John Boehner says ‘one-in-three’ chance GOP loses House

[ellisonz]

Posted by Aaron Blake at 05:00 PM ET, 04/23/2012

Speaker John Boehner is officially worried about losing the House majority this fall.

The Ohio Republican said in an interview with Fox News Channel that will run on Tuesday that there is a “one-in-three” chance that Democrats will win the House in November — a headline that will surely catch people’s attention.

“I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again, but there’s a one-in-three chance that we could lose,” Boehner said in the interview. “We’ve got a big challenge, and we’ve got work to do.”

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“We have 50 of our members in tough races, 89 freshmen running for their first reelections, and we have 32 districts that are in states where there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race — and we call these orphan districts,” Boehner said in the interview. “You take 18 of them — California, Illinois and New York — where you know we’re not likely to do well at the top of the ticket, and those districts are frankly pretty vulnerable.”

More: WaPo Story

[unblock]

1. i had our chances at less than 3%, so i'll take 33% any day!

[freshwest]

2. +1. Of course, this will bring out the wingnut vote since it was on Fox.

[Andy823]

8. Yes the wingnuts will turn out

However I think there is a whole lot of buyers remorse with the "tea party" nuts that got elected in 2010, and that is not going to help them. With a lot of the so called "christian right" who "won't" vote for Mitt, and who are very unhappy with the teabaggers they voted for in 2010, I think a huge majority of them will stay home. Not to mention the fact republicans are pissing off women, the elderly, immigrants, public employees, first responders, etc. There isn't really a whole lot of incentive to get out and vote when you are a republican this year and you can't stand the guy at the top, or the house reps that are down ticket.

I think republicans are in big trouble and it looks like Boehner knows it.

[freshwest]

9. Gosh, I hope so. But they don't seem to be backing down one bit, not in the state houses, the

State legislatures or the Congress. And they've worked relentlessly to disenfranchise Democratic voters. May this be the turning of the tide. We can move forward in the this country instead of back a thousand years as the Koch brothers want us to go.

[Andy823]

12. True they aren't backing down

I think they want to do as much damage as they can in case they do lose their jobs, and I think a lot of them will. They are simply crazy, and they are not just making democrats angry. A lot of people who have voted republican in the past will be hurt by the republican agenda, and while some of the insane base won't care, many who are not so insane are not happy. No mater what party you are in, when you take a hard look at what has been going on, it's pretty clear the republicans in congress are out to help the rich, not the average person, and while many of those who have voted republican in the past might not vote for the democrats, I still see a lot of them just staying home, and that will help Obama and the democrats down ticket, that is if we can make sure democrats get out and vote and don't sit home like many seemed to have done in 2010.

[freshwest]

15. Thanks Andy, that's the best argument I've heard today. I'll remember that and keep working on them.

[Bake]

20. Backing down? More like doubling down.

The nuts just keep on coming.

Bake

[freshwest]

23. We agree, no question about that.

[alp227]

13. Buyers' remorse? Among whom? The conservatives or independents?

There are probably people who voted Republican for many elections in a row and then those who sit on the fence.

[elleng]

3. LET'S DO IT!!!

[ellisonz]

4. Fired up!

Ready to go!

[Dawson Leery]

5. K/R! Let's get to work.

Winning the house is realistic.
:kick:

[and-justice-for-all]

6. Get those road block fuckers out of there!!! nt

[global1]

7. Let's See What We Can Do To Make Those Odds Better For The Dems......

it appears that it is realistic that the Dems can take back the house. In my opinion it is within striking distance - so let's see what we can do to take back the House for our President and by the way - maintain the Senate.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

10. In my misbegotten yute, I recall similar odds when Carter was seeking reelection.

Even though too many Democrats, including Kennedy, were aiming at his back, most still thought initially, that Carter would prevail. I was too innocent in those days to ever consider that people of the same party would actively sabotage a campaign.

[emulatorloo]

11. Let's Send the Teabags and the Boners home! GOTV! n/t

[surrealAmerican]

14. Is he taking bets?

It's a bit strange, the way he's making odds here.

[freshwest]

24. I wonder if the odds makers have an opinion on this election?

Jimmy the Greek had a reputation on this, good or bad. I found a list of odds he'd made in past elections:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1123768/index.htm

Nothing about these races now, although he was right some times.

[racaulk]

16. I would love nothing more than to see this again:

[ellisonz]

19. Beautiful sight!

[freshwest]

25. And then the war on women would be over, no way she'd allow what's going on now.

[The Magistrate]

17. Those Are About His Best Chances Of Holding It, Sir

The total vote for Republicans running for the House in 2010 was lower than the total vote for Republicans running for the House in 2008.

[former9thward]

21. The total vote for Democrats was lower in 2010 than 2008.

Non-presidential election years always have lower vote totals.

[The Magistrate]

26. So What, Sir?

What gives it point is that the winning total in 2010 was less than the losing total in 2008. That points towards serious trouble for the other side in this Presidential year, and also makes hash of attempts to claim 2010 represented some great increase in radical right sentiment in the country/

[Cosmocat]

27. They are most vulnberable the first two go arounds, but

the fact is, the morons who get elected in 2010 are still incumbents.

We are stuck with most of the class of 94 for a decade or more.

I think as long as things go the way the APPEAR to go, President Obama SHOULD win reelect, and the Ds should make gains in the House. But, I tend to agree with Boner that taking the House back is less than 50%. And, sadly, given the way the seats are this year, the Rs actually have a good chance to get control of the senate.

Ds have to absolutely get behind the president and KILL it to avoid this scenario.

[former9thward]

28. It is foolish to compare vote totals in a Presidential election with a non-presidential year.

The number of people voting is far lower. Compare with 2004, 2000.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

18. So

is he acknowledging that maybe the American public just "isn't into them"?

[grantcart]

22. the Republican internals must be brutal, absolutely brutal.

[Thrill]

29. There must just be some shitty Candidates

out there for Democrats.

The Republicans haven't done shit since taking over and they still may keep it? Unreal

[BlueIris]

30. Wish I could be that optimistic.

That'd be nice. Especially since I think we're still in a bad place via the Senate. Biden's comments from early last year are still relevant:

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/03/22/democrats-could-lose-senate-biden-warns-party/

[NNRA]

31. I think it's One-in-three they keep it

There is no doubt in my mind that they are about to lose, and big. I wouldn't be surprised if Dems take the house with room to spare. They might get 3/4 of the house. Just saying.