Salon - "The Inevitable Republican Collapse That Will End the Shutdown" - A Bit Optimistic

[TomCADem]

I do think that this piece by Noam Scheiber assumes a certain level of civic responsibility that I don't think is present in today's Republican party, which I think sort of wants to blow everything up for shits and giggles, but assuming there is an iota of responsibility, then perhaps this scenario could play out.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115171/shutdown-2013-deal-will-end-it?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=margin&utm_campaign=mostpopular

The problem for the GOP is that, as insulated as the House jihadis are from national trends, Senate Republicans and House pragmatists emphatically are not. When the approval rating for Republicans drops nationally, these people are badly exposed. They begin to fear for their jobs. They become desperate to cut a deal—any deal—that will end their political pain. And once they do—once there is a deal that a large chunk of Republicans either explicitly sign onto or tacitly endorse—then it is game over for the House. There is simply no House Republican leader who can resist a bill that many if not most Republicans want to see pass, a bill that has passed the Senate, and to which the only alternative is the complete annihilation of both the Republican Party and the global economy.

In retrospect, it’s easy to see how we ended up here: The Tea Partiers, high on their own apocalyptic fantasies, force the GOP down a strategically catastrophic path. For a few days, they are convinced that victory is at hand. The feedback they get from their constituents is overwhelmingly positive. The right-wing media urges them on. They are convinced providence is on their side. “This is about the happiest I’ve seen members in a long time because we’ve seen we’re starting to win this dialogue,” Michele Bachmann told Sean Hannity on Day Two of the shutdown.

At this point, the Tea Partiers are so convinced of their own impending success that sober Republicans, mainstream reporters, even liberals begin to wonder if there isn’t something to it—if they haven’t badly underestimated the public’s appetite for thuggery. At which point it all collapses. The polls trickle in and they are horrific. The pragmatic wing of the party is completely demoralized. It lashes out more violently than before. The national media both encourages and adds to their derision of conservatives. Suddenly every Republican in town is shopping his own terms of surrender. The biggest challenge for Democrats isn’t getting their way. It’s that there are so many offers, it’s hard to know which one to take. Politico labeled the spectacle a “buyer’s market” for Barack Obama, massively understating the point. It is a buyer’s market in the sense that the day after the Super Bowl is a buyer’s market for pork rinds.

* * *
What Costa doesn’t discuss is the Republican leadership’s incentives, which is the final, poetic wrinkle in all of this. McConnell and Boehner, in addition to understanding how badly the Tea Partiers have hurt their party, have yet another reason to sue for peace. McConnell is facing a Tea Party primary challenge in his re-election campaign. Boehner has been repeatedly embarrassed by the Tea Partiers in his caucus, who have actively sabotaged his leadership (egged on/manipulated by Texas Senator Ted Cruz). Both men know their side has lost. Both men also know their party’s fanatics are to blame. Do you think they don’t want to see the Tea Party humiliated before all is said and done? Do you think they might want to see the Tea Partiers stuck with all the blame?

[gopiscrap]

1. God I hope so

[regnaD kciN]

2. I'll take this…

…as long as "replac(ing) the sequester with something more appealing" doesn't mean "Chained C.P.I."

[apnu]

3. But Ted Cruz is a tea bagger.

I'm sure Boehner wants to see the tea baggers taking the blame. But Cruz does not. If the tea baggers lose power, he's done when his term is over. Texas won't stand for a Senator who's a pariah in his own party. And he will be if the nation punishes the tea baggers. One thing conservatives love to do is assign blame away from themselves. Rank and file Republicans will fall over themselves blaming every tea bagger they can find and Cruz is the biggest one right now.

So Ted Cruz certainly doesn't want to see the tea baggers humiliated and stuck with the blame. Boehner and the establishment do. Cantor, for his part, will prostitute himself to which ever group looks like a winner.

[Cosmocat]

5. he will be fine

He is not even a year into a 6 year term.

Unless this goes to its very worst ending, we will get past it and A LOT will go on between now and then.

Early odds are he will be in the position to run for reelection on being the guy who will fight to take down Hillary - a sure winner in his state.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

4. The thing about Senators...

is that they don't have safe districts. Some areas of the state are bat-sh!t crazy, but others are comparatively sane. And while some states (like Texas) are red, many states (like Texas) and getting more purple by the day. There are few places outside of Mississippi where an extremist agenda can find a friendly reception.