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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary has a 93% chance of winning according to the NY Times
She has 272 Electoral votes locked in, that includes Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin. If you toy around with the path to victory thing at the bottom of the page you can see that Trump has to win at the very least 6 states to win, and some of those have Hillary with a more than 80% chance of winning.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0
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Hillary has a 93% chance of winning according to the NY Times (Original Post)
minivan2
Oct 2016
OP
If she had 272 electoral votes "locked in" already she would have near 100% chance of winning. n/t
PoliticAverse
Oct 2016
#1
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)1. If she had 272 electoral votes "locked in" already she would have near 100% chance of winning. n/t
Last edited Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:39 PM - Edit history (1)
triron
(22,020 posts)2. Election consortium (Princeton) has HRC win at 99% bayesian
97% random drift.
Predictwise 91%
Benchmark 94%
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)3. Virginia and Colorado are the firewall
in case Ohio and/or Iowa don't work out.
And the firewall is holding.
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)4. Been following this every day
Basically, in order to win he has to sweep all the close states, win FL, and then win a state that is currently at least 94% for Hillary. He has no chance.
triron
(22,020 posts)5. 538 is far below any of the other predictors (~86%)!!
wtf??