2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCould you imagine what election night (11/6) would have been like if that EV split was in effect?
It would have gone something like:
"NBC News now projects President Obama will win PA over Mitt Romney, yet Mr Romney will receive 12 of the states 20 electoral votes even though Obama has won the state overall"..
"NBC News now projects President Obama will win MI over Mitt Romney, yet Mr Romney will receive 8 of the states 16 electoral votes even though Obama has won the state overall"..
"NBC News now projects President Obama will win WI. over Mitt Romney, yet Mr Romney will receive 4 of the states 10 electoral votes even though Obama has won the state overall"..
Something really f-ing wrong with this, but this COULD actually happen in 2016 if only blue states split their electoral votes and no red ones do....
Pab Sungenis
(9,612 posts)The way the House is gerrymandered, Romney would have won even if every state was split.
earthside
(6,960 posts)According to Jon Nichols:
Under the most commonly proposed district plan (the statewide winner gets two votes with the rest divided by congressional district), Obama would have secured the narrowest possible win: 270-268. Under more aggressive plans (including one that awards electoral votes by district and then gives the two statewide votes to the candidate who won the most districts), Romney would have won 280-258.
Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/opinion/column/john_nichols/john-nichols-republicans-scheming-to-win-even-if-they-lose/article_a561f07c-64c0-11e2-8cf5-001a4bcf887a.html#ixzz2IoTusedp
Imagine ... Obama/Biden winning the popular vote by 5 million ballots and losing the electoral college under a clearly rigged system.
This scheme by the Repuglicans needs to be batted down severely!
If this was adopted we would have presidential election after presidential election where the popular vote winner loses the presidency --- we would have a revolution for sure (and should).
Just like the present filibuster rule in the U.S. Senate, the Repuglicans seem to want a tyranny of the minority.
Filibuster Harry
(666 posts)assure them of winning even if they go farther (if possible) to the right of where they are now.
And people better beware because if they are able to take the white house, house, and senate they will put this country backwards. They will stiff all but the rich and Rand Paul's quote of "king" will fit them. They will get rid of the Affordable Health Care Act, Social Security, Earned Income Credits, reduce the taxes on the rich, eliminate estate tax and capital gains tax, etc. They will starve the beast. BEWARE!!!
So let's drop the electoral college and go popular vote.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,166 posts)Years ago i was unsure if i wanted to abandon electoral college, but after seeing at what lengths the repubs will go to rig the election, i think a change is needed..
Now i think having the national popular vote is the way to go...It would actually make the bigger states like CA, NY, TX, which aren't comeptitive now in the electoral sense, but could become significant in a popular vote total....
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)...as it may be our ONLY chance of stopping this electoral vote scheme in State Senates of PA, OH, MI, WI, and FL.
Jamaal510
(10,893 posts)former9thward
(32,046 posts)Both candidates would have run completely different campaigns. They would have concentrated on swing congressional districts in all 50 states.
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)in most of these congressional districts, most often better people than the jackwagon Rs who won. But, the R won because of the gerrymandering.
Barrack Obama could have campaigned the entire election and put every cent he had into our district, and he would not have won it.
There really are not a lot of "swing" districts at this point.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)There are hardly any left after Republicans redrew the district maps following their victories in 2010. Virtually every district is now either a conservative rural area, or a liberal urban area.
We have only ourselves to blame for not getting our base out to vote in the 2010 midterm elections. We can NEVER make that mistake again.
former9thward
(32,046 posts)Both parties pour money into them. The swing districts are mainly suburban areas.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,336 posts)If you define a 'swing state' as one that either candidate won by a margin of less than 7% this time, there were 10 swing states - from North Carolina to Wisconsin (next state on either side was Georgia and Minnesota). Use the same margin for congressional seats, and there were 40. To get 73 House seats as 'marginal', you have to increase the margin to 12% (that would have in included Paul Ryan's seat, which certainly would have been sweet to win). By that criterion, you'd call Mississippi and New Mexico marginal states, and there would be 19 in all.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)That's pathetic. It leaves little room for compromise on anything.
