An "OMG this is great" analysis of Harris County (Houston), Texas to date:

[reasonabletexan]

This work is mine, but I have used some spreadsheets from Charles Kuffner (offthekuff.com) and harrisvotes.org.

We are 8 days into our 12 days of early voting here in Texas. Harris County is continuing to blow the doors off.

First, some figures:

Total registered voters:
2,216,000 (roughly) - 2016
1,942,000 (roughly) - 2012
1,892,000 (roughly) - 2008

To date 2016 (including absentee): 640,503 (555,383 EV and 85,120 absentee)
To date 2012 (including absentee): 506,217 (429,186 EV and 57,031 absentee)
To date 2008 (including absentee): 422,846 (376,761 EV and 46,085 absentee)


Harris County has voted 28.9% of all its entire registered voters so far in 2016.
Harris County had voted 26.1% of its (much smaller) entire registered voters so far in 2012.
Harris County had voted 22.3% of its ((smaller) entire registered voters so far in 2008.

At the close of EV/absentee voting in 2012, Harris County had voted 39.42% of its registered voters.
At the close of EV/absentee voting in 2008, Harris County had voted 38.61% of its registered voters.

The net net takeaway is this: As far as those who are doom-casting turnout in highly diverse Harris County, they are wrong. We are on a record pace, and a total voter turnout of 1,400,000 to 1,450,000 is not unreasonable to forecast.

[Farmgirl1961]

1. Awesome!!!

I'd like to hear more about other Texas counties and the Dem/Rethug split to see whether any of the predictions for Texas (leaning purple) are coming true.

[reasonabletexan]

2. Travis El Paso and Dallas Counties are smoking it too!

They are all reliably democratic.

[oasis]

3. Soon to be blue. 2020 for sure.

[reasonabletexan]

4. Harris County is light blue in presidential years

We just have to make it better in the off years

[oasis]

6. Keep up the good work, Texas Dems.

[Farmgirl1961]

5. FABULOUS!!!

I'm impatient and am hoping for the blue miracle of Texas for 2016.

[oasis]

7. Dreams of blue can come true.

[Farmgirl1961]

8. It has to start with a dream

Dreaming BLUE....Dreaming BLUE

Now -- stop with the dreaming and GOTV....GOTV...GOTV....GOTV....GOTV...GOTV!

[LanternWaste]

9. I'm reasonably confident the majority of the I-35 corridor will be blue.

I'm reasonably confident the majority of the I-35 corridor, including Harris co. will be blue. And, as Trump is no Cruz, TX GOP voters will be a bit more reticent to cast for him.

Oddly enough, Texas has never seen the investment by national Democrats nor a Prop 187-like event for Democrats to realize the potential of the underlying demographics of the state. The closeness of Texas this year suggests that the Trump candidacy may be acting as a Wilson-like catalyst, turning many Hispanics into active Democratic voters.

Remarkably, Texas has a higher percentage of both millennials and Hispanics today than California, suggesting that with a significant investment in the coming years Texas could indeed follow California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and now Arizona from red to blue.

[Rstrstx]

14. Agree with one asterisk

I-35 doesn't go anywhere near Harris County.

[Gothmog]

13. I am working with the Harris County Party on protecting the vote

[LisaL]

15. Well, they better vote now. Looks like they will have bad weather on election day.