Dem Pollster Predicts 'Huge Turnout Disadvantage' In 2014 (GWU Poll: GOP Leads 64-57%)

[big_dog]

A leading Democratic pollster predicted a "sobering" turnout disadvantage for her party in this year's midterm elections and called on Democrats to articulate "a bigger economic agenda" this fall.

"There is a huge turnout disadvantage and challenge," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said Tuesday at a breakfast with reporters. "There is always a challenge in turnout in an off year, but it's really dramatic this time." Lake was speaking a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. Lake and Republican pollster Ed Goeas revealed results of a new George Washington University poll that showed GOP voter intensity in 2014 outpacing Democratic intensity by seven points.

The poll indicated that 64% of Republicans say they are "extremely likely" to vote in November's midterms, compared with 57% of Democrats.

"I think we saw it play out in the Florida special," Lake said, referring to the GOP's special election victory earlier this month in Florida's 13th Congressional district. She called the Republican turnout machine in that race "darn effective," and said Democrats should not underestimate the GOP's get-out-the-vote operation this year. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/25/democratic-pollster-predicts-huge-turnout-disadvantage-in-2014/?hpt=hp_t3

[lostincalifornia]

1. B.S. Florida was not a bell weather. It was a district that was over 30 some years republican,

with two flawed candidates. Sure the repuke was worse, but the Democratic candidate's flaws did not help the turnout

[big_dog]

4. agreed on makeup of FL--13 BUT current strategy is not working... polling question from the article

The survey showed that most Americans have never heard of the Koch brothers, the billionaire businessmen behind a constellation of well-funded conservative groups gunning to put Congress in GOP control. Democrats, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have sought to raise the Kochs' profile in recent weeks, hoping to tie Republicans to shadowy corporate interests.

"Trying to make the Koch brothers into red meat is going to be about as effective as what we tried to do for several cycles with George Soros," Goeas said. "Most people don’t know who they are.

[lostincalifornia]

8. Turnout is always important though, and that is where the party needs to focus

[frylock]

10. the party needs to give the people something to vote for..

folks are getting tired of voting against republicans.

[lostincalifornia]

14. Yeah that would be nice. How about not being for women's rights to start

and healthcare for all

[1StrongBlackMan]

30. More accurately ...

DUers are tired of voting against republicans. The American electorate has, and will continue to, vote for the "lesser of the evils" (though I reject to frame for the "better of the alternatives&quot .

Further, the academic research indicates that people a far more moved to act to prevent a loss than to achieve a gain. That is why, "They're coming for your guns/religion/money" gets better results than, "I will raise the minimum wage/extend UC/Rise taxes on the rich."

[Springslips]

39. On the other hand...

Nothing reenergizes folks passion for voting against republican than having the republicans run government. So let's not vote for them in the first place.

[samsingh]

2. dem supporters are stupid not to turn out

[polichick]

3. Solution: Dance with them that brung you!

[msongs]

5. if the choice is republican or republican-lite, where's the motivation to vote? nt

[Arkana]

7. Because if you don't vote, you're effectively helping the assholes

who want to turn this country into a Christian Iran?

I don't like first-past-the-post either. Until it changes, though, this is how it is. Get the people who agree with you on more things into office, then in the next cycle you can get people who agree with you on even more things into office.

[SunSeeker]

20. Exactly. Thank you. nt

[Maedhros]

35. Why does that absolve the Democratic Party of its responsibility to earn votes?

It does no good to blame the apathetic for not showing up; by definition they don't care. The Democrats' best strategy would be to find something that makes them care.

[BlindTiresias]

43. Ha

And how long have Dems been saying this?

[jenmito]

9. "Republican-lite"? Let's see...

one party wants to kill the minimum wage, the other wants to raise it. One party wants to repeal the ACA, the other wants to keep it. One party wants to impeach Obama, the other doesn't. One party wants to get rid of all Planned Parenthood centers, the other wants to keep them. One party wants to suppress voter rights, the other wants to expand them. One party wants to appoint ultra-conservative judges, the other wants to appoint liberal judges. One party wants to start wars whenever possible, the other wants to use diplomacy. One party wants to outlaw abortion AND birth control, the other wants to keep abortion safe and legal and birth control available and covered by insurance. One party wants to drill for oil anywhere and everywhere, the other believes in global warming and wants to use other forms of power. I'm sure I'm missing many differences, but if you still think Rs and Ds are "Republicans and Republican-lite," you're way off.

