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"Lies, Damn Lies, and Exit Polls" - did Trump really win 29% of the Latino vote?
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/11/10/lies-damn-lies-and-exit-polls/In the 36 hours since the results of the Presidential election became clear, a number of “analyses” have emerged suggesting that a surprisingly large share of the Latino vote went to Donald Trump, despite his demonization of Latinos, his attacks on Judge Curiel and Alicia Machado, his blanket hostility to immigrants, and more. The basis of these claims are the National Exit Poll, a survey commissioned by a consortium of media outlets who wish to understand the electorate’s behavior. The exit poll numbers for Latinos are wildly inconsistent with dozens of pre-election polls demonstrating a larger than 3-1 advantage for Secretary Clinton. What happened?
The exit poll reports of Latino vote are profoundly and demonstrably incorrect. The methodology used for this poll systematically misrepresents all voters of color and this can be demonstrated with actual precinct-level results and with their practices in the last decade. We note, at the start, that unlike the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll, the precise details of this year’s exit polls are not available to the public or press, which should at least give you pause when considering their accuracy. Moreover, since many high profile media outlets actually pay for the poll (ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and the Associated Press), reporters and editors are instructed to use that data, not to critique it, and to disregard other data sources.
The Latino Decisions poll of 5600 extremely high propensity Latino voters in the nights immediately prior to the election reported 79% of Latino voters supporting Secretary Clinton, 18% supporting Donald Trump, and 3% other. We have provided an extensive and detailed description of our methodology online here. Our findings demonstrate, among other things, that 55% of Latinos see Trump as hostile, compared with just 30% viewing the GOP as hostile and only 5% thinking that about Democrats, that there was a substantial 12-point shift to the left among Cuban voters in Florida, and that Latinas (86%) were more likely to support Secretary Clinton than Latino men (71%) who, nevertheless, were strongly Democratic. Here are 10 things to consider when evaluating the Exit Poll findings against ours:
The exit poll reports of Latino vote are profoundly and demonstrably incorrect. The methodology used for this poll systematically misrepresents all voters of color and this can be demonstrated with actual precinct-level results and with their practices in the last decade. We note, at the start, that unlike the Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll, the precise details of this year’s exit polls are not available to the public or press, which should at least give you pause when considering their accuracy. Moreover, since many high profile media outlets actually pay for the poll (ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC and the Associated Press), reporters and editors are instructed to use that data, not to critique it, and to disregard other data sources.
The Latino Decisions poll of 5600 extremely high propensity Latino voters in the nights immediately prior to the election reported 79% of Latino voters supporting Secretary Clinton, 18% supporting Donald Trump, and 3% other. We have provided an extensive and detailed description of our methodology online here. Our findings demonstrate, among other things, that 55% of Latinos see Trump as hostile, compared with just 30% viewing the GOP as hostile and only 5% thinking that about Democrats, that there was a substantial 12-point shift to the left among Cuban voters in Florida, and that Latinas (86%) were more likely to support Secretary Clinton than Latino men (71%) who, nevertheless, were strongly Democratic. Here are 10 things to consider when evaluating the Exit Poll findings against ours:
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The Cuban Americans in Florida are skewed to the right of Latinos generally, but they are also a very small group relative to Latinos.
