The Path to the Democrats Holding the Senate

[tgards79]

Win New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska and Kansas.
Lose Iowa and Colorado.
That makes it 49-49.
Then fight like hell to win one runoff, Louisiana or Georgia.
See this:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html

[Skink]

1. Makes sense

But why not make then own it?
Go on record as stupid.

[femmocrat]

2. Sounds good to me.

I think it will be NH, NC, and KS tomorrow. Alaska to follow.
Then LA in the runoffs. Landrieu has won those tight ones before.

GA -- I hope Nunn can win the runoff, but it's uphill.
If Braley is really tied with Ernst, maybe... hopefully... IA. Too bad Harkin took the focus off Braley at the end. He's probably kicking himself today. I cannot believe that Iowans would give Harkin's seat to that awful woman.

CO would be the cherry on the sundae!

[mwooldri]

3. What about Kentucky?

Is the turtle expected to live on?

[tgards79]

4. Yes...

...at this point Grimes has no chance, unfortunately.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html

[demwing]

6. There's always a chance

Even if the odds are a million to one against you, you still have that 1 chance....

[tgards79]

10. Her odds are better than that!

Probably about 10%...

[demwing]

5. Scratch Kansas, there's no DEM there

Add Iowa and Colorado back in and you're at 50.

The run offs are then icing, and Kansas is the cherry on top

[tgards79]

7. Orman will caucus....

...with the Dems if they are the majority. But will he if it takes him to BE the majority.

Iowa and Colorado are still plausible, particularly Colorado, if the polls have truly been under representing Hispanics. Iowa, only if the good citizens wake up to the craziness of Joni Ernst.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html

[demwing]

8. Excellent question

Orman bills himself as someone who is socially liberal, fiscally conservative, and who thinks the Republican Party became too extreme. He's a Blue Dog Dem running in a state where its easier to say you're an Independent.

If he is faced with a situation where the Republicans have 50 seats and the Dems have 49, there's no way I see him tipping the balance. In fact, a split Senate is exactly what he might want.

Additionally, every savvy politician knows that the Dems are in a far superior position 2 years down the road, and I doubt Orman would burn that bridge before he crosses it.

He'll caucus with the Dems if it creates a tie. I'm 95% positive,

[tgards79]

9. Really good thought process...

I had not thought of the 2016 angle. Dead right!