mr. Obama’s efforts to compete in Florida mostly serve the function of a bluff. They might be enough to prevent Mr. Romney from taking the state for granted, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Florida will be central to the electoral math on Nov. 6.

The reason that the forecast model views Pennsylvania as being more important than Florida is slightly more subtle than this, however.

Both states offer high upside for the candidates. But Mr. Romney has more incentive to pursue the high-risk path in Pennsylvania because his alternatives are worse, meaning that his opportunity costs are lower.

Mr. Romney certainly doesn’t need Pennsylvania to win the election, but going for broke there is arguably a better strategy for him than having to pick off four or five states where they are now tied or where Mr. Obama holds a small lead.

Mr. Obama, conversely, just needs to hold his ground in those same states. Trying to pull Florida back into his column would represent a heavier lift — and probably an inferior strategy given the recent polls there.

[Cha]

7. And, the Winner Goes to

Community Organizing!

So much for "the Denver Debate"..

Still, Florida has been polled so densely that the overall trend has become clear: Mr. Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there.

Thanks for the link, geek

[Samantha]

6. He had Florida blue on November 5th

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021722676#post33

See post 33. I checked Nate everyday and I particularly had my eye on Florida. Is Florida the 50th state people are saying he miscalled? If so, that is incorrect.

Sam

[geek tragedy]

8. Looks like he had it about 50/50

But, the Obama people never thought they were just bluffing in Florida. Never.

The best prognosticator/data processing/modeling was always in Chicago.

[Samantha]

9. What makes you say that? It was light blue when I posted that (n/t)

[Samantha]

11. Here is another November 5 post I made - Nate gave Obama a 52.5% chance of winning FL

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1722558
Post #7

Sam

[geek tragedy]

12. True, but Florida did not go from being a "decisive" lead for Romney

to an Obama victory within three weeks.

Silver's model wound up getting it right at the very end on Florida, but it was dead wrong in mid October.

[Hyper_Eye]

17. Those are the results the model produced. Nate deserves credit for 50/50.

It's based on the current data. Florida turned blue right at the end. I believe the model switched it because that's what the data showed and I think it matches up with reality. We pulled out Florida in the end but I think Romney did have a lead there in mid-October. There is nothing that disputes that. The model changes with data and the final data showed a blue Florida. It was blue in the middle of the night before the polls opened and he deserves credit for 50/50. In 2008 he got 49/50.

[geek tragedy]

19. Silver's modeling is much better than his strategic analysis. nt

[Samantha]

23. I saw what happened during that time frame and my opinion is Florida was fickle

Depending on what issue rose to the forefront of the moment, Florida tilted left, then right, then left again at the last moment. Silver changed his prediction twice because Florida changed its mind twice. One of the prominent indicators of that was the heightened anger of the African-American community at the never-ending efforts to block their votes. Ironically enough, it might possibly have been that outrage of the voters in Florida that drove up the numbers to unexpected turnout rates. That turnout was a significant factor in the tipping of Florida from red to blue. And Silver saw it both times.

Sam

[Cha]

10. Thanks for your link, Samantha.. nm

[mzmolly]

14. Actually, he had Florida about 50.2 O vs. 49.8 R

IIRC correctly?

[Rstrstx]

21. It's still up at 538

Final forecast was exactly tied, the state was colored the lightest blue on his prediction map but am not sure why (he had no color for exact ties? or a tie goes to the incumbent perhaps if forced to choose?)

[mzmolly]

22. The blog is confusing as the final forecast, rounded the numbers. However,

if you hover over the "State-by-State Probabilities" map, Florida specifically - you'll see Silver predicted Obama had a 50.3% chance of winning vs. Romney's 49.7% chance as of November 6th, 2012.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Rstrstx]

27. Ah

[Caroline-Vivienne]

2. SWOOOON!!!

Obama and Nate Silver in one post??

*faints*

[Thrill]

4. Nate's books about to fly off the shelf

[meti57b]

13. I suggest browsing through the book before buying ........It's heavy reading and in fine print.

I plan to finish the book, but if I don't, it is still a nice souvenir of the election.

[Honeycombe8]

15. So the other turkey will be executed? nt

[freshwest]

25. Gosh, I hope not.

[Honeycombe8]

26. I've since heard they were BOTH pardoned. I'd thought only one of them was. Phew.nt

[felix_numinous]

16. I wonder what the real numbers

would be if we counted all the stolen votes.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

20. If the President Obama mentioned me in a positive way, I'd be pretty thrilled, I must admit. Good

for Nate Silver.

[davidpdx]

24. It was pretty funny

Silver should be honored to have had Obama make a joke about how good he is.