*If* the FBI News Affects the Numbers Per Nate Silver

[Doctor Jack]

If the nonstory FBI bullshit does affect the numbers, Nate Silver seems to think it would likely ahve the same impact that Comeys press conference in July had, which was a 2 point drop in Clintons lead. That would bring her down to a 4 point lead or so nationally and around 70% odds on 538.

[geek tragedy]

1. it almost certainly will affect the polls, via response rates if nothing else.

what no one knows is if it will affect voting behavior

[vdogg]

8. I think it will increase democratic turn out.

We're pissed at this naked attempt to politicize the FBI and most of us will cross hot burning coals just for the chance to vote against Trump.

[JRLeft]

9. Some of the people will have already voted by then.

I think you're right.

[Godhumor]

2. Actually, he used that as a comparison point. He doesn't think the fall would be that bad

Said Winner being a tragicomic figure and Clinton not being directly implicated depresses that (As well as less undecideds now).

[Doctor Jack]

5. I meant it as the worst case scenario

Not what is likely to happen

[Dem2]

3. That's NOT what he said

"But it’s not clear that the situations are comparable, especially if the “investigative steps” have nothing directly to do with Clinton or her email server and won’t be completed until after the election. My hunch (like The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel’s) is that Weiner is such a tragicomic figure, and such a lightning rod for news coverage, that he could insulate Clinton from some of the fallout she might have suffered otherwise. There are also fewer undecided voters now than there were in July, voter choices are more locked in, and many people have already voted — which could lessen the impact."

JFC, don't put people into a panic over bad reporting!

[Tom Rivers]

4. exactly my reaction

as soon as weiner's name was brought up as a big part of the story it turned into a comedy and lessens most of the impact it would have on the election. it makes it look like the right wing and media are just grasping at straws for anything they can use against hillary.

[MADem]

6. He might not be factoring in the "Oh no you did-n't" element.

That's where people who were a bit lazy about voting and haven't yet early voted get so bullshit at the way people are trying to make something outta nothing that they get up off their asses, grab granny, auntie, and cousin Selma, and truck on down and do NOW what they intended to do on November 8 (but may have skipped if life gets in the way).

Early voting--it's what's breaks the glass ceiling.

[Hugin]

7. It's the Senate races the Returds are working on with this horseshit.

They've given up hope on Trumpling.

[BlueStateLib]

10. Timing is everything, I predict this will cost more then 2 points