2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP Poll: Sink leading Jolly in FL special election. Poised to take down this TeaPublican.
Released just one hour ago. (See link below.)
Sink is up 48% to 45% with the Libertarian polling 6%. Sink is beating him in early voting and is CRUSHING him with the Indies. And that Indy vote is what is scaring he crap out of the TeaPubs because it is a BAD sign for them in their gubernatorial race.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/ppp-poll-alex-sink-48-david-jolly45-lucas-overby-6/2169464
MindMover
(5,016 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Sarah Ibarruri
(21,043 posts)MindMover
(5,016 posts)SICK AND TIRED OF THERE STUPID GAMES ....
Sarah Ibarruri
(21,043 posts)regardless of who it is. Like you, I am so sick and tired of it.
Orlandodem
(1,115 posts)the Republican vote.
Conversely we have to GOTV for Sink!!!!
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Because if its a poll I wouldn't breakout the champaign just yet
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)the other polls and indications. This needs to be posted everywhere to put that "We've lost it." feeling in the guts of the TeaPubs.
marew
(1,588 posts)And I sent in my ballot by mail probably 10 days ago. For Sink, of course!
packman
(16,296 posts)Florida's 13th District - just one county. Can't wait for the big one.
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)I really hope that Sink wins this race
mikekohr
(2,312 posts)Sancho
(9,070 posts)Sink has a much better ground game - people walking door to door, phone calls, emails.
I've been approached a bunch of time by Sink folks, and not once for Jolly (and I'm in a repub neighborhood).
I really hope we win this one!!!
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)until you kill the embers and place your hand on the ashes...
In other words...no let up till the GOP LOSES!
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)never in doubt
TroyD
(4,551 posts)I think the polls are closing now.
Will it be on the Florida elections site?
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)After losing such a heartbreakingly close race in 2010 for Florida Governor, it would be nice redemption for Alex Sink to win tonight!
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)With somewhat pathetic excuses.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Also there was a late surge of Republican absentee ballots.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)I don't trust those Republicans absentee ballots. So before we crucify Alex Sink for not winning as the polls have shown, perhaps we need to review that deluge of Republican absentee ballots first.
CVN-68
(97 posts)Last edited Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:00 AM - Edit history (1)
Maybe it really is just a case of Dem voters not going to the polls to vote.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)But studies have shown that there is a LOT of voter fraud in absentee ballots:
To believe that it's just a case of lazy Democratic voters is to dismiss the real underlying problem that's effectively killing our democratic process - and at the same time, buy into the Democratic Party enemies' narrative to keep them and their tactics obscure until it's too late.
CVN-68
(97 posts)but, so far, no one else has claimed it either, so that would lead one to believe that there are no indications of any voter fraud, yet.
In this case, it would appear to be a simple case of just not enough Dems going to vote.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)But I'm not convinced. Given the Republican penchant for cheating and lying to win power where they can't, and given that the PPP polls had Alex Sink ahead of her Republican/Teabagger opponent, her loss doesn't add up. And I won't give Republicans the benefit of the doubt in this.
Remember, there was a time when it was impossible for anyone to believe that a presidential candidate can steal a nationwide election and be crowned president. GW Bush proved that it wasn't only possible, but it can be done twice. But at that time, no corporate media reported it that way. The narrative, instead, was that Al Gore and John Kerry and their respective campaigns left Democrats and Liberals "nonplussed" so that they didn't want to come out and vote, just as their narrative is now with Alex Sink although she ran a good and tough campaign and GOTV drive.
Now, years after GWBush's "wins", we know the truth - he and the plutocrats who support him had stolen our voices. Our democracy is being ripped to shreds while we keep swallowing the "Democrat didn't run a good campaign" narrative and the "there's no widespread corruption in our electoral process" myth.
CVN-68
(97 posts)but until there's some evidence of voter fraud, I'm going to go with that it's a turnout issue.
"Maybe it really is just a case of Dem voters not going to the polls to vote."
Yep, that's exactly what it is. 11-2-10 all over again. WTF do we need to do to make every member of our voting base understand that it isn't just presidential elections that are important!?!
flpoljunkie
(26,184 posts)Very interesting.
CVN-68
(97 posts)Nothing interesting about it.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Chestrockwell
(17 posts)It's the voters. 37% what a joke!!!!
Excelsyor
(57 posts)Who is the judge of how many voters were expected to show up? Is 37% too low compared to expectations? Says who?
PPP has blown many, many House elections.
