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2016 Postmortem

sunweaver

(75 posts) Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:18 PM Nov 2016

Hillary Clinton has an 87% chance to win. UPSHOT Last updated Wednesday, November 2 at 7:06 PM ET

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

5 replies

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Hillary Clinton has an 87% chance to win. UPSHOT Last updated Wednesday, November 2 at 7:06 PM ET (Original Post) sunweaver Nov 2016 OP

SO WTF is Silver doing? He keeps adjusting her down? rumdude Nov 2016 #1

He has his secret sauce that the other poll aggregators don't use. We'll see how he does. n/t pnwmom Nov 2016 #2

Just a quick question… Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #4

Upshot's been stuck at 87% for the past day or so… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #5

rumdude

(448 posts)

1. SO WTF is Silver doing? He keeps adjusting her down?

Reply to sunweaver (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:20 PM

Nov 2016

She's had some decent polls lately. He's turned Florida pink again after the new Q poll? WTF?

pnwmom

(108,979 posts)

2. He has his secret sauce that the other poll aggregators don't use. We'll see how he does. n/t

Reply to rumdude (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:22 PM

Nov 2016

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)

4. Just a quick question…

Reply to sunweaver (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:22 PM

Nov 2016

Just a quick question…

Is this up, down, or about the same as the last upshot prediction?

I don't know what in the hell Nate is doing. Are used to think that 538 was a very reliable pull predictor. But they are so far out of whack, and every time I look at his poll numbers, I kind of want to vomit.

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

5. Upshot's been stuck at 87% for the past day or so…

Reply to Farmgirl1961 (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 08:27 PM

Nov 2016

They were at 89% before. Not a major drop.

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