[frylock]

12. TPP? KLX?

republican-lite.

[jenmito]

15. The pipeline hasn't even been approved so far-and everything I named isn't enough

reason to vote for DEMS. and to fear a Repub. majority???

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. But ... But ... But ...

BENGAZI!!!

That is what DU is becoming ... supporters of Democratic point to 20 distinctions between Democrats and Republicans and some will throw up a single policy position that they disagree with and that's that, "I ain't gonna vote."

However do they get along in real life, where they routinely have to make choices among imperfect options?

[Maedhros]

36. Apparently not.

Justified or not, the Democratic Party has an image problem with voters. It's up to the Party to correct that problem. I suggest campaigning strongly on Democratic principles.

Shaming the electorate will not work.

[frylock]

11. there isn't motivation, and using threats like the post drectly below yours has grown quite tiresome

as I said upthread, give people something to vote for. voting against republicans has worn thin.

[BlueDemKev]

16. If you STILL think there's no significant difference...

...between the two parties, there's no point in trying to convince you otherwise. Don't complain when the tea party screws you to hell.

[1StrongBlackMan]

33. +1

[Maedhros]

37. What if we just think that Democratic strategy just sucks, and we want them to work harder

and come up with a better strategy?

[RBInMaine]

18. Yawn. That line is so beaten to death. Please, though who think like that need to grow up.

[1StrongBlackMan]

31. Republican is worse than republican-lite ...

simple concept, isn't it?

[bemildred]

38. It makes them nervous when we all vote. Do it for that reason. nt

[Arkana]

6. 7% gap? That's not insurmountable. Far less than I expected.

[genwah]

13. It's not the overall 7%, it's knowing which states/districts are going to

wind up short of what we need. Every campaign knows how many votes they want, but will there bee boots on the ground to GOTV where we need it?

[1StrongBlackMan]

34. True ...

especially when you consider most districts, including the gerrymandered districts, have voter participation rates of less than 60% ... that means upward of 40% of the eligible voters don't get to the polls.

[blkmusclmachine]

17. Not so sure that our DC DEMS actually care about keeping the Senate in the November elections ..

[rtracey]

21. I believe

I believe you may be correct. If right takes over House and Senate, we are just going to have 2 years of complete stalemate, along with Obama becomes a walking veto stamp. 2/3 majority needed to override vetos, you may just see a little more cooperation, not completely sure, but... there is NO WAY the GOP is going to be able to stop ACA, or cut measures, without the dems help. If the president decides to swing into the rights path and let things happen with and for them, then we are in for a big problem in 2016, because if the GOP get things done, and the president supports the things they are doing.....2016 may be a complete loss...

[brooklynite]

40. Fortunately, you're not involved in campaign planning for them.

I meet with DSCC and its candidates regularly. They are DESPERATE to hold on to the Senate, as are many of their big funders (including me).

But what does your expertise tell you they should be doing that they're not?

[RBInMaine]

19. Polls don't mean diddly shit at this stage. And as to FL-13...

It was very close, with all the money still only 37% turned out in total so the GOPer didn't fair much better, but I will agree that the Dem was a weak candidate, and they did not go after the base hard enough in a base special election. They needed to get the Obama voters back, and they didn't go after them well enough. They played to the middle in a base driven race.

YES, we NEED STRONG TURNOUT. But please, can we please have a campaign first. Polls this far out don't mean shit.

[Dawson Leery]

25. +1

[bigdarryl]

22. Even though shes a democrat pollster her polling is horrible

[yellowcanine]

24. Little early to panic over turnout expectations. Special elections lousy predictors also.

Democrats are working in a number of states to get minimum wage referendums on the ballot. It this is successful on a wide scale it could make a difference in turnout in a number of Senate races and swing congressional districts.

[hrmjustin]

26. Her polls suck! why post this?

[MFM008]

28. exactly

thank you.

[hrmjustin]

29. Your welcome.

I hate when this downer stuff is posted in an election year.

[riqster]

27. Turnout is ALWAYS important. If we don't vote, we lose.

[brooklynite]

41. Okay - I'm launching RESKEWED POLLING...

Every time we hear a poll result we don't like, we'll be able to change the numbers around. Worked great for the Republicans...

[whistler162]

44. Who?