Why Republicans Can Get Away With Ignoring Their Problems

[UCmeNdc]

Republicans have a problem with young voters.

Democrats have a problem with young nonvoters.

That simple equation, which applies equally to minority voters, helps explain why Republicans could enjoy another strong midterm election in 2014 without solving any of the underlying demographic challenges that threaten them in the 2016 presidential race. Next year’s election could both disappoint Democrats (by frustrating their hope of recapturing the House) and mislead Republicans (by tempting them to believe they have overcome the trends that allowed Democrats to win the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections.) It could also highlight one of the forces that is making it difficult for either party to sustain unified control over Washington, even as they struggle to reach consensus on almost anything while power is divided.

These intertwined risks and opportunities are rooted in a new twist on a familiar phenomenon. The familiar part is the tendency of young and, more recently, minority voters to turn out in smaller numbers during midterms than in presidential elections. The new twist is that changing voting patterns have vastly raised the partisan stakes in those participation trends, creating systematic challenges for Democrats in midterm elections and for the GOP in presidential years.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/political-connections/why-republicans-can-get-away-with-ignoring-their-problems-20130606

[Scuba]

1. "Republican light" is not going to win the Democrats any votes from the non-voters. If ...

... the President wants a Democratically-controlled Congress then he needs to get out in front on some issues that will pull large (read: very large) numbers of voters into the booths in November, 2014.

The Republican faithful will vote; they always do well in mid-terms. Behaving like a moderate Republican will not overcome that.

There are a whole lot of folks who don't normally vote, but would, if the President offered them something. Something like ...

... a serious increase in minimum wage

... strengthening Social Security

... expanding Medicare

... legalizing pot

... protecting homeowners from predatory banks

... protecting voting rights

[Socal31]

3. That sounds great for a Presidential run.

But unless the local representative being voted on sends the same message(s), I don't know if it will necessarily drive out the incumbent base that is usually not charged up during mid-terms.

I think an easy-to-comprehend unified single-issue is needed. Something strong and emotional. The Repubs have theirs: The 2nd amendment.

Now what will ours be? You may be on to something good with your first idea.

[Laelth]

2. This is an interesting analysis. n/t

Last edited Sun Jun 9, 2013, 08:33 AM - Edit history (1)

-Laelth