Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

tgards79

(1,415 posts) Mon Oct 31, 2016, 12:47 PM Oct 2016

BTRTN: Why Hillary Will (Still) Win, Post-Comey

Comey-Gate is not a game changer -- an analytic and common-sense look:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/10/why-hillary-will-still-win-post-comey.html

3 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

BTRTN: Why Hillary Will (Still) Win, Post-Comey (Original Post) tgards79 Oct 2016 OP

New Rasmussen poll confirms.... tgards79 Oct 2016 #1

if Razz has her up 3, that's consistent with NBC's 6pt lead 0rganism Oct 2016 #2

Yes, I've noticed tgards79 Oct 2016 #3

tgards79

(1,415 posts)

1. New Rasmussen poll confirms....

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 05:35 PM

Oct 2016

I don't like Rasmussen polls because they badly skew right, but the trend of their daily tracking is instructive. As of last Friday, they had the race tied at 45-45. Today they have Clinton ahead by 3 points.

0rganism

(23,974 posts)

2. if Razz has her up 3, that's consistent with NBC's 6pt lead

Reply to tgards79 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 05:45 PM

Oct 2016

if it were earlier in the season, i'd swing the Razz result by 5, but they like to revise their models in the last couple weeks of the election so they don't look as stupid on election day

tgards79

(1,415 posts)

3. Yes, I've noticed

Reply to 0rganism (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 31, 2016, 06:51 PM

Oct 2016

Always made me wonder why, if avoiding stupidity was a motivator, why it does not guide their behavior throughout the election cycle!

Reply to this discussion