Hillary still should get over 300 EV's, however, since I don't have a working crystal ball...

[Divine Discontent]

(So, avoid reading if you don't want to consider Hillary barely not getting to 270 as a what would happen situational question, because I'm asking about a topic that I find interesting about McMullin's surge in Utah, just because I've loved elections since I was very little and playing with magnets with the EVs for each state that I'd write on them!)


538's Silver says that there's only a couple paths to 270 for Donald (we'd prefer zero) which involve there being no early voting in PA, and it going narrowly to Donald along with narrow wins in AZ, OH, IA, which would put him just over the magic number by 2, why not consider if final polling shows a tossup election, Democrats voting for McMullin in Utah to take 6 EV's out of the Trump category and forcing the House voting 1 vote per state, who would be president?

McMullin would be awful, but not as awful as the Democracy busting Trump! I believe Trump will do things that will lead to the destruction of our country's standing worldwide, and be a grotesque monster with all that power. We've seen what he does with money, just imagine him with almost limitless short term power? I think if the worse situation came to worst and no one got 270, I'd prefer if the House have a big argument over who would be president, who knows, if neither got to 270 she might win a 3 way battle for that, with some states voting for Trump and some for McMullin, and 18-20 voting for Hillary.

[aidbo]

1. Can't have a president who's last name sounds like a breakfast sandwich. Sorry just not allowed.

[Divine Discontent]

3. LOL! now that's funny.

[Maeve]

21. I am SO stealing that line!!

Ok, I'll give you credit, but it's too good not to use!

[OnDoutside]

2. Ha! Good luck with this thread as I got absolutely hammered

For suggesting the same thing, by some here (with a few decent exceptions who got it).

It all depends where the poll numbers are though. If Hillary is right in there, then of course people should vote for her, but if she was trailing the other two by election day, then it's certainly something I would consider.

[Divine Discontent]

4. Oh, believe me, as a former mod on the old DU, I know how people can be sensitive to OP's asking

questions that some don't wish ever would even be discussed - like they can be prevented, or will never happen (like the Supreme Court deciding who won the Presidential election....).

But, I certainly get my red flag alert going when newbies post nothing but questioning OPs that are clearly slanted in a right wing manner. Fortunately, I've been around since 2004, and know how frustrating it is during election season, and making sure we tombstone shills for the GOP, or in this case, a sick fucking perv who wants to be... president! I just cannot even believe he's as close as he is. I see how Germans became duped!

[OnDoutside]

5. I get that, though as a relative newbie it's a little

Disconcerting to see some of the attacks on other newbies especially when I think they are making reasonable points. I am starting to see what some of the more seasoned members have to put up with, but some could do with a little rest after so long in the front line !!! 😊

[Divine Discontent]

6. Well...

I left for several years. What you bring up was a constant situation we dealt with in the mod lounge. The alerts were often for the things you mentioned about people being accused of being secretly non-liberal. I am proud of my time as a mod, and I was on the right side of the argument on hundreds of decisions, and the time that it was a tie, the guy in charge of the site would give his opinion, and I was on the ruling side of that as well. We "nuked" many a fake progressive, deservedly. But, as long as people are only sticking on an unwanted topic for a little bit, then there's nothing wrong with asking what would happen if such and such happened. I learn a lot from knowledgeable users on here by people asking questions! And surely, the Democratic Party is going through all the scenarios.

I think Hillary wins FL, and that assures she won't lose Colorado or Penn IMHO, but I find the McMullin situation an interesting upcoming situation if somehow the polls showed tightening from Comey's BS!

and welcome to DU, btw! Don't let negative posts ever really bug you. They used to bug me in 2004-2006 or so, and after that, I just blew off their hyperbolic qualities.

[OnDoutside]

9. Thanks for the welcome, I appreciate it ! Coming from

Ireland, I hope to offer a different perspective from time to time. Ireland is a very pro Democratic Party place, and many of us are still so grateful for the efforts the Clintons made to bring peace in the north of Ireland, and not just Bill. Hillary had a huge influence with the women on both sides of the divide, something she never gets recognition for, and indeed I've not heard it once during this campaign.

[lovemydog]

12. Great reminder.

Thank you. Hope you enjoy a good week.

[Divine Discontent]

13. Your viewpoint is great! I hear these stories from time to time about how wonderful she was in

helping with various issues. So, big shock (not) that the Democratic Party has leaders who actually try and solve problems around the world. Meanwhile, the GOP has a nominee that (insert one of any of the 20 or so awful things he's said or done!)

[TexasTowelie]

7. No,

having an ex-CIA operative as president is awful also.

