2016 Postmortem

triron

(22,003 posts) Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:30 PM Nov 2016

* Univ of Denver poll shows HRC and DT tied in 4 way*

HRC is up +7 in early vote. GJ is getting 15% wtf!

16 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

*** Univ of Denver poll shows HRC and DT tied in 4 way*** (Original Post) triron Nov 2016 OP

Sample is 550... not to say the poll is totally junk but we will get many outliers...she is not MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #1

Good to hear. triron Nov 2016 #2

One thing to remember is pollsters are confused to understand comeygate, some are MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #5

Comey has nothing to do with how the pollsters conduct their polls. Ace Rothstein Nov 2016 #8

There are many pollsters who manipulate numbers based on recent events... if they were all same MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #10

Can you provide a link to back that up? Ace Rothstein Nov 2016 #12

Rassmusen is very fair pollster, we should love in DU... from tomorrow please post Rassmusen poll regularly here MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #13

Now I have no clue what you are talking about. Ace Rothstein Nov 2016 #15

That is fine, we are all in DU community, so peace... Enjoy your night... MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #16

Just curious -- how do other, more reliable polls show the CO race? Farmgirl1961 Nov 2016 #3

See Last Sentence in Summary. DU Polled Less Latinos than Expected to Vote-So Probably Not a Tie Stallion Nov 2016 #4

if she's up in early vote qazplm Nov 2016 #6

Already well-covered here… regnaD kciN Nov 2016 #7

ROFL alcibiades_mystery Nov 2016 #9

Another bad poll posting by low post poster. Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #14

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

1. Sample is 550... not to say the poll is totally junk but we will get many outliers...she is not

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:32 PM

Nov 2016

behind...

triron

(22,003 posts)

2. Good to hear.

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:33 PM

Nov 2016

550 too damn small.

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

5. One thing to remember is pollsters are confused to understand comeygate, some are

Reply to triron (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:37 PM

Nov 2016

overestimating the effect... Really as days go by, the effect is lower... people out of DU are not following news this minutely...

Only wildcard is Comey comes out on Friday again and disrupts the race... In that case he rigged election for Trump...

Ace Rothstein

(3,163 posts)

8. Comey has nothing to do with how the pollsters conduct their polls.

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:57 PM

Nov 2016

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

10. There are many pollsters who manipulate numbers based on recent events... if they were all same

Reply to Ace Rothstein (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:03 AM

Nov 2016

there no reason to categorize them in A, B, C...

Ace Rothstein

(3,163 posts)

12. Can you provide a link to back that up?

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:12 AM

Nov 2016

I've been following polls for 15 years and have never heard that before.

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

13. Rassmusen is very fair pollster, we should love in DU... from tomorrow please post Rassmusen poll regularly here

Reply to Ace Rothstein (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:19 AM

Nov 2016

Every one will appreciate you posting fair pollster.

If you have utmost trust in all pollsters, no point arguing.

Ace Rothstein

(3,163 posts)

15. Now I have no clue what you are talking about.

Reply to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #13)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:46 AM

Nov 2016

You made a ridiculous claim that pollsters adjust their polls based on current events which I've never heard of before. You can't back that up.

MyNameIsKhan

(2,205 posts)

16. That is fine, we are all in DU community, so peace... Enjoy your night...

Reply to Ace Rothstein (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 3, 2016, 12:55 AM

Nov 2016

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)

3. Just curious -- how do other, more reliable polls show the CO race?

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:34 PM

Nov 2016

Stallion

(6,474 posts)

4. See Last Sentence in Summary. DU Polled Less Latinos than Expected to Vote-So Probably Not a Tie

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:36 PM

Nov 2016

qazplm

(3,626 posts)

6. if she's up in early vote

Reply to triron (Original post)

Wed Nov 2, 2016, 11:37 PM

Nov 2016

and tied in overall vote, then she wins yes?

I think the problem with this election and polling is figuring out who the LVs are...that is what is accounting for these swings.

I think we are seeing in several states that the EV is favoring Clinton by at least as much as 2012 in many places (albeit not necessarily all) that Obama won, and in a few cases, by more than Obama.

That would seem to suggest that the electorate is going to look more like 2012 than 2004.