Let's not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I'm hearing an incredible level of certainty that Clinton will win. It worries me.
We "all" know Trump breaks "every rule in the book" in pursuit of his own ends. He lies and distorts reality to rationalize and justify his wrongful conduct. To puff up his over-inflated ego he stereotypes and denigrates those he sees as "out-groups." His callous disregard for others and sense of entitlement appears to know no bounds. He weaves grandiose tales of his fearsome power, omnipotence, and unequaled brilliance. He is proudly abrasive and offensive. He clearly enjoys humiliating and embarrassing others, but reacts to any perceived slight to his own person, appearance, or accomplishments aggressively and vindictively.
In short, he is horrible.
Or to be more technical, he is a psychopathic narcissist.
It's blatant. It's obvious. It's undeniable.
And then we see the numbers. Since the conventions, regardless of what Trump does, support for him has remained incredibly steady at close to 40%. His level of support is just a few percentage points below Clinton's.
Most of us look at those polls and think "Unbelievable!"
That disbelief makes sense.
People need to construct a coherent "reality." The beliefs we internalize can be flat wrong, or inconsistent with each other, but i don't think we could function if we didn't have some sense that we know, or can figure out, "how things work." Necessarily, our reality is constructed based on our own experience.
Clearly, there are people who don't see what's obvious to us. And there are a LOT of them. Where we are repulsed, they are attracted. Behavior "we" see as undeniable evidence that Trump is a psychopath, "they" see as undeniable evidence that he's strong, genuine, has a "great sense of humor, and is a fantastic businessman. Statements "we" see as incredibly dangerous propositions, or blatantly racist and sexist, "they" see as willingness to "do what has to be done" and "telling it like it is."
Intellectually, we know "those people" exist. We see the numbers, but, we don't really "get it" because, whatever is going on for "those people" is utterly foreign to our experience. On some level, we hold firm to the notion that Trump is so obviously horrible "everyone" must see it. I think this phenomenon is related to the incredible level of confidence so many people seem to have.
It's true that when we look at the electoral map predictions, a Clinton win looks solid. But what I'm seeing goes beyond that. I'm seeing a widespread belief that a Trump win is completely outside the realm of possibility. I think that level of certainty is driven by two things. One factual, one counterfactual:
Factual:
"State polls make it highly probably that Clinton will get a majority of the electors."
Counterfactual:
An underlying belief that "Trump can't possibly win because he is too horrible."
When we take the second part out, we can "get real." The number of Trump supporters, and the number of Clinton supporters, are too close for comfort. State-level, poll-driven expectations have blown up before. A Trump victory is possible.
If we recognize the possibility of losing, we'll do a better job of making sure it doesn't happen.
When so many believe the outcome is so certain, some percentage of Hillary supporters won't bother to vote because they think "my one vote isn't going to make a difference. Hillary has it in the bag."
It seems to me that the Clinton campaign itself subscribes to the notion that victory is inevitable. I worry that overconfidence has made them complacent about getting out the vote. News from Florida about low African American turnout in early voting seems to confirm this. In an article in Politico, Alcee Hastings is quoted as saying "They’re not doing enough in the black community. I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening."
Even if the the notion that "victory is certain" only suppresses the vote for Hillary by a small percentage, when it's coupled with other forms of suppression we KNOW we will see (and are already seeing) -- insufficient election day resources (long lines); intimidation by Trump thugs; and the systematic forms of suppression already in place (voter ID) -- that "inevitable" Clinton victory could be derailed.
Unbelievable as it may be, there are whole lot of enthusiastic Trump supporters out there. Perhaps enough to propel him to victory. "President Trump' IS within the realm of possibility. It's a terrifying thought, but fear is a great motivator.
Let's not let overconfidence snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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