New MI poll surprisingly Obama leads by only four points

[WI_DEM]

I would have thought that with Obama saving the auto industry that the lead in Michigan would be stronger, along with the relative difficulty Mittens had winning his 'home' state against Rick Santorum:

Comment: President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 4 points, which is a closer matchup than in Januarywhen Obama led Romney 48 to 40 percent. The biggest change from January came from Independent voters, who supported Obama then by a 49 to 28 percent plurality. Now, that lead has evaporated andRomney narrowly leads by 2 points, 41 to 39 percent.
Republicans also firmed up in their support of Romney, increasing their support from 79 to 10 percent,to 86 to 7 percent. GOP voters are becoming more accepting of the fact that Romney is the likely Republican nominee.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/EPIC_MRA_April2012C.pdf

[Arkana]

1. A sample size of only 600 with a 4% MOE?

Not a good poll if you ask me. No way we lose Michigan.

[rufus dog]

2. will need to look at the demographics of MI

Last edited Tue Apr 10, 2012, 11:52 AM - Edit history (1)

38% Dem, 37% Rep, 21% Ind. Seems like a high mix of repubs, not sure will need to look a bit deeper.

Edit to add: Quick search of demographics of the State seems to validate that Republicans were over polled.

[polichick]

3. George Romney was a very popular governor...

There may be goodwill toward Mitt on his behalf, at least among older voters.

[WI_DEM]

4. well, according to the poll older voters favor Obama while younger ones favor Mitt.

which is very strange.

[polichick]

7. That really is strange. Oh well, so much for the Daddy George theory!

[Robbins]

5. Poll

This outfit back In 2008 had Obama underperforming his final total although they had Obama winning.

Get worried If a crediable pollster like PPP has michigan close.

I find It strange they would have Obama leading amon older voters and Romney leading younger voters and Independents.
Most polls have Obama leading Independnets.

[denem]

6. EPIC▪MRA is going rogue. n/t

[Marsala]

8. There are always outliers

It's only significant if multiple polls show a similar result.

[DCBob]

9. Hard to believe its that close.

But 4 is still decent especially when we not yet begun to fight.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I've said it once and I'll say it again: don't look at just one poll...

One poll doesn't tell the whole story. You've got to look at a collection of polls because one could be off. Obama might only lead by 4 in this one, however, in a NBC Poll from a little over a month ago, Obama led 51-33. A poll done a week before that, by PPP, had his lead at 54-38 - so, you're seeing a trend forming. It's possible his lead has dipped a bit, but without any further evidence, it's pointless to take one result and say, "well, he's not doing as well there as he should!"

To show you what I mean, look at the polls from '08 in Michigan:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_mccain_vs_obama-553.html#polls

Most had him up double-digits. Then there was a poll from early October that had his lead at...five.

So, no point in getting upset over one poll. If all the other polls start showing a similar result, then you doubt.