Obama’s Brilliant Move Deals A Blow To The GOP’s 2014 Hopes

[silvershadow]

With one brilliant political masterstroke, the Obama administration pulled the rug out from Republicans who were hoping to run against Obamacare in 2014.

An innocent looking blog post at the Department of the Treasury has turned the GOP’s strategy for the 2014 election on its ear. Mark J. Mazur wrote, “The Administration is announcing that it will provide an additional year before the ACA mandatory employer and insurer reporting requirements begin. This is designed to meet two goals. First, it will allow us to consider ways to simplify the new reporting requirements consistent with the law. Second, it will provide time to adapt health coverage and reporting systems while employers are moving toward making health coverage affordable and accessible for their employees. Within the next week, we will publish formal guidance describing this transition.”

Republicans have been telegraphing since they lost the 2012 election that they intended to run against the employer mandate. John Boehner mentions Obamacare every week when he meets with the media for a reason. Republicans at both the congressional and state level can’t run on their economic records. They can’t run on their legislative records. Republicans were planning on making 2014 a replay of 2010 by focusing on Obamacare, but the White House kneecapped them with an announcement that nobody expected.

Republican former CBO director, Douglas Holtz-Eakin explained why this announcement was both a stunner and deviously brilliant, “Democrats no longer face the immediate specter of running against the fallout from a heavy regulatory imposition on employers across the land. Explaining away the mandate was going to be a big political lift; having the White House airbrush it from the landscape is way better. It helps with ObamaCare in other ways as well. The administration was flailing to find high-profile allies (e.g., the National Football League) to advertise the wonders of ObamaCare. In a single masterstroke it has given every company a reason to explain its existence (“don’t worry, you’ll be fine in the exchanges”) and created a de facto advertising campaign of enormous scale and reach. Deviously brilliant.”
--------------------

One can only hope.

[graham4anything]

1. President Obama, simply the best.

After LBJ, there has never been better than President Obama.

As someones signature line says "I love waking up and Barack Obama is President".

Too bad they can't repeal the 22nd, but Hillary in 2016 will be just fine by me.

AND Supreme Court Justice Obama in 2018 sounds pretty nice too.

[BlueCaliDem]

5. Supreme Court Justice Obama would be perfect! I never thought about that.

But the Democrats really, really need to grow a spine, both in the Senate and the states, for that to happen.

Republicans have sold the gullible voting Americans on, Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! to win the 2010 elections, and Independents fell for that lie, giving the Republicans waaaay too much power in the majority of states. Their goal has always been to gain and keep political power (in order to pass egregious pro-corporate laws), and in order to do that, they had to gerrymander districts to ensure only Republican candidates could win.

Now, if the Democrats had half a spine, they would do a little Tom-Delay-gerrymandering themselves to level the political playing field. I don't see that happening thus I don't see Democrats winning the House back in 2014 and obstructionism will continue to happen until President Obama is out of office and the next Democratic President is inaugurated in January 2017.

[yeoman6987]

15. Implementation of Obamacare

I am not sure why this is good news. So instead of Obamacare being implemented on October 1, 2013, it is now going to be implemented on October 1, 2014. Remember this is Fiscal Year and not calendar year. So one month before the election this is going to begin? Why not allow it now and get the kinks out of it over the year. If implementation is going to be a mess than why have it implemented one month before election.

[graham4anything]

16. Obama roped-a-doped the opposition again.NO exclusions, NO lifetime caps-now part of the land.

the mandate is only a small part of the whole package.
My premiums have already decreased 65% by the fact, I was allowed to change.
Obama roped-a-doped the opposition again.

Simply the best

The NO exclusions is now the law
The NO lifetime caps is now the law

all the good stuff

[yeoman6987]

32. Obama roped-a-doped the opposition again.NO exclusions, NO lifetime caps-now part of the land.

The best decision I ever made in my life was to recently join Democratic Underground. You have no idea how horrible it is getting "news" from the other sources available. It is so nice to have such intelligent people like yourself telling it like it is without sugar coating it or trying to BS your way out of it. Facts are important and you present them with your posts which I appreciate so much. Thank you so much for your informed posts to me and all of us.

[cantbeserious]

2. I Don't Buy The N-Dimensional Chess Arguments Any Longer

eom

[silvershadow]

3. I can't say I disagree with you...I think the Republicans will implode without much more help.

Providing, of course, that the PTB don't rig anything.

[cantbeserious]

13. Imploding Republicans - Where Is The Black Hole When Most Needed

eom

[BlueCaliDem]

4. Judging by the posts you've written and I've read,

have you ever? I seriously doubt it.

[graham4anything]

6. +1

[cantbeserious]

8. I Voted For Obama Twice - Disillusionment All Around - What More Needs To Be Said

eom

[BlueCaliDem]

9. Suuuuuuuure, you did.

[cantbeserious]

12. Skeptics Abound - All Around - At DU

eom

[frylock]

27. did YOU vote for obama?

