Nevada: Jon Ralston plays 3 election scenarios -- WINNER: Clinton, Clinton, Clinton.

[ffr]

But it's going to be close AND depends on democrats who have yet not voted, to cast their ballots in ratios as those who've EV'ed thus far & historically cast ballots.

UPDATED, 11/3/16, 10:00 AM
<snip>

On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes

----Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes

Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it's almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.

If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don't dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can't lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now. - Jon Ralston / KTNV 13 Las Vegas

Bottom line, take no democratic voter for granted. Get them counted. Do whatever it takes.

[Adrahil]

2. On MTP Daily....

Ralston said he thinks he'll be able to call NV by tomorrow night.

Of course, he said he's kidding a little, but followed up and said he thinks this is rapidly getting out of Trump's reach.

[bluestateguy]

5. Although a 3000 vote margin is within the recount zone

and with a Republican Secretary of State, and Trump's usual working of the refs, I would not want to be in that situation.

[Demsrule86]

6. Ralston was on Chuck Todd today.

He said if the vote holds in Clark county and one other place can't remember where...2/3 of the vote will be in by Friday...and he might be able to call it for Hillary...even before Tuesday.