***Suffolk U/Boston Globe poll of NH LV shows tie***

[triron]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[snooper2]

3. impossible there are an odd number of voters

[geek tragedy]

4. Crap. 3/3 polls from NH have been terrible. That was supposed to be part of the blue wall.

That's disquieting. One bad poll in a day is meh. Three in one day is ...

We could be looking at Nevada being the difference between victory and defeat. Which is good news since we're running very strong there.

[vdogg]

10. 3 bad polls from 1 state

We had several good polls from other states, including Florida, which is confirmed by early voting data. We could lose several New Hamphires and make it up with Florida.

[geek tragedy]

14. Florida is razor close, and the early vote there is hard to decipher.

Republicans are doing better in the early voting there than they did in 2012, but there are signs they're cannibalizing their election day vote instead of turning out unlikely voters, and there's signs the NPA vote might lean Democratic.

But it's goddamn close.

NH has traditionally been bluer than Florida.

[jcgoldie]

19. NH and FL are apples and oranges

NH may traditionally be bluer but its also a hell of a lot whiter.

[geek tragedy]

23. Florida is home of Florida Man, lots of Trumpers in that state.

yeah, it should go for Clinton based on diversity, but the numbers aren't giving a lot of insight right now.

All you can know about Florida is that it's going to be a margin of at most 3% either way, and we don't know how that's going to break down because it's all about who goes out to vote.

[MyNameIsKhan]

21. Very very unlikely NH will vote R, there are many liberal strongholds

Towards side of MA and they will pull HRC on top. The population is pretty much static with 700k likely voters and Dems have a leed of about 30k votes, I know three polls came with tied race but in this small population very difficult to get correct results with small sample.

[geek tragedy]

24. not saying it's cause for panic, but it is disquieting nt

[MyNameIsKhan]

27. Additional data says Comey actions really hurt HRC here

I am hopeful the Indies who became undecided are disgruntled Comeygate voters, they will come back, no way they will vote Trump

[DLCWIdem]

16. Yes but it was looking good for the Senate too

Better get Bernie ov e there.

[MyNameIsKhan]

17. President Obama is there on Monday

[moose65]

5. Does NH have early voting?

NH doesn't have much of a minority population, so there's not much vote to suppress! I can't believe it's tied there, though! They've been subjected to this campaign bullshit for 2 years now. I'm sure they just want it to go away!

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. NH is very difficult to poll correctly Obama won by 5 points

In 2012 and that was just 40k votes

[StevieM]

7. This is really bad. The fake "re-opening" of email investigation is taking its toll. (eom)

[molova]

8. Everyone there is white

Therefore I'm not freaking out. They are unlike other important states we need to win.

[geek tragedy]

12. NH was considered to be part of the Blue Wall.

If Trump wins there, he's likely only 1 state away from being president.

Starting to question Clinton doing appearances in AZ but ignoring NH.

[anneboleyn]

26. One state -- as in he needs to win everything else AND flip a major blue state like PA or MI.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. I'm more than questioning it

More emphasis on Arizona than New Hampshire is idiotic. We are not going to carry Arizona in 2016 unless we win nationwide by 8 points or more.

New Hampshire voters often follow their own path. I'm never fully confident there.

[Cosmocat]

32. Its 4 EVs ...

Not awesome if they lose the handle on a state that ideally should be in the fold, but if there is one, this is it.

[geek tragedy]

46. 4 EVs is the difference between 268 and 272 EVs, in other words possibly the future of the Republic.

Fortunately, NV looks to be much better for Clinton than NH does.

[Cosmocat]

56. Yeah, no ...

Sorry, if Hill can't take any other state, literally because ANY other state would make up for NH, then she is losing the election anyways.

[piechartking]

34. Relax. NH is only relevant if Trump can

pick off NV, and then win OH, FL, NC, IA and ME-02.

If she wins ANY of those six places I just mentioned above, and holds the line on MI, WI, PA and CO, we're golden.

go to 270towin.com and see for yourself.

