2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum*** Don't forget that polls are a lagging indicator. Some polls were taken during Peak Comey***
I suspect Hill can outperform current polls by 1-2%
yardwork
(61,622 posts)No poll ever elected anybody. Get out the vote.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Cosmocat
(14,565 posts)that the Comey hit job actually had an effect.
I think it is good to admit and accept that.
You can still roll up your sleeves and fight to the finish while not sticking your head in the sand.
There probably was a natural tightening that was going to happen minus another Trump pouring gas on himself and lighting it regardless, and the Comey hit job was teed up fast ball down the middle of the plate to let team R max out their jackassery AND the media play its role as dutiful lapdog to the GOP - EVEN TODAY the overwhelming majority of the media simply refer to it as the Clinton e-mail scandal ...
While Ds should have put a LOT more time into calling Comey for the POS he was, Hillary and company have rightfully put the focus on their end on talking about the dolt. However, it is getting washed out by the media having completely given up on calling him for the massive disaster he is and simply doing the horse race narrative, with the obligatory bad news for dems/Rs are on the prowl narrative.
Rs and Trump are literally insane, so they have the inherent "motivation" of delusional rage. Hill and BHO have their normal calm, professional approach. They are running the numbers and making decisions based on them, and have a better ground game.
My sense, honestly, is that those two might end up being a wash.
There is a chance that you are correct, that the bias of the media is so great that there is a little more depth to Hill's votes than we can tell. Polls are so insanely all over the place it is hard to tell at this point.
She could scratch a really close win or maybe have a solid 60 or so EV win. That seems to be the window today.
And, GOD WILLING, the senate swings ...
Vinca
(50,276 posts)I just cannot believe people in this country would be so overwhelmingly stupid as to elect a totally unqualified person.