The Dangers of Donald Trump
by Ross Douthat at the NYTimes
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-of-donald-trump.html?_r=0
"SNIP.............
The third likely highly-plausible peril, and by far the most serious, is a rapid escalation of risk in every geopolitical theater. Its probably true that Trump, given his pro-Russia line, would be somewhat less likely than Clinton to immediately stumble into confrontation with Vladimir Putin over Syria. But its silly to imagine Moscow slipping into a comfortable détente with a President Trump; Putin is more likely to pocket concessions and keep pushing, testing the orange-haired dealmaker at every opportunity and leaving Trump poised, very dangerously, between overreaction and his least-favorite position looking weak.
Thats just Russia: From the Pacific Rim to the Middle East, revisionist powers will set out to test Trumps capacity to handle surprise, hostile actors will seek to exploit the undoubted chaos of his White House, and our allies will build American fecklessness into their strategic plans. And again, all of this is likely to happen without Trump doing the wilder things hes kind-of sort-of pledged to do demanding tribute from allies, trying to take the oil, etc. He need only be himself in order to bring an extended period of risk upon the world.
The history of geopolitics prior to the Pax Americana is rife with examples of why this sort of testing should be feared. Overall, Trumps foreign policy hazing, his rough introduction to machtpolitik, promises more danger for global stability still a real and valuable thing, recent crises notwithstanding than the risks incurred by George W. Bushs interventionism, Barack Obamas attempt at offshore balancing, or (yes) Hillary Clintons possible exposure of classified material to the Chinese, the Russians and Anthony Weiners sexting partners.
There is no algorithm that can precisely calibrate how to weigh global instability against the reasons that remain for conservatives to vote for Trump. No mathematical proof can demonstrate that the chance of a solidly-conservative Supreme Court justice isnt worth a scaled-up risk of great power conflict.
.............SNIP"