[geek tragedy]

47. Trump literally being one state away from having a clear path to the presidency is scary as shit.

And right now, bricks are falling out of the blue wall rather than being added.

That should make people nervous that there could be late movement towards Trump in other states.

[piechartking]

49. Yeah I'm nervous too but

Would you rather be facing what Trump's facing?

[geek tragedy]

50. Obviously no, but ugh this is appallingly close and it really

speaks of how f@cked up this country is.

[Demsrule86]

51. That is not true.

[geek tragedy]

54. what part?

NH went from solid blue to toss up.

I can see disregarding one poll, but when you get three on the same day all showing bad results, there's something going on.

[Demsrule86]

55. I don't buy it...heard the same stuff in 12

It was untrue...polls are swinging wildly...think it is mostly bullshit. I find the closer to election, the less trustworthy polls are.

[Dawson Leery]

11. 42% each.

That is low.

[ram2008]

13. NH seems to be very elastic

Usually swings wildly depending on where the trend is going. Florida, NC have been the opposite, relatively stable.

To me this means Hillary is bleeding white support but motivating minority turnout. It's possible she loses NH, Ohio while winning NC, Fla and even AZ.

[anneboleyn]

22. "Bleeding white support?" Really? Let's not get too crazy. Hillary can lose NH and still

win comfortably. And they have been talking about the *possibility* that NH goes for Trump since NH has some weird Trumpers there.

[vdogg]

15. All the good polls today and people are ready to jump off a bridge over one state

This place is ridiculous sometimes.

[Dawson Leery]

18. Dems are ahead across the board in NC.

[geek tragedy]

52. here's the deal: NH is supposed to be part of the wall.

NC, AZ, FL, IA, OH are all padding the final score states.

NH is supposed to be part of the core group of states to get us to 270.

Once blue wall states start slipping, that opens up a path to 270 for Trump.

Right now, he doesn't have a path because NV is getting close to locked down.

But, that means she can't afford to lose any other blue wall state.

[triron]

20. I looked at internals some.

500 sample size from 2010 voter files I think. 151 D 160 R 188 Ind/Unaf
260 female 240 male

Comments?

[piechartking]

36. What jumped out at me was

voter registration was like 32 R, 30 D, 35 indy.

I've never looked at internals for an NH poll before, so unsure if that's just normal, though. Just seemed kind of low for D to me.

[Dawson Leery]

39. 2010 was an off year election.

Presidential elections have much higher turnout.

There is clearly a movement to support Donnie Himmler.

[DeminPennswoods]

25. NH Dem chairman tweeted yesterday about 2 polls

Yesterday a DU'er linked to a tweet from, iirc, the NH state Dem chairman that said 2 polls were coming out tomorrow (now today) and only 1 was reality-based. Presumably this Suffolk poll is the one not based in reality.

[piechartking]

37. I think he meant the WMUR (WBUR?) one n/t

[SaschaHM]

28. Eh, Don't panic or bed wet, GOTV.

I have a feeling that this may be more exaggerated that's to Trump's FBI lapdog, James Comey. In the WI poll that caused a bit of shock for that day and then things stabilized the next day or so.

Take this poll as a reminder that it is time to clean house at the FBI after this election if/when we win.

[Iliyah]

30. HRC campaign has Pres O's pollsters.

NH is still in HRC's court and she's doing quite well in NV, FL and OH is in play.

Guess what, I'll trust them first.

[triron]

33. Please more details

on what campaign internals show.

[Joe941]

40. Outlier poll - no worries.

[vdogg]

43. Here's the poll

R sample is high. Is that normal for NH? What did it look like in '8 and '12?
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/11_3_2016_marginals.pdf

[MyNameIsKhan]

45. Very interesting data HRC has 209 votes further

38 are undecided, 245 voted for Obama in 2012, now add 209 and 38 = 247... Bingo

After comey shit, 38 people got undecided, they will be back home if not all, all HRC needs is half ...

[triron]

48. Here are the actual voter registration

numbers: http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

[MyNameIsKhan]

53. Sample size for D, R, I are just fine in poll

This poll is probably showing temp Comey effect, President will be there on Monday.