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RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 07:17 AM Nov 2014

My analysis of this very unfortunate election:

First, there is historical precedent. The 6th year midterm for the president in office is usually a good year for the opposition. Tough environment.

That said, here are/were the other problems:

* Too many Dems/Progressives refusing to vote in non-presidential cycles. Apathy is a loser, and it happened yet again. There is little excuse for it. I don't want to hear about grown adults merely needing to be "excited" by others. Get off the couch and go to the polls or don't ever bitch. If what the TeaPublicans do doesn't do it for you then for shame.

* The President just doesn't forcefully and consistently tout his accomplishments and a strong popular and populist agenda while just as forcefully hammering the opposition. He campaigns transformationally but then leads transactionally, low key and trying to "work with" the opposition instead of staking out strong positions and mobilizing the American people to support them. He needs to lead the way he campaigns. TAKE A LOOK AT HOW ELIZABETH WARREN AND BERNIE SANDERS DO IT. The TeaPubs have no interest in "working with" him. They never have. He has made a HUGE miscalculation in thinking he ever could.

* The DNC is just in SUCKY shape. They need to get rid of Wasserman-Schultz, get back the fifty state strategy, and FOCUS THE MESSAGE. In this election, THEY NEVER THEMED THE ELECTION. "Stand alone" is no strategy, it is no message, it is no theme.
The theme should have revolved around a strong uniting popular and populist economic message, strongly touting Democratic accomplishments, and they should have gone after the Republicans as "THE DO-NOTHING PARTY OF OBSTRUCTION" and they should have said it a thousand times. There was NO UNITED DEMOCRATIC THEME OR MESSAGE FOR THIS ELECTION WHEN THEY HAD TONS OF AMMUNITION. You don't win elections by running away from your own party leaders and your own party's accomplishments. You don't win elections by being disjointed and fractured instead of strongly united.

* MONEY ! Citizens United is a killer. It is allowing a vast money disadvantage. Americans really don't like this, and we need to mobilize against it.

* CORPORATE MEDIA /TALK RADIO ! They meme for the corporate Republicans all the time. AND, Dems/Progressives won't invest in a strong counter media.

* ISIS and Ebola have stoked fear, and there is perception that Obama's responses have been weak on these.


THE GOOD NEWS:

* On issue after issue from the minimum wage, to women's issues, to the problem of income inequality, to marriage equality, to investing in roads and bridges and education and heathcare, etc. etc. we WIN. Plain and simple. It is just a matter of the RIGHT MESSAGING and effort to mobilize the people on these issues.

* Demographics are on our side. The population is becoming more diverse and more progressive socially and on a host of economic issues.

* Politics happens in waves and shifts. There is plenty of time to re-group for the next cycle, re-focus, and prepare for the upcoming presidential year.

* Obama and Dems can now be very forceful in their positions as the TeaPublicans think that they now have a great right wing mandate. As they attempt to drive their right wing agenda down our throats, if the Dems are smart they will unite and demonstrate how wrong the TeaPubs are on the issues, and Obama needs to get his veto pen ready and be ready to use it forcefully and explain forcefully why he is using it. Dems needs to unite with him strongly when he uses it. WILL HE/THEY DO THIS ???

* Politics is about uniting, focusing, and messaging effectively. It didn't happen in this cycle. But we have done it before. We can again both during election seasons and out of them while governing.

* As Bill Maher says, don't be driven by unfavorable poll numbers. Take the reigns and go and CREATE good poll numbers for yourself. PUSH your accomplishments, PUSH your principles, PUSH your agenda, and convince people you are right. THAT is LEADERSHIP. THAT excites people. Just look at what has been done with the marriage equality issue. That movement didn't wait around for poll numbers to move their way, THEY WENT AFTER IT AND MOVED THE NEEDLE THEMSELVES WITH GOOD MESSAGING AND HARD WORK. We know how to do this. Take your positions strongly and passionately and go convince people you are right.




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a kennedy

(29,661 posts)
3. Dems needs to unite with him strongly when he uses it. WILL HE/THEY DO THIS ???
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 07:53 AM
Nov 2014

This is the statement of the of all statements...... 6 years in and Dems have NEVER united with POTUS. This will be like herding cats as that saying goes. But, as you also say it can be done, but sheesh. I'm still just trying to wrap my head around the sh*t storm that just happened.

angrychair

(8,699 posts)
4. How do you make it better?
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 08:29 AM
Nov 2014

Promoting, voting and holding Democratic state legislatures.
Promoting, voting and holding Democratic Governors.
Promoting, voting, and holding Democratic state and local office holders at every level.

