538 Podcast On the Possible Impact of the FBI Story

[Doctor Jack]

The first 15 minutes or so are about it.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-countdown-10-days/

If you don't feel like listening, here is the gist of it: If it does affect her numbers, it will probably only be by about 1 or 2 points, and in that case she would still win by "a comfortable margin". The final point which they make is "We can have things that sometimes move the polls but it won't necessarily make too much of an impact because the race wasn't that close to begin with. For this to truly have an impact, we probably needed to have a closer race than we already do. Polling errors can and do occur but usually not be the amount necessary for Trump to come back."

[mucifer]

1. Plus trump keeps telling his supporters "voting doesn't matter"

maybe some of them will listen to him and not vote.

[Madam45for2923]

2. I listen to 538 podcasts on iTunes~and with election coming they're recording daily now!

Till election!

Thanks for the what's up! Sounds good. Looking forward to listening tomorrow...

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

12. So do I

Listen to them at work.

[exboyfil]

3. I think the chief concern is for down ballot

races. Still anything that puts that maniac closer to the White House is scary.

This may have cost the Democrats one to two Senate seats and five to ten House seats.

[mucifer]

4. kirk lost the senate seat in Illinois. No way he's coming back from his asshole remark

The rest of the seats are pretty concerning tho.

[semby2]

5. Other races

And the House, Senate and local races?

[okaawhatever]

6. Thanks for the info. I'll listen later. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Mostly about impact of October surprise in past cycles

They say it's typically 2 points or less, which Hillary should be able to survive.

The concern is a 2 point Trump benefit followed by polling error which also favors Trump.

There was a mention that the ABC national poll narrowed considerably because many Trump supporters moved from registered voter category to likely voter category, and ABC places great emphasis on likely voter designation.

I've listened to all of them the past few days. They started making it a daily feature earlier this week. Normally a half hour but plenty of filler. Today they were talking about their meals. It could easily be shortened by half.

[ailsagirl]

8. Important words: "The race wasn't that close to begin with" nt

[EricMaundry]

9. K 'n R

[cheezmaka]

10. K n R

[Coyotl]

11. Republicans are working to rehash a non-story, Democrats are working to get out the vote.

Kaivan 🇺🇸10 days ‏@KaivanShroff 12 hours ago
Republicans are working to rehash a non-story on #hillarysemail.
Democrats are working to get out the vote.
Think about that for a second.

James Comey unintentionally handed Hillary Clinton an Election Day gift

The net effect of the vastly overhyped Clinton email story is not as obvious as it seems. The ordinary impulse is to conclude it has been terribly detrimental to her campaign. The reality is much different.

Notwithstanding mainstream pundits’ claims that Hillary Clinton should be winning by a gazillion points, she was never going to coast to the White House. Anti-Clinton forces in politics and media have long girded themselves for this final showdown, prepared to use virtually any and all means to take her down. That includes direct threats of violence against her and systematic intimidation and marginalization of her supporters.

On September 9th, I argued that it was absolutely unavoidable: “There was going to be a manufactured Clinton scandal in 2016. Her opponents were bound to try to derail her with some fabricated Whitewater-style smear, something the corporate media would sink their teeth into and refuse to let go. It could have been a dozen other trumped-up issues. It ended up being the emails.” .............