Hillary v. Trump by party identification and other factors.

[pat_k]

Bloomberg has aggregated national polling results and broken down by party identification and other factors. There is also a link on the page to 2012 exit polls for comparison.

Link: Bloomberg Poll Decoder

These are national numbers, so I don't know how useful they are to an analysis of a given state. Summary of what they found by party ID below.

Caution: People who said they'd be voting for someone other than Trump or Clinton aren't accounted for. Without a complete breakdown of Clinton/Trump/Other for each group, you can't determine the actual percentage of self-identified Dems who say they're voting Clinton. Same goes for other groups. It's an important factor.

Party Identification: Democratic
-----------------------------------
90.45% Clinton
9.55% Trump
(Clinton +80.9)


Party Identification: Republican
----------------------------------
89.25% Trump
10.75% Clinton
(Trump +78.5)


Party Identification: Independent/Other
-------------------------------------------
46.75% Clinton
53.25% Trump
(Trump +6.5)

==========================

All Males
---------------
47.8% Clinton
52.2% Trump
(Trump +4.4)

All Females
---------------
56% Clinton
44% Trump
(Clinton +12)

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. Independents my ass. What the fuck is wrong with these people?!! nt

[pat_k]

4. Actually, s/b "Independent/Other" (fixed)

The "Other" portion is a wildcard. If right-wing "other" parties are over-represented, that could account for the skew to Trump.

More here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2581505

[vadermike]

2. So

What does that mean about the indies ? Is that not a good sign ? Altho Romney won indies in 12 but I don't know these people are sick fucks

[pat_k]

3. Correction. "Independent" changed to "Independent/Other"

I just realized the label should be "Independent/Other" (as in Bloomberg chart), not just "Independent." Corrected in the OP

Perhaps the 6.5 point skew to Trump is not an accurate representation of "true independents" (that is, No Party Preference, or NPP).

Perhaps there aren't enough "others" (registered as something other than Dem, Repub, or NPP) mixed in with NPP's to make a difference, but it's an unknown. They could be registered in a left-wing "other" party or right-wing "other" party. If the right is over-represented, that could account for skew to Trump.