Survey Monkey PA, WI, FL, NH, VA, NC, CO, MI, NV

[vdogg]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

PA +5
VA +8
NH +10
FL +3
NC +8
CO +4
MI +3
NV-1
WI +2

Not sure wtf is going on in NV, but the rest of these numbers are good. Pollster is a low rank (C-) but this is good for trend. All post Comey. I've seen a couple of Nevada polls like this, but this runs contrary to the ACTUAL vote coming in so far. Right now, Clarke is 5000 away from it being mathematically impossible for Trump to win Nevada. I think they're having trouble polling hispanics.

[Coyotl]

1. dKos election forecast is 326-212:

Early voting exit polling looks very good in Nevada.

forecast Hillary Clinton 323 Trump 215 Electoral Votes

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/president



Hopefully, turnout will turn OH blue too. Latinos may make the difference in Texas. They are already turning Fl, AZ and NV blue.

[molova]

2. Very strange poll,l with WI +2 after Marquette found it at +6

But overall, I'd say these numbers are excellent due to NC being at +8 and FL at +3.

NV may mean everyone's missing Hispanics.

[ScienceIsGood]

3. Great info, thanks! n/t

[geo1]

4. Florida, Florida, Florida

... as Tim Russert said in 2000. Every talking head out there has said that Trump cannot win without Florida. Look at the set of polls with the most recent data, and keep in mind the results of the Target Smart poll that incorporated early vote data.

[anneboleyn]

5. Yep. It is OVER for Trump if he loses Florida.

[leftynyc]

8. I'm watching NC and PA

If Hillary takes those, it's over for cheetoh jesus.

[Cicada]

6. Nevada early vote: how will independents vote?

More dems are early voting than republicans. So how can polls show Trump doing well? Apparently polls think Trump is winning independents by 20% or more. Jon Ralston, the dean of Nevada political reporters, thinks Trump can't do that well with independents.

[Sancho]

7. Hillary and the team are really hitting the trail...

and the rape victim will hopefully put Trump back in the news soon.

By the end of the weekend, Hillary should be ahead in all the relevant polls. I suspect a lot of GOP women are voting for Hillary, but not answering polls.

Survey Monkey is probably understating her lead. Here in FL, we are focused on GOTV!

[aaaaaa5a]

9. Nevada polls are always off. Nobody knows

How to count hispanics there for some reason. The NH number is great. The only problem point is WI and MI. But she leads in both, and other polls have her ahead by more.

[Demsrule86]

10. The Nevada poll is flawed...it showed Clark Country as going for Trump

There are about 150,000 more Democrats in Clark County. John Ralston criticized it last night on one of the shows on MSNBC.

[bluestateguy]

11. I'd rather be Hillary with those numbers than Trump

The NC results are especially great news; the NH poll is a nice antidote to that other nervewracking poll that came out today. And a steady small lead in Florida.