Nate Silver is getting hammered on twitter right now

[budkin]

This was sparked by a snide comment he made to Matthew Dowd who questioned why shitty polls were affecting his model so much. Check out the thread for good times.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794659577115635716

[geek tragedy]

1. Dowd just destroyed him by noting that Silver blew the Trump win in the primary precisely

because he made shit up and ignored the data.

Silver's model doesn't account for early voting. It's a huge weakness.

Nate Cohn's work at the NY Times is light years more interesting and sophisticated.

[Thrill]

3. Hate to see Nate go down this road

He was one of the good ones.

[budkin]

6. I really think the fact that he was SO WRONG about Trump forced him to change his model

He's like shell-shocked over it. SO AFRAID he'll get it wrong, so he builds in a hedge.

[Silent3]

14. That doesn't mean, however, that Nate Cohn is painting an all-rosy picture for Clinton.

11/4: "Polling Still Shows Hillary Clinton With a Lead, but Not a Safe One"

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/upshot/polling-still-shows-hillary-clinton-with-a-lead-but-not-a-safe-one.html

I guess it comes down to how safe you consider "safe". Cohn's last odds are certainly much higher than Silver's at 84%, but not as optimistic as Sam Wang's 98%.

84% isn't bad, but that's also roughly the odds of surviving one round of Russian Roulette. Both make me more than a bit anxious.

[geek tragedy]

15. No, and no one should be complacent. But Cohn is doing things Silver isn't doing

1) doing his own damn research instead of piggybacking off the work of other people;

2) actually tying polling data to voter rolls and early vote turnout.

Silver's model is pretty much garbage in, garbage out.

[gto]

2. Am I the only one who pays no attention to Nate?

There are quite a few other models, particularly ones that have a more accurate track record than Nate *cough*Wang*cough* , and they're all very good news.

[kevin881]

29. what is Wang's record?

[regnaD kciN]

4. Based on his calls this cycle…

…I would guess he's been getting hammered on a regular basis for some time now.

[shenmue]

12. I see what you did there

[Doodley]

5. This election is a lot closer than many are saying.

If Trump wins New Hampshire (and four of the last eight polls show him ahead),

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

and Trump wins Nevada, which is about as 50/50 as you can get,

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-hampshire/

and he wins all the other states that are leaning his way, he wins the presidency.

Nate Silver is being very realistic. A dangerous fascist could win this and we need to be scared.

[budkin]

7. But that's the thing, neither NV or NH are 50/50. NV is not even close

when you factor in the early voting. That's another point he's getting destroyed for, his model doesn't factor early voting in at all.

[Demsrule86]

10. PPP a very reliable poll shows her up by 5 in New Hampshire.

Nate Silver is not being realistic...Trump has to run the board and he wont' ...he won't get every toss-up state ...won't happen Silver is interjecting his personal opinion.

[TrekLuver]

16. Judging by some of his tweets it sure looks that way.

[geek tragedy]

13. Nevada is not a 50/50 proposition. 90% chance Democrats win it, and that's being conservative.

He's also not favored to win North Carolina, or Florida (check out the Hispanic NPA early vote down there if you want some real data, not extrapolations from partisan junk polls).

[duffyduff]

17. He isn't winning either one. n/t

[Demsrule86]

8. Nate has it coming...if he wasn't going to put the time in and do it right

he should have shut his polling down...right now it is nothing but bullshit.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

9. Boom!

@NateSilver538 and by the way you made stuff up in GOP primary which is why your call was so off. Some of us called it by data.

In Nate's defense, though, I think he was generally correct shortly before the primaries/caucuses took place.

He just should have stuck to polls and not discounted Trump early on.

[helpisontheway]

11. Good..I can't stand him. Keeps propping Trump up with crappy polls

Then talking about how Hillary's lead is not stable. Today he is saying that this is a 3 point race.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. Emotions

Nate is making the mistake of getting emotional about his model. He should not be engaging in this back and forth, he's embarrassing himself. Really losing credibility because he is emotionally involved.

[molova]

22. Nate put his money on Rubio

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/663838731787464705

[April Lee]

23. Silver is the gold standard on election projections

Until Silver gets one really wrong, they can say all they like, but it doesn't mean squat.

[budkin]

24. That's why I can't write him off

But something doesn't seem right.

[uponit7771]

26. +1

[uponit7771]

25. We'll see

[Foggyhill]

27. Others were just as good in previous elections and they're all saying different

He was also off in the primaries

[msanthrope]

28. I'm watching Modo take down Silver and tasting vomit.

November 9th can't come quick enough.

[wisteria]

30. I lost some respect when MJ mentioned him on the show today during a rant.

Joe Scarborough never, ever mentions 538. I think he was trying to surpress the Democrat vote.

[musicblind]

32. I still trust Nate.

His model has some flaws and it has some upsides. I like that he has three different versions of his model and I like that he is honest when explaining the flaws in his model.

If he gets it wrong, I don't think it will be because he is biased. I think is truly trying his best