LiberalFighter
(51,005 posts)Stardust
(3,894 posts)NPolitics1979
(613 posts)FL
Republican wins FL-1,FL-2,FL-3,FL-4,FL-6,FL-7,FL-8,FL-10,FL-11,FL-12,FL-15,FL-16,FL-17,FL-18,FL-19,and FL-25=16ev
Democrat wins FL-5,FL-9,FL-14,FL-20,FL-21,FL-22,FL-23,FL-24,FL-26,and FL-27=10ev
Tossup=FL-13 and Statewide=3ev
IA
Democrats win IA-1,IA-2 and Statewide=4ev(14ev)
Republicans win IA-4=1ev(17ev)
Tossup=IA-3=1ev(4ev)
MI
Democrats win MI-5,MI-9,MI-12,MI-13,MI-14 and Statewide=7ev(21ev)
Republicans win MI-1,MI-2,MI-3,MI-4,MI-6,MI-7,MI-8,MI-10,and MI-11=9ev(26ev)
OH
Democrats win OH-3,OH-9,OH-11,and OH-13=4ev(25ev)
Republicans win OH-1,OH-2,OH-4,OH-5,OH-6,OH-7,OH-8,OH-10,OH-12,OH-14,OH-15,and OH-16=12ev(38ev)
Tossup=Statewide=2ev(6ev)
PA
Democrats win PA-1,PA-2,PA-13,PA-14,PA-17,and Statewide=7ev(32ev)
Republicans win PA-3,PA-4,PA-5,PA-6,PA-7,PA-8,PA-9,PA-10,PA-11,PA-12,PA-15,PA-16,and PA-18=13ev(51ev)
VA
Democrats win VA-3,VA-8,and VA-11=3ev(35ev)
Republicans win VA-1,VA-4,VA-5,VA-6,VA-7,VA-9,and VA-10=7ev(58ev)
Tossup=VA-2 and Statewide=3ev(9ev)
WI
Democrats win WI-2,WI-3,WI-4,and Statewide=5ev(40ev)
Republicans win WI-1,WI-5,WI-6,WI-7,and WI-8=5ev(63ev)
Democrats win CA-55,CO-9,CT-7,DE-3,DC-3,HI-4,IL-20,ME-4,MD-10,MA-11,MN-10,NV-6,NH-4,NJ-14,NM-5,NY-29,OR-7,RI-4,VT-3,and WA-12=220ev
Republicans win AL-9,AK-3,AZ-11,AR-6,GA-16,ID-4,IN-11,KS-6,KY-8,LA-8,MS-6,MO-10,MT-3,NE-5,NC-15,ND-3,OK-7,SC-9,SD-3,TN-11,TX-38,UT-6,WV-5,and WY-3=206ev
Democrats have 260ev
Republicans have 269ev
Democrats need to win FL-13 and Statewide,IA-3,OH Statewide,VA-2 and Statewide plus
Philidelphia suburban Congressional Districts(PA-6,PA-7,and PA-8), and VA-4 and VA-10, FL-25
Democrats could win the popular vote in NC-15 (proportional representation-Democrats win NC-1,NC-4,and NC-12).
SpartanDem
(4,533 posts)what do think going to happen if the popular vote winner loses the election? Do they think we would just peacefully accept stealing an election?
Stardust
(3,894 posts)from us thanks to the Supreme Court and Katherine Harris. And if truth be known, 2004 was stolen thanks to Ohio and Ken Blackwell. These aren't conspiracy theories, they're facts.
Millions knew the score back then yet there was no uprising or even investigations.
This is an indictment against the vast majority of the American people who've gotten exactly what they deserve.
Johnny2X2X
(19,082 posts)What can be done to stop this? They already have their messaging circulating to justify this. "You're vote won't count for nothing now if your candidate didn't win your state, they'll still ge a portion of the EVs." Doing it by Congressional Districts is not even necessary, they'll do it by %vote equals % of EVs.
All the Republicans have to do is have a few key Dem states split their EVs and they will have shifted the landscape in their favor tremendously. Think VA, PA, WI, OH. IF the best a Dem candidate could do was a little more than half the electoral votes of these states it would be a very tough road to victory. Of course Red states would all still be winner take all.
What is being done to stop this? Can it be stopped?