[Divine Discontent]

8. "McMullin would be awful,"

yep, I agreed in my OP, before you posted. LOL.. but Trump would be even worse. I still think if that unlikely scenario came to pass, there's a good chance Hillary would win the plurality of states in the House Vote.

[Grey Lemercier]

10. right now, out of the 50 votes in the House (each

state delegation gets one vote, with 26 needed to elect a POTUS) the Rethugs control 33, the Dems 14, and 3 are a tie. Even when we pick up a few seats, there is no way the Dems will come anywhere near 26. To think any Rethug controlled state delegation will vote for Clinton (I am not saying you are suggesting that) is delusional.

[Divine Discontent]

11. TY for the great post. So, you answered a question I had, they keep voting til a majority is

achieved, huh? Not just a plurality? That sucks if so which is unfair to larger states like CA, if something like this happened, very unfair. It's an unlikely outcome that neither gets to 270, but... you know. Thanks for answering!

[Grey Lemercier]

14. oh, it can get far crazier

https://medium.com/@arisavitzky/this-election-cycle-could-end-with-president-paul-ryan-65f9db064039#.3aw13sqnw


House deadlocks so no POTUS

New Senate is 25 25 so dead split, they cannot elect a VP (the senate chosses among top TWO EV getters) so there is NO VP to become POTUS

Jan 20 2017 Speaker of House would become POTUS (Ryan) but

lets say he us NOT elected Speaker due to infighting from Election

so then Orrin Hatch (president pro tem of Senate would be

but, like the article says, in his last week as President of Senate, Biden nuclear options thru a new President pro tem, a Dem

so the Rethugs, out of revenge, cave in in the House and elect Trump

the sytem is broken

Electoral college needs to go

[Divine Discontent]

15. Yes, such a great ending to your post! EC needs to GO GO GO!!!

[Grey Lemercier]

16. I am 99% sure Sec Clinton will win the EV votes outright, but

so worried about the Senate.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512552418 See that for a detailed POTUS breakdown

We will not take back the House, so the Senate is absolutely key to getting SCOTUS choices through.

In 2018 we have a potential Senate nightmare on our hands.

We will have 10 or 11 hard races, all defending seats, many in red or pink states, all in an off year, all in a 3rd consecutive term of Dem POTUS's.


FL Bill Nelson
IN Joe Donnelly
MI Debbie Stabenow (safest of these 11)
MO Claire McCaskill
MT Jon Tester
ND Heidi Heitkamp
NJ Bob Menendez (mainly due to his criminal case, if it is not resolved and he runs still)
PA Bob Casey
VA Tim Kaine (will be another Dem, due to VP)
WI Tammy Baldwin
WV Joe Manchin

then these

NM Martin Heinrich (safe unless Susanna Martinez, who is termed out, runs)
OH Sherrod Brown (safe unless termed out Kasich runs for Senate)

The main Rethug seat we can realistically flip is

NV Dean Heller

Maybe Flake in AZ

The Rehugs in the House already are gaming out impeachement scenarios.

If we do not win the Senate back this election, the Rethugs will not only not approve any SCOTUS candidates Hillary puts up for Scalia's spot, but if Ruth Bader Ginsberg retires or dies they will say "Ok, the law doesn't specify 9 justices, and we have just lost 1 liberal, and one conservative, so is "fair" now.

Thats a disaster because with 7 judges, and the next to leave is a liberal , gives the conservatives a perm 4 to 3 advantage.

The soonest we can take back the House is 2022. AND that is ONLY IF we do well in the 2020 State legislature races because that is who will redistrict the House after the 2020 Census. The ReThugs KILLED us in 2010 elections, and thus gerrymandered a perm majority for the decade.

[Divine Discontent]

17. astute analysis, and I agree about the House situation. damn gerrymandering. A strong win by

Clinton that gets us the Senate by a seat plus Kaine's tie-breaking vote would be a great start to restoring our Congressional balance. Our changing demographics across the US are the key to getting the House back. But, that will take 4 years minimum, and that's with things going smoothly for Clinton if she gets in. Bush screwed this country big time and the ongoing problems are because of their poor leadership and GOP foot dragging...

[radius777]

18. the Repugs will approve Garland

in the lame duck session if Hillary wins. They will not leave that seat unfilled, as McConnell is on record that whomever wins the election should pick.

And if RBG retires, they will (with a long fight) approve a justice Hillary puts forward.

If they don't, they will pay a severe price amongst the general public, and will never win the presidency again.

As a party, they are already in meltdown over Trump, and will continue to do so.

[Grey Lemercier]

19. I wish I shared you optimism

Let us all hope you are right and I am wrong.

[democrattotheend]

20. But McMullin is not going to win

He's only on the ballot in a handful of states. Voting for him in Utah to help Hillary might make sense if the polls a week from now look like they do today.