2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumKeep the Senate '14
Okay, we know we have an uphill battle to keep the Senate for two big reasons:
1) Seven (7) Democratic-held seats are in red states which Romney carried in 2012 (and which McCain carried all but one back in 2008)
2) Democratic voters are notorious for their apathy in midterm elections.
Two other reasons are Obama's low approval ratings and the Koch Bro's super-pacs pouring billions of dollars into Republican coffers, which we cannot possibly match. However, there is one thing that can beat money in politics, and that is VOTING.
Which leads us to the need to embrace a "lowest-hanging fruit" strategy as we did in 2010 which, consequently, helped us keep the Senate. First off, the eleven (11) states where Democratic seats are in danger of changing hands are as follows (the most likely to flip to "R" are listed first):
South Dakota
West Virginia
Montana
Arkansas
Alaska
North Carolina
Louisiana
Michigan
Iowa
Colorado
New Hampshire
The four states at the top of the list--ND, WV, MT, AR--are extremely-conservative states and will likely be picked up by the Republicans (barring a candidate screwing up by letting something stupid slip out of his mouth, i.e.--Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock).
The four states at the bottom of the list--NH, CO, IA, MI--are blue states where we absolutely must focus our GOTV efforts. We can only lose these seats if we let the opposition beat us. In Michigan, for example, we need to do everything possible to get voters in Detroit to the polls on Nov. 4.
As for the three (3) in the middle--AK, NC, LA--well, these are anyone's guess. Polls are showing neck-and-neck races in each of these states, and don't be surprised if the inevitable December runoff in Louisiana will determine who controls the Senate in January (such a scenario may actually help motivate our voting base in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, to get out and vote).
North Carolina will be very tough, but it is possible provided we get as many Democrats out to vote as possible and succeed in painting the Republican candidate as a tea-bagging fanatic. As for Alaska, I don't know what to make of it. The politics of that state is very foreign to me. I remember back in '08 calling the Begich campaign offering to do some phone banking for him from my home, but they told me that Alaska politics is such that it looks bad if outsiders to get involved in their campaign efforts, so unless you wish to travel to Alaska to help with the campaign locally, there's not much else you can do).
There are only two Republican seats we have a slim chance of picking up this year--Kentucky and Georgia. However, given the heavily rural populations in both these southern states, winning either of them would be a major accomplishment.
So there we have it. This order wouldn't be as difficult had we not allowed the Rethugs to win the Senate seats in PA, WI, and IL back in 2010 (we'd have a 58-42 majority right now instead of 55-45), but unfortunately we did and we've got a tougher job now as a result. Focus our resources primarily on the bottom seven states on the list above: NH, CO, IA, MI, LA, NC, and AK and make sure that our get-out-the-vote machine is in place and well-polished in each and every one of those states. Winning there will give the Democrats a 51-49 Senate majority for the last two years of Obama's presidency. Then, in 2016, we will need to focus not only on keeping the White House, but also capturing those three (3) blue-state Senate seats we never should have lost in 2010. With turnout being inevitably higher due to the presidential election, that fruit should be ripe for the picking.
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Loudly
(2,436 posts)would campaign on Medicare for All.
No Republican is going to do it.
Which leaves the issue completely available for Democrats to exploit.
Talk about low hanging fruit!
polichick
(37,152 posts)quadrature
(2,049 posts)black toe tag... LA and up the list
red ... Colo
yellow ... Mich, Iowa, Vir, Minn, NH
green ... everybody else
TomCADem
(17,387 posts)...regardless of how detached from reality and extreme Republicans are, a GOP sponsored press will push the idea that Democrats are on the defensive.
CBHagman
(16,986 posts)And thanks for posting this.
rtracey
(2,062 posts)I say let the right take control of it all...then follow these steps....filibuster all right wing legislation, or allow it too pass to the president and let him veto, back for 2/3 majority override...will not get it, dead end for years.....
yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)We have three million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania and the teaparty beats us like a rented mule, it don't make sense?
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Too many African-Americans and other Democratic-leaning voters stayed home on Nov. 2, 2010.