[BlueCaliDem]

35. What do you think? eom

[frylock]

36. why don't you tell me?

[BlueCaliDem]

38. I did. With my post and with my avatar. Sorry you missed it. eom

[frylock]

41. Suuuuuuuure, you did.

ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh!

[BlueCaliDem]

43. Predictable. But also childish.

Ask any of your fellow anti-Obamanites, and they'll tell you that, based on my DU posts {you know? The reason why I took that poster to task to begin with rather than having this insatiable need to relive my twelve year old days like you?}, I am pro-Obama. Any idiot could then deduce that I've voted for him. It's sad that you didn't understand that because your rush to act like an adolescent in defense of one of them had blinded you.

[alc]

7. I can't way to see how he dashes their 2016 hopes

Maybe defer all of the ACA until 2020? As long as the ACA is around to defer we should have an all D government forever (as well as affordable health insurance just around the corner forever).

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. I hope so

When I saw the headline about this yesterday, I felt more concern about how this would be perceived than relief about 2014. Between this and Baucus' anxiety about implementation of ACA (which he helped largely craft too) being a "trainwreck", my concern would be that further delays, setbacks in implementation would be perceived by people that ACA is in serious trouble, even though most of the problems are being needlessly exacerbated by the Republicans, particularly in the states with teabagger governors/legislatures. While implementation of a new system is always going to be cumbersome and can be difficult, I don't believe that any problems are insurmountable and I can't imagine the new system causing more issues and problems than the previous one. In many respects, I expect it to be better (not perfect yet but better) than what we had before and I can't imagine many people wanting to go back to "the way things were" with pre-existing condition denials and other benefits of the law. I would feel more hopeful about any problems with the implementation being fixed if we had a responsible Congress but, alas, we don't and I've given up hope of that until the Republicans are driven out of the majority in the House. Color me concerned but ever hopeful...........

[GeorgeGist]

11. How many innocents will get screwed?

[savalez]

21. Currently 90% of companies with more than 50 employees

already provide insurance***. So I suppose the employees of the other 10% need to wait a year or keep doing what they're doing (buying their own insurance, etc)

For the most part, the experts say, employers will decide whether to offer coverage based largely on whether they think it helps retain employees. Today, well more than 90 percent of employers with more than 50 employees decide to offer insurance for that reason. Remember: That's with no penalty at all. As Timothy Jost, the Washington and Lee law professor, writes at Health Affairs:

***Source : http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113745/obamacare-employer-mandate-delayed-not-what-doctor-ordered

[Scuba]

14. Too late. Recent revelations have demoralized much of the Democratic base ...

... and the Party offers nothing to energize any of the potential voters who stay home election after election.

[graham4anything]

17. Actually, the SCOTUS taking away voting rights acts, is the only thing anyone is focused on-the base

is energized.

95% of the democratic party supports both President Obama and Hillary Clinton.

What the other 5% think is really their concern, I go with the 95%

[Proud Liberal Dem]

19. Reading all of the doom and gloom posts here at DU is demoralizing IMHO

Outside in the real world, nobody I know who is a Democrat is really seriously demoralized that I've seen. Angry, yes, at Republicans for their behavior, policies, etc. but nobody is focusing in on the NSA as being a real reason to keep them at home. Anybody IMHO staying at home helps elect Republicans, whose "base" will, as usual, reliably turn out to vote over marriage equality, immigration reform, guns, abortion, etc.......

[Scuba]

22. The Dems I talk to are still royally pissed about Obama putting chained CPI on the table.

They see that as a horrible betrayal of everything Democrats are supposed to stand for.

[frylock]

28. how many of those people in the "real world" actually know what the fuck is going on..

you know, in the "real world?" do they follow politics as closely as most people here do, or are they more the American Idol type "real world" denizens?

[Chan790]

18. Actually, I think this is a terrible idea.

Sooner implemented is better implemented:

1.) Delay has a cost in human life.
2.) Once implementation occurs, repeal becomes increasingly difficult. All this does is kick the can 12 months down the road giving the GOP 365 more days to attempt to repeal and to campaign against Obamacare. It does the opposite of what Holtz-Eakin and Mazur suggest it does; this is like Christmas in July for the GOP.

To me, this ends the n-dimensional chess arguments; he's just shown himself to be a lot less bright than we'd been led to believe. Obama just actually validated the GOP (incorrect) arguments for repeal.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

20. +1

I don't see this as so much of a "blessing" so much as potential opportunity for the GOP to have more time to derail implementation but I'm going to trust that he had good non-political reasons to do this. The exchanges will still be getting implemented, so at least that portion will still get put into place and, quite frankly, we should probably be moving beyond employers being health care providers anyway. My employer-provided insurance has gotten so crummy, I'm actually hoping to maybe find something better on the exchange once it gets going.

