Comment by Sam Wang today: Confidence is associated with increased turnout

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

I’m getting mail claiming that when voters are sure their candidate will win, they are less likely to vote. Therefore (these are Democrats writing) I should pipe down. However, this speculation contradicts both human nature and empirical evidence.

First, think about why we vote. Since a single vote basically never swings a race, the rational argument for voting is not strong. Instead, we vote because it is our duty, because we build the habit over time, and because voting makes us feel good. In light of that, the obvious consequence of supporting a winner is increased likelihood of voting – there’s more emotional reward.
...

If you live in a state where you are certain that your candidate will win, you are more likely to vote than predicted by likely-voter screens. In the same state, if you support the losing candidate, you are less likely to vote than predicted by likely-voter screens. Now, I should say that it’s not clear that this idea applies to a national race. But my point is that we don’t have evidence that confidence is a turnout-killer.

Finally, consider the converse. When Donald Trump claims that the election is “rigged,” that tells his supporters that he is doomed. Based on the state-level data above, this might depress turnout.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/05/confidence-is-associated-with-increased-turnout/#more-18547

[mucifer]

1. I'm hoping the Latino vote will become contagious.

[Coyotl]

4. It already is. And it can have huge impact in places like Texas. Beware who you piss off!

Trump messed his own nest by insulting such a powerful demographic that was voting in really low numbers.

A very large portion of the Texas population has been sitting out voting until now, rendering the political majority the minority party.

Turnout can transform Texas overnight.

[Coyotl]

5. EARLY VOTING BLOG: Early voting kills Trump in NV

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

.... Let’s be conservative and say two-thirds of the vote is in – it was 70 percent in 2012 and turnout is down this year. That means there are roughly about 385,000 votes left. Let’s say Trump did the impossible and won Election Day by 10 points – 50-40. That would be 192,000 to 154,000, or 38,000 votes. He would probably still lose.

And the chances of Trump winning election day by 10 points are about the same as Billy Bush anchoring the CBS Evening News. .........

[JI7]

2. he is right . there is a difference between making sure people get out and vote and doom and gloom

[spooky3]

3. Don't confuse us with empirical evidence!!11!!!

[betsuni]

6. Thank you, Sam Wang. You are my new BFF.

I don't understand all the hubbub about people suddenly deciding to not vote because their party is ahead, makes no sense to me. If someone convinces you that the system is rigged and corrupt, that would more likely depress voting, it seems to me. Every time I see the word "complacency" my nostrils flare with irritation. And after Clinton wins, all the posts reminding us to "keep her feet to the fire" will cause more nostril-flaring.

[Cicada]

7. Karl Rove always overstate Repub poll margin

Karl agrees with Wang, always lies about the expected margin to boost confidence and turnout