GOP’s secret fear: House majority is in trouble

[DonViejo]

Top Republicans are increasingly concerned that their unpopularity and incompetence could soon cost them the House

BY BRIAN BEUTLER

If you listened closely last week, you heard the unmistakable sound of the air of certainty seeping out of a bubble of conventional wisdom. For months — in some cases, years — political junkies have held the notion that the GOP’s House majority was semi-permanent as an article of faith. Times change.

After the elections in November, the GOP’s hold on the House was almost universally thought to be unshakable, at least in the coming midterms, possibly through the end of the decade. Republicans had used the huge gains they made in 2010 to redraw the congressional map in a way that made their majority immune from referendum. Democrats won the popular vote for the House by over a million ballots in 2012 and didn’t come close to recapturing it. The economy could soar, Republicans could spiral out of control, and the Democrats would still have a hard time winning back the House before the next census in 2020.

Nothing’s changed about the map in the past 10 months, and the country’s as polarized as ever. But suddenly Republicans aren’t so confident that their majority is all that durable. Or to put it less charitably, the party worries it’s so rudderless and unpopular that it might blow what everyone believed to be a rigged game much sooner than expected.

In three different stories, four reporters with strong Republican sourcing detected a specter of doubt haunting the GOP. The Washington Examiner’s Byron York distilled it most clearly.

full article
http://www.salon.com/2013/08/19/republicans_fear_theyll_blow_their_permanent_house_majority/

[blm]

1. I don't believe they're worried. They know extreme gerrymandering will keep them safe.

.

[tanyev]

2. Petard. Hoisted.

Fingers crossed.

[Berlum]

3. America's secret hope

[tridim]

4. It takes incredible incompetence to only notice now that your party is unpopular and incompetent.

Heckuva job teabaggers!

[vi5]

5. They won't lose the house.

It's just not going to happen. They've gerrymandered their way to a near permanent majority. I think any reports of "worry" are simply to keep them in check and not allow complacency to set in.

[Demeter]

6. That's Funny. They Don't Act Scared. They Don't Talk Scared.

and the polls aren't scary, either. This is just to pump up the troops.

[awoke_in_2003]

7. yep. nt

[Kber]

9. Maybe (well probably, really)

but maybe this kind of story is the shot in the arm democrats need. If we're convinced up front it's hopeless, why bother voting, fundraising, or working for candidates at all? But if there's a glimmer, well, then, maybe, really just maybe, it's worth the work to try.

[Demeter]

10. It's designed to milk the GOP little people, again. As well as the Corporations

The Democrats need more than a shot in the arm. Even a kick in the pants is insufficient. We need to clean OUR house before we can clean the nation's House.

[geek tragedy]

12. how's your "impeach Obama because of the emergency broadcast system" drive going?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3190546

Oops, that's not fair. You were calling for impeaching Obama in December 2009.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7127032&mesg_id=7127101

And in 2011.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4886453

Excuse us if we don't take you seriously on the issue of needing to defeat Republicans.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1116&pid=36138

[dionysus]

15. !!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. I would like to think (hope?) that at least some Republican voters in some districts

desire and expect some degree of competence and service in their elected representatives. Could be mistaken, of course, but just because they've gerrymandered themselves into "safe" Republican districts doesn't necessarily mean that Republican voters are all crazy-eyed teabaggers (though all teabaggers undeniably vote Republican)

[bahrbearian]

11. Whats Nate Silver saying?

[winter is coming]

17. He hopes to have some new House forecasts out next week. n/t

[1StrongBlackMan]

13. So ...

a couple of "political pundits" have pointed to the elephant in the room ... that the republicans are in serious trouble (and republicans quietly understand this, but can't say so out loud). There have policies that no one wants and their candidates are worst. They have ostracized women; they are losing Hispanics and they never had African-Americans.

It is, or becoming, clear that the only way that republicans can hold the House and/or avoid a 60+ Senate is for Democrats, Liberals, Progressives and the youth vote to under-perform.

So ... it's no wonder that they are turning, full-bore, to disenfranchisement schemes and are ginning up "scandal" after "scandal"; but has anyone, in-house, made the connection of this reality and the "sudden" rise of "democrat" vs Democrat conflict on Democratic message boards? What about the "sudden" rise of libertarian (albeit, "Civil" libertarians) posting 24/7 criticisms of President Obama and Democrats, in general, on Democratic message boards?

I'm sure this is just a coincidence! I mean ... nothing like this had been brewing in the republican party with the libertarian "paul revolution." Right? The only difference is, the republicans had the good sense to close them out of the republican convention; whereas, Democrats seem to welcome them into our big tent ... after all, they agree with us that wars are bad and so is an expanded surveillence state ... never-mind all that other stuff.

[blkmusclmachine]

14. DEMS to the rescue.

Sadly, not joking.

[WI_DEM]

16. the gerrymandering will keep them in control

though they might lose a few more seats than they expect.