Response to RBInMaine (Original post)
flamingdem This message was self-deleted by its author.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Last edited Fri Mar 14, 2014, 06:51 AM - Edit history (2)
But, what happened is that on election day, more reliable Pukes came out than Dems. This is partly the fault of Dem and rank and filers who need dynamite lit under their asses to get them off the couch to vote, and partly the fault of the Dem party in FL who recruited a dull candidate who ran an uninspiring campaign, so too many of the base were not excited and they did not mobilize them well enough to get to get them polls. The FL Dem party rather stinks, all in all.
Excelsyor
(57 posts)?
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)here.
Excelsyor
(57 posts)Let me help you out: It is not true that all polls predicted a victory by Sink.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-florida-house-13th-district-special-election#!
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)the average of polls and trend lines. BOTH had Sink slightly ahead. Most pundits also gave Sink the slight edge in this. The R's were bracing for the possibility of a loss of this seat. I stand by what I say. Do more research if you have to.
Also, to be fair I should have said "most" polls and not "all," as I corrected in my other reply to you and in my first reply above saying "all." (Again, I don't count the partisan R polls in that.)
The problem was a Dem strategy that relied on a rather lackluster candidate from outside the district, an overly centrist approach in a very base-driven special election with traditionally low turnout, the lack of hammering on a few hot button issues to rally base voters, and a failure to micro target and turnout D voters who normally only vote in presidential cycles. In the end, it was the same old story of more friendly R voters showing up on election day than D voters in an area where R's have more registered voters and a traditional edge in non presidential elections. Simple as that.
Why did PPP get it wrong in the end? Because while PPP is normally very accurate, special election turnout remains hard to predict with extreme precision even with sophisticated polling methods, and, in the endgame, more R friendly voters turned out than D friendly voters. What I think this all shows us, and what the FL Dem party better take away, is that this was a winnable race had they not made the mistakes stated above. Had Sink won, it would have been by a small margin, so the polling was all still CLOSE just as the election results were.
Excelsyor
(57 posts)And even if you now pretend that Republican pollsters aren't pollsters, you are not excluding PPP, which got it wrong and is a Democratic pollster. And no, PPP is not normally very accurate in House elections. Its accuracy is from Presidential elections.
Have you ever seen analysis praising PPP's awesome House performance? No.
The most important thing is that you said all pollsters predicted a Sink win, and now you had to change your title, and you wouldn't have changed if I had not corrected you.
You are also pretending that a non-partisan pollster had Sink and Jolly tied up.
And this is for people who still think PPP rules. Experts such as Nate Cohn and Nate Silver have criticized PPP"s methodology. PPP is not a good pollster. Links:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed
There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster
Nate Silver vs. Public Policy Polling
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/
Here's your rule: If a Democratic pollster gets it right = awesome
If a Republican pollster gets it right = So what. They're Republican
If a non-partisan pollster says it's a tie = pretend the non-partisan pollster doesn't exist.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)If you must nitpick away to win a silly argument, go ahead. Often people in the moment rhetorically write or say "all" when they mean "most" or "largely" or "the bulk of" or whatever. OK, you win the rhetorical nitpick argument. Yes, fine, in my haste I confess I said "all" meaning "most" so yes, I did correct my little rhetorical error, as I TOLD you I did. (I did know there were some polls leaning it to Jolly.) And, as I clearly indicate, I was also considering the analyses from the pundits who were giving it to Sink.
Nate Silver isn't perfect either. PPP generally has a good reputation. Special elections are tough to predict. Believe what you want. Nitpick away.
You have no explanation for the very trend lines and probability prediction that YOU cited giving the edge to Sink. Other analyses in the days before the election were leaning it toward Sink. You can research those too. Just Google a little more and nitpick those out as well.
Regardless of the nitpicking and hair splitting over the precision of the predictions, this was a winnable race. Sink, her team, and the FL Dems failed to bring her across the line because of campaign errors. Maybe we can agree on that.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)either way Im through with polls.. see: President Romney.
Imajika
(4,072 posts)Not sure I get your point about dismissing polls.
The polls were pretty accurate in predicting an Obama victory over Romney. Only a couple outliers had Mitt winning, and those were overhyped by Fox in their desperation to believe they could take Obama down.
Anyone watching the 2012 race with a non biased perspective knew the President would be re-elected. The only bump in the road for Obama was the first debate.
Reputable polling firms are pretty accurate, especially when using something like the RCP average. Primaries and special elections are tougher to predict, but PPP got pretty close. One Republican polling firm actually had it right, but PPP is a very good polling outfit and got the final numbers pretty close.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)UCmeNdc
(9,600 posts)No GOTV No win.......
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)don't normally vote in off cycle elections from the get go. The great lessons here are: recruit exciting candidates, key in on some hot button issues that will excite the base, get loud with those issues, and, from the start, go after your voters who don't normally show up in off cycle elections like special elections.