Why are people so terrified of losing Kerry's Senate seat?

[ButterflyBlood]

In 2010, Scott Brown won by about 4 points against one of the most disasterous candidates in recent memory. Honestly probably even worse than people like Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell. Also at the height of Tea Party craziness where the Democrats were down in then dumps everywhere as proven by that November.

Now you have a time when the Republicans are as unpopular as the swine flu, and the Democrats obviously not going to make the same mistake in nominating a disaster again. Flukes aren't likely to repeat themselves.

[maxsolomon]

1. Obama himself needs to campaign for the replacement

Have I mentioned that McCain is a douche lately?

[plethoro]

4. If Obama cuts Social Security, I strongly

suggest he not campaign for anything.

[Little Star]

9. nor anywhere, not just MA.

[plethoro]

13. Correct. See ya. I think he's going to

try for means testing SS next year. See ya, little star; I'm off to the gun store to look at some kind of simple guns for my wife and myself. I don't know much about guns, but if we're going to have our Social Security cut there's going to be a riot. I want to be prepared. I mean it seems natural: One kills himself working for fifty years and now one retires and he gets his Social Security cut. I want to be a part of that riot, little star. I'm sorry if that makes me look bad to you.

[Little Star]

15. lol

[KeepItReal]

2. Because people remember 2010.

Obama's not on the ballot = lower turnout.

That favors the GOP.

Hopefully Mass. Democrats step up with a top-tier candidate

[AndyTiedye]

3. So Many Democratic Senators up for Reelection Next Year

and here we are giving up the safest seat we have.

[dmosh42]

5. I can only think of a handful of senators who really represent their constituents....

so it usually comes down to the "lesser of two evils" vote.

[Scubamatt]

6. Why Choose Kerry?

Can someone please explain to me WHY, of all the qualified potential candidates, Obama chooses a Senator at the same time we are fighting to get a filibuster proof majority there, and/or Reid doesn't appear willing to change the rules on the filibuster after all. We seem to have a penchant for fighting with one arm tied behind our back. No matter how good Kerry is, i just can't believe there is NOONE else who could do this job. So regardless how the MA candidate stacks up against Walker, it will require our side to divert money, attention and clout to a race which simply is not a sure thing and would not - I repeat - would not -have to occur if Obama chose anyone other than Kerry. And you can bet how the right will trumpet a loss as sign that Obama has lost his mandate and the lame street media will pick that up and run with it. Ultimately, HIGH RISK, LOW REWARD on an UNNECESSARY maneuver. Only we Dems do that.

[MBS]

7. Exactly right.

Coakley (and her smugness) was a disaster. She didn't even campaign! A friend of mine described her "campaign" (and I use the word loosely) as "political malpractice."
But, luckily, MA Dems have now learned their lesson, and they will never let a "Coakley" happen again. Everyone has relearned the lesson that Democratic voters have to WORK to pick good nominees and to win elections, and that Dem candidates have to ask for voters' vote, and earn their vote.

[Little Star]

8. You'll have to explain that to my neighbors, friends & acquaintances...

because many people (in my neck of the woods at least) think he's a nice guy and the Boston media reassures them of it. Many people don't see him as the republican he is. They think he's not so bad. I hear (again, in my neck of the woods) and feel he has a good shot.

[politicasista]

10. Lo siento

Don't be mad at Senator Kerry.

[Little Star]

12. I'm not. I'm just concerned for my state and on a lesser scale the senate.

[politicasista]

16. You are fine

Agree with the concern too. There has to be some good Dems who will take nothing or no one for granted out there.

(Lo siento means "I'm sorry" in Spanish)

[Little Star]

21. I know it sounds a little crazy but....

I think Ben Affleck is our safest bet at this point. Mass residents, especially Dems and Independents, are very proud of him and Matt Damon both.

It will take some one with his gravitas to win this, imho. I 4 1 hope he runs.




ps: Thanks for telling what Lo siento means. I really didn't know.

[politicasista]

23. No problem

Ben is interesting. Matt is too.

They would be considered too green, but would love to see Boston Concilwoman Ayanna Pressley or Newton Mayor Setti Warren as dark horses. They both worked for big Joe Kennedy, B. Clinton and Kerry respectively.

[Little Star]

25. There are plenty of Dems who qualify and would be great including...

Ted Kennedy Jr.

I, personally have never heard of Pressley or Setti. I wonder if they are well known enough throughout the state? I'm sure they would be fine if elected though.

