2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIpsos State polls are out NH +6, NV +12, WI +9, CO +8, FL Tie, PA +3, VA +6, OH Tie,
NC -2, MI +2
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/
As expected, these polls looking good to us laymen, Nate lowered her odds by 0.5%. Lol. I take that back, increased by 0.5% - there was an error on his site?
Zynx
(21,328 posts)forest444
(5,902 posts)Divine Discontent
(21,056 posts)triron
(22,006 posts)RandySF
(58,884 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Believe me.
I think he may be factoring that POS Mitchell/FOX2 that failed so spectacularly during the primaries.
warpigs72
(31 posts)That's because the trend lines are still +1.5% for Trump. So for NC, Hillary is +1.6% on average, which includes the bogus 7% Survey USA poll. This gets net down to even after the trend line adjustment. So that one bogus poll plays a large roll in this. Once the polls from the phony email scandal gets pushed back the trend lines will normalize and the results will be more in line with other poll aggregators.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)This could start bending that tangent/trendline thing and let us breath a tiny bit.
renate
(13,776 posts)I'd sure rather be us than them, but I want to see him at about 25%, not anywhere near close. I just don't get it... how can someone like him be within shouting distance of the Oval Office? I'm so sad and upset that so damn many people in this country are proud to be voting for him. And I'm worried about the Russians being able to hack the vote. The vote-switching that's been reported doesn't worry me quite so much--it's what goes on in the depths of those voting machines that scares me, and in a close election they could possibly get away with it.
I know I'm being silly, but oh my gosh I can't wait for this to be over and done with.