Princeton Researcher suggests some gerrymandered districts not all that safe

[Left Coast2020]

Ok, I don't mean to be a bore presenting "oh hum" statistical data from a study. But It has relevance in this case. Some of you may be aware that Move-On did a poll with PPP--sampling over two dozen congressional districts held by R's. I didn't see it, but apparently the study found some openings for Dem's.

I was watching MSNBC's Karen Finney tonight and her guest was EJ Dionne and Sam Wang who said "you should read this study" (by Sam Wang). Bells and alarms went off in my head. I had to read this myself.

I'm going to try to explain this as best I can after a glass of wine. So with people all across the country pissed at congress for the shutdown, it appears the "marginal" win districts by R's are districts that can change. Wang used the phrase" hard swing" in opposite direction. I didn't realize that there were districts that had a "marginal" space to work with--meaning some moderate R's could go in different direction. But apparently there are some districts with some wiggle room for a "D".

This gives meaning to my previous post here for "turning out" next year. If D's mobilize BIG TIME, we are assured getting the House back and retaining the Senate. If mid-term elections are known for low-voter response, I have a feeling that 2014 may be the exception. We need to constantly think of turnout, and increasing voter registration. It may be a year away, but the work starts now. Finally, DFA sent me an e-mail the other day and suggested that D's could pick-up 30 seats. Did anyone see that message? 18-20 seats--yes. But 30? Has someone been smoking something funny?


http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/09/partisan-gerrymanderings-hidden-burden/

t’s the House Republicans in marginal districts who could see their ranks decimated, just like the House Democratic moderates whose anti-Obamacare votes couldn’t save them in 2010.

[Lil Missy]

1. I sincerely hope us Dems do take the House. It would mean

getting an awful lot done in Obamas last 2 years.

[Roland99]

2. Only if Reid finally grows a pair and reforms the filibuster rules

[CTyankee]

5. Perhaps this is a gathering storm for the repubs...and Reid sees his opportunity to strike while the

iron is hot...

Last week Mike Allen of Politico mentioned that Dems have found that female Dem candidates fare better in red district polling than the male Dems. This could be another opening for Dems. Running women who stand up for basic reproductive rights against these republican cave men could rally some republican women to switch to the Dem ticket.

[Roland99]

8. Perhaps they *are* considering it! >>>>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014619303

[Snake Plissken]

3. This is why it is so important to fight the GOP's voter suppression tactics

This is precisely why they are trying to purge not GOPer from the lists of eligible voters.

[CTyankee]

6. If I had the misfortune of voting in a red state that had onerous voter suppression laws, I would

choose to put my efforts as a volunteer, helping potentially disenfranchised people secure their voting rights. I would do everything I could to help them get registered, including driving them to the polls. I'm retired and I volunteer currently to tutor ESOL, but this effort would be paramount to my political interests. Fortunately for me, I live in one of the bluest cities in the country, New Haven CT, and I know how truly lucky I am...

[cui bono]

4. k n r

[flamingdem]

7. Here is our task:

If D's mobilize BIG TIME, we are assured getting the House back and retaining the Senate.

[Left Coast2020]

9. I'm hoping that there are wiser minds out there than us who know how to turn things around.

That pertaining to sway voters our direction. Case in point: the article pointed out the survey done by Move-On which polled several districts. But I'm guessing Move-On selected specific districts to put under the microscope--nearly 40 total.

The powers that be say we need 17 seats to get the House back, but in reality I believe its 16 because Bats*** Bachmann is quitting. I saw somewhere a story about her winning by only about 2000 votes. That would indicate her district is a bit more competive. After seeing this article, one could probably say we need 14-15 seats to get House back.

But as per Move-On, I'm thinking that they have something under their hat we don't know about. And why should we. They are the brains behind the finite functions of educating voters--along with DFA which is likely working on state campaigns (thank you Dr. Dean) so gerrymandering won't be as easy for repukes. And on that point, I think it should be against the law to gerrymander and have districts drawn by a commission of voters--not thugs.

Thats where its at is at the state level.

So if the districts are nearly 40 that were examined, perhaps its possible that we could pick up more than 20. Who knows? There are a lot of unknown-unknowns out there. But maybe there are some known-knowns that exist in the data. We may all find out later as the days progress.

And yes, we absolutely need to mobilize to have HIGH voter turnout and change the history books for mid-term voter numbers.

[Buddha_of_Wisdom]

10. He's right.

Even the badly gerrymandered district can be corrected with time and voter education. Start today!

Time to take the time to talk to the neighbors, show charts, show how dangerous the Tea Party has become, and how much they want to be the king.

It's time to remove the Republicans from every single political position and thrown out on the streets, denied a job for the rest of their lives - no welfare either since the Republicans doesn't want welfare and they can put on their big boy pants and go look for something to eat in a dumpster.

[Coyotl]

11. Winning the House is doable for several reasons. Turnout can make the difference alone, but

remember that there is also a major demographic shift since the last mid-term, 8% of those voters will be dead.
That's right, a lot of old, white conservatives are going to be six feet under. Oh, happy day .....