[Dystram]

25. This makes no sense.

It's not the implementation of Obamacare that is delayed.

JUST the implementation of the ONE component of it that says employers with 50+ employees MUST provide healthcare, which 90% of employers already do. It's actually a pretty stupid part of the ACA to begin with.

He just DENIED state Republicans a talking point. It's great.

EVERYTHING ELSE will be implemented on time, as originally planned, minus a useless pointless component.

Also, if those 10% of employers who don't already provide health care, still choose not to, then the employees can get care from the exchanges for basically free thanks to the ACA's premium tax credit.

I can't believe Democrats are latching onto this as the linchpin of their assumption that Obama was an evil villain all along.

Both parties are not the same. Come to Ohio and I will show you just how different Democrats and Republicans really are.

[bigdarryl]

23. Big Ed is going off about this move

Saying it will put the democrats on the defense before the midterm elections

[silvershadow]

24. Thanks for the heads up. I forget about his radio show, I've never caught it. I guess I need to

find it for Iphone maybe? Not sure how else around here...

[frylock]

26. nothing shows confidence in your landmark legislation..

more than bumping it out for fear that it will cause your party to lose seats. fucking brilliant strategy! chessboards as tall as mt Everest.

[Dystram]

29. He didn't bump it.

Just one small, pointless component of it.

Man, Democrats fall so easily into despair. No wonder the Tea Party crushed us in 2010.

[frylock]

30. just that one little itty bitty component that people are having their hours cut over..

no big, right? i'm sure those employees are going to go back to their 40 hour work weeks now.

[BlueCaliDem]

39. What makes you think Democrats are falling into despair?

Just because a faceless poster on DU is doing it? One, may I add, who hasn't lost any love for President Obama . . . much like the Republicans and TeaBaggers.

It's always shouts of "Blame Obama FIRST!" and whispering, "The Republicans aren't at issue."

[Dystram]

31. N/T

"The question becomes what happens after the delay is up. Ideally, we could just repeal the employer mandate. Major laws are routinely followed by legislative corrections to smooth out their glitches. But conservatives have steadfastly followed a strategy of the worse, the better, refusing to accept any changes to Obamacare short of repeal. The employer mandate was one of the few aspects of the law that seemed likely to produce real, rather than imagined, economic damage, and thus conservatives invested a lot of their train-wreck hopes in this aspect of it.

Former Mitt Romney health adviser Avik Roy, in Forbes, floats the possibility of a lawsuit to force on-time implementation. Conservatives actually hate the employer mandate more than liberals do, but the very fact that this aspect of the law is problematic makes them more eager for it to take effect, so they can argue that the entire law must be repealed."

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/07/obama-employer-mandate-delay-train-wreck-or-not.html

You guys need to wake up and learn that politics is messy and that low-information voters are the bane of sensible policy, and that we MUST out maneuver the Republicans here, or we are absolutely fucked.

[savalez]

33. What?

You don't like baseless knee-jerk responses to almost every issue?



Good post and welcome to DU.

[Dystram]

34. Thanks!

Also, I'm always wondering why many of us STILL keep finding ways to blame Obama or the Democrats for just about everything when it's almost always the fault of the GOP.

States that don't have their exchanges up? GOP dominated.

States that won't expand Medicaid expansion? GOP dominated.

The problems we are facing are the GOP and their voters. Period.

This is a war, and I wish people would stop playing the "both parties are the same" card. There are real people getting hurt by the GOP - namely women - and there are many who are on our side who want to play neutral so that they can remain pure, and above the fray or something. I do not understand it.

These people hate you and me. They hate minorities. They hate the environment. They hate just about everything, maybe including themselves. They will destroy this country, and we must stop them.

[BlueDemKev]

42. Amen!

I wholeheartedly concur.

[frylock]

37. people are having their hours cut to 29 a week because of ACHA..

obviously, that isn't affecting you, so it's all cools, right?

[Dystram]

40. N/T

Actually it's affecting people I know and work with.

However, I am forward-thinking enough to know that it isn't a permanent change.

Also, one of the reasons the employer mandate has been delayed is so that employees hours DON'T get cut to 29 hours.

You are naive if you think that employers wouldn't cut employees' hours to 5 hours per week if the mandate said 6 hours

I know we want all our progressive goodies right now. I am just as frustrated as you. However, it is just not possible with this electorate. It is not. No matter how you spin it. Just LOOK at how hard Democrats had to fight to keep the ACA enacted, even with it's MODEST reforms, even though it was basically written by the GOP of the '90s.

Can you even imagine the backlash against single-payer? Can you imagine the current SCOTUS upholding single-payer?

If you want to change the country then you need to change the electorate, and the electorate is largely misinformed and selfish.

[BlueDemKev]

44. +1,000,000

I couldn't agree more.