Last Days Of Southern Democrats? Fate Of The Few Remaining Could Swing Senate Control To GOP

[Purveyor]

By DONNA CASSATA | ASSOCIATED PRESS | 58 minutes ago in Politics

The fate of Democratic incumbents in GOP-trending Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, the ability of the 71-year-old GOP leader to hold his Kentucky seat and the eventual outcome of a Georgia primary will help decide whether Republicans gain the six seats necessary to grab power in the Senate for the final two years of Barack Obama's presidency.

Fifteen months before Election Day, the GOP has a genuine shot at the majority, especially with the midterm elections' traditional low turnout and possible Obama fatigue on the party's side. But both Republicans and Democrats stop short of writing off several Democratic incumbents who would have to lose for the GOP to regain power, and some Republicans worry about holding GOP seats in Kentucky and Georgia.

The transformation of the South from solidly Democratic to nearly all Republican in the half century since the 1964 Civil Rights Act has made the states generally inhospitable to Democratic politicians. And next year's elections will test whether the last remaining Southern Democrats can survive.

Overall numbers and geography favor the GOP _ 21 Democratic seats are on state ballots compared with 14 Republican. Seven of the Democratic seats are in states that Obama lost in 2012 to Republican Mitt Romney, some by 15 points or more. Adding to the GOP bullishness: Democratic retirements in three of the seven states _ West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota _ and a few recruiting disappointments.

MORE...

http://www.newser.com/article/da81ut9g3/last-days-of-southern-democrats-fate-of-the-few-remaining-could-swing-senate-control-to-gop.html

[PoliticAverse]

1. Nate Silver: Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/

[Dawson Leery]

2. McConnell is in a tight race. Georgia is looking the same way.

Georgia Rethugs may nominate Todd Akin's twin Phil Broun.

The GOP is unpopular in NC, which helps Hagen.

It is still early.

[Arkansas Granny]

3. It was just a few years ago that Arkansas had a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic Senators

and all but one Representative was a Democrat. Today we have 1 Senator who will have to run for re-election in 2014 and the Governor who can't run again due to term limits. It's going to be a battle in 2014 to keep the few Dems we have left, much less make any gains.

[sofa king]

4. Wow. I have issues with this.

First of all, Dixiecrats--the racist, conservative, asshole Democrats whose heritage stretches back to the aftermath of the Civil War--have been dead as a political unit since the Civil Rights battles of the early 1960s. The end of their influence can be rather clearly dated by the defection of Robert Byrd--not away from the Democratic Party, but away from the vile principles all Republicans and their Southern Democrat brethren continue to uphold. Dixiecrat staybehinds have steadily waned in influence ever since and are virtually insignificant now.

Second, I find it hard to believe that political tea-leaf readers have failed to notice that Republicans have been unable to win national and statewide elections for the better part of a decade now--longer than that if you discount Shrub's stolen elections. Republicans were stomped 2 to 1 in the last Senate elections, their core constituency is quickly dying off as a result of Republican policies, and few of them can afford to vote against their own interests as they could only ten years ago.

Third, if Democrats can win out in all states outside of the Old Confederacy in the same way they did last time, they can bag a 61 seat supermajority in the Senate in 2014, without a single damned Dixiecrat on the roster.

Fourth, if Mitt Romney is brought to trial for tax evasion next summer, he will effectively be running alongside all Republican Senatorial candidates in 2014, and his touch-of-bullshit will caress them all.

Fifth, the greatest political mind we have, our President, already appears to have been setting the stage for personal involvement in these upcoming elections. If he can game the table so that the next election is another Obama-Romney mandate, we will clean house.

So I'm highly positive about the upcoming elections and I would encourage my fellow Democrats to keep these circumstances in mind as we work to realize a Senate supermajority and control of the House next year. We can do it. It might just wind up looking easy.

[Bluenorthwest]

8. I agree with you far more than with the OP.

Some details I'd put differently, but basically I think you have a good read on it.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Granted there have been some setbacks in states like NC, VA

and GA because not enough Democrats showed up in 2010. I don't care what anyone here says. We simply did not show up...well, at least not nearly enough of us. So, there has been some regression in those states.

But when I look at my home state of Georgia, I do see some positive changes. Atlanta is moving out geographically, taking some progressive politics with it. For example, when I was growing up, there were no black, brown or yellow faces in places like Stone Mountain or Gwinett County. That has changed drastically. Not only is there more diversity in those places, they have become increasingly progressive, especially Stone Mountain.

For the American South, it'll take time, but the waves of change are already in motion. I still think there's hope for Georgia, NC, and Texas. It'll take awhile, but it's coming.

[mgcgulfcoast]

5. too much doom and gloom

i think we break even in 2014 and hold our current margin.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. "Obama fatigue"?

What has happened to cause "Obama fatigue"? It can't be anything like the feeling we all had in 2006 about being fed up with Bushco and Republicanism in general, can it? In a way, it's probably been a good thing that we haven't had a completely Democratic Congress and WH for the past (almost) six years so that the Republicans can't grab the "change" banner and run with it, particularly when they've been part of the problem. Plus, assuming they win a Senate majority just out of sheer turnout, what will they be able to do differently? They won't be able to repeal Obamacare or anything else without a supermajority and anything they approve can (and most likely) will be swiftly vetoed by President Obama.

[blkmusclmachine]

7. BHO still wouldn't be able to do anything even if the DEMS win all those seats.

IMHO

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. We all knew that there would come a day when all of the national

Blue Dog Democrats ("Dixiecrats&quot from the South would be extinct. Maybe it's for the best. The south will continue to change demographically. Yes, we lose now, but not for too long. As the bigots continue to die off, there will be a new breed of young, aspiring progressive Democrats from the South and elsewhere.

If we want it badly enough and work hard for it--AND NOT GIVE UP--it can and will happen.

[Fringe]

11. I agree.

Everything you said!

[Tippy]

12. I too agree..

[struggle4progress]

13. In 2012 NC Congressional elections, 22.18 million voted D and 21.37 million voted R

But gerrymandering of districts bizarrely produced 4 D Congressional Representatives and 9 R Congressional Representatives. Compare the ratios 22.18/21.37 = 1.04 and 4/9 = 0.44

Rs did beat Ds in the 2012 state house race: 19.05 million voted D and 20.05 million voted R. But again gerrymandering of districts produced wildly disproportionate results: 18 D state representatives and 32 R state representatives. Compare the ratios too 19.05/20.05 =0.95 and 18/32 = 0.56

NC has usually been closely divided between Ds and Rs. Our current extremist Congressional delegation and General Assembly reflect gerrymandering, not major changes in voting patterns

[illegaloperation]

14. The article is incorrect about North Carolina

North Carolina is not trending Republican; it is trending Democratic.

Also, with all the craziness happening in the General Assembly after the Republicans took over, Kay Hagan will probably cruse to victory (especially if her opponent is Thom Tillis).