Polling Spanish Speakers is Hard. Obama Outperformed Polls In Latino Heavy States in '12

[Fahrenthold451]

It's well established that pollsters are struggling with Spanish Language polling. Most polls are random dial and the preamble is in English. Non-participation by Spanish speakers is a real issue.

It should be noted here that polling the Hispanic population is still a work in progress — in large part because of language and other barriers that often exist.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/29/hillary-clinton-dominates-among-hispanics-unless-theyre-english-speaking-or-american-born/?client=safari

Also---

Higher-quality polls make efforts to reach cell-phone respondents, but many of the state polls this year have been mostly or entirely conducted via landline phone.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804#ixzz4PF0KTiaI
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And Nate Silver Admitted this this on 538 while doing the 2012 post mortem.

Third, there was some tendency for Mr. Obama to beat his forecasts in states where a large percentage of the population are racial minorities, but to match or underperform them in whiter states.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/where-obama-and-romney-beat-their-polls/

You could argue BS, because Arizona didn't do so well. Remember, however, that AZ has a super energized Mormon population. Romney was exactly their cup of tea. Romney also outperformed his polls in Utah.

Latino voters will be the story of this election. When the pollsters are calling they are hanging up. But when it's time to vote, they are voting.

[Wounded Bear]

1. Early returns in FL, AZ, TX and NV seem to bear this out...

3 of those 4 look like they are going blue this cycle. Texas will hopefully be at least purple, though it would really make a statement if we flipped it.

[Foggyhill]

2. My guess is outside Florida, she's got Latinos 85% to 15%, in Florida, maybe 77% to 23%.

My totally non scientific assessment is that
Latinos will add 2% in AZ, NV, FL and at least 5% in Texas.