I'm just worried that they, any of them, are well known enough. That's why I think that whom ever we put up needs big name recognition, gravitas.

[politicasista]

27. They both hold local offices

so they may not be well know as TKJr, or any Kennedy, but they have political talents suited for future high offices.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. Did they vote for him in November?

That certainly didn't pull him over the line then.

[Little Star]

17. November was a Pres election year, high turnout. But no, those people didn't vote for him EVER....

not even the election he won. The people I'm speaking of are Democrats and are very concerned, in part, because of the high number of Independents in this state.

[Ned_Devine]

11. As a MA democrat, I'd like to see...

...Mike Capuano or Setti Warren. I'll come right out and say I'm not for Ed Markey despite the fact that he's been a reliable progressive congressman for a long time. I'd like to see someone a little less polished. Call me crazy

[Sunlei]

18. Because the republican groups will pour multi-millions to fill the seat. America has a history now

of nutcase republicans infesting our Gov. leadership positions.

[phleshdef]

19. Because people need to grow a spine.

Theres no excuse not to hold a seat down in a deep blue state like Mass. If we can't hold it, we don't deserve it. Period.

[MBS]

22. " " " " n/t

[NPolitics1979]

20. Scott Brown-R 2013 Special Election victory will be temporary like his 2010 Victory.

Scott Brown-R suprisingly won the January 2010 Special Election against Martha Coakley-D by a 4 point margin due to Coakley's inept campaigning. In 2012- Brown-R had to face his first re-election campaign in a Presidential Election Year-where Obama-D is strongly favored to carry the state of MA and the Democratic challenger-assuming it is a Top Tier or a Generic challenger would benifit from Obama-D coattails. Warren-D was the Generic Democratic challenger Brown-R faced and was defeated by in 2012.
Assuming Brown-R repeats his January 2010 Special Election victory in November 2013 against Capuano-D or Markey-D.
In November 2014, Scott Brown-R (incumbent) would lose re-election badly to Deval Patrick-D but would narrowly lose to Setti Warren-D.

[Blaukraut]

24. It's mostly non MA people who are terrified

And you might actually be onto something here. It's possible that President Obama has been advised that, with the popularity of Republicans being so low, Scott Brown will have an uphill battle in a special election.

Of course Scott is still somewhat popular in our state, at least with the independents, but his popularity took a huge hit with his nasty campaign style. He had to shed the nice guy image in order to smear EW, and that left a lasting impression. Besides, the MA Dem machine is not going to be caught with its pants down like it did with Coakley.

[karynnj]

30. Not to mention, Brown may face a dilemma in this race on whether to attack the nominee

in the same way. Assuming the Democrats have a credible candidate, it is likely that at that point, the race will be seen as close.

The Democrat will be able to attack Brown's record - just as Warren did. Brown ran away from his record, running on personality issues about himself and attacks on Warren. As you said, the attacks hurt his likability. Many who voted for Brown may have thought that they were true. Now, if he starts personal attacks on another Democrat, this will be seen as what his pattern really is. Where this may seem normal elsewhere, MA had the good fortune of having Kennedy and Kerry as their Senators for so long, that standards are higher. Brown does not reach that standard on gravitas or politeness. It might seem unseemly for a US Senator to stoop as low as he does.

From out of state - connected by a Boston area daughter, it seemed that the Warren line that she would be voting with MA all the time - not just part of the time - was a perfect counter to Brown's constant claim of bipartisanship. The good thing is that works just as well this time as then. While it is a variation of asking who you want to control the Senate, it is not based on the numbers in the Senate.

[robinlynne]

26. because we just got a real dem senate for the first time. (lieberman voted GOP.)

They have congress. the Pres doesn't really stand up. Losing a seat in the senate is unthinkable. It is time to get MORE seats in the house, not to risk a senate seat.

[Exultant Democracy]

28. They lost Ted's seat to a playgirl model. It's called earned skepticism.

Last edited Sat Dec 22, 2012, 01:07 PM - Edit history (1)

We also know that democrats and their core constituencies are terrible at getting out for special elections and that every conservative in the US will be cracking his piggy bank.

This is also the state that put mittens on the national stage.

[Little Star]

29. Yep, and I live here. I'll add (again) that the Boston media fawns over Brown too...

They seldom take him to task on anything. This I feel, is because his wife Gayle Huff is part of the media and has been for many years. They are a click.