Without doing what I have said will just get you more of the same.

If you don't control voting laws and Congressional district lines, you don't control anything.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
5. Let's pay some more respect to geography, as well as other big-picture factors.
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 09:47 AM
Nov 2014

As Charlie Cook of the Cook Report pointed out, noted the other night by Lawrence O'Donnell ("things that I did not know&quot , much of the left's vote is "wasted." That's because a very large portion of the left is concentrated in cities, where they take their districts by huge margins, while the right is more dispersed and typically takes their districts by narrower margins. As Cook said, every vote over the one needed to win is wasted. No chicanery involved, and no incompetence. Geography.

Cook estimates that because of a combination of the above and because of extensive Republican gerrymandering, Democrats have to get 6.8% MORE votes than the GOP just to win 51% of the House.

(Some chicanery and incompetence, of course, were involved in the 2010 TP sweep, but above all the GOP redistricting disaster resulted from the cosmic confluence of 2 big, beyond-control factors, the 2010 census with a temporary upsurge in offices held by the hard right.)

And, of course, it just happens that a majority of big seats in play happen to be in red states.

Another big demographic factor: In midterm elections, Cook reported, the category of over-45 voters goes UP 8-10% as part of the overall vote. In the 1950s and 60s this benefited the left as most older people, who'd lived through the Great Depression, the great wars, the New Deal, voted Democrat. These days, that group more likely to long for the lost great days of Ronald Reagan (the last days of New Deal prosperity, but they don't know that).

Then there's personality -- a giant one! As we know, in midterm elections 2-3% more Republicans vote than Democrats. The blame for this one's squarely on OUR shoulders, not the right and not Obama or the media, because it's rooted in our very psyche. We aren't driven to the polls in higher numbers by unrealistic anxiety and insecurity, strongly distorted perspectives on the world and its problems, a dark view of human nature, unjustified anger, and severe intolerance -- All characteristic of strong conservatives. And, we are also often unrealistically complaisant, less personally organized, and less disciplined (it's not only the inadequacies of conservative voters that brought them these wins, after all).

If WE were all that our country needs its left to be in these troubled times of great change, the almost $4 billion spent by both sides to reach voters would have brought the left out to vote in incredibly high numbers. Really, the very scary and offensive right-wing messages should have been enough all by themselves. The DCCC could have just sat back and watched. If.

Or as Charlie Cook put it, "it's a map that's stacked against Democrats, a political environment that's lousy, and turnout dynamics..." "It's not a matter of whether Democrats win or lose, it's going to be is it bad, real bad, really really bad, or extra crispy."

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)
10. Did Charlie Cook have any solutions to the Dems' dilemma?
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 03:59 PM
Nov 2014

It seems there isn't much they can do in regards to geography and psyche. So this cycle looks to continue indefinitely. We win in we turn out the vote, which we can't, unless it's a presidential year?

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
12. Sorry, he didn't offer any. It last took the Great Depression to force people to big solutions. On
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 07:22 PM
Nov 2014

the "plus" side, we have no shortage of grave, neglected problems that will only get more desperate as that neglect continues.

FWIW, another plus that occurs is that the solutions to desperate economic problems that "the greatest generation" implemented (and ours trashed) were overall a great success. They are long proven, not experimental. The good old days.

mbee

(1,140 posts)
6. So true we took things for granted and look what happened!
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 11:43 AM
Nov 2014

Maryland put Anthony Brown up and from the moment I listened to his message I thought he was a weak candidate. When Hogan brought up the 41 taxes in Maryland there was no explanation from Brown just attacks on Hogan. I would have taken that as an opportunity to show what a state with no taxes looks like. A relative of mine vacationed recently a Kiwah Island In SC and while he thought it was an amazing vacation spot he said the roads getting to it were deplorable. So I'm not sure what taxes are charged in SC it is obvious they don't fix their roads. I'm not in favor of un-necessary taxes, but Maryland has safety nets such as lower property taxes for lower income households and I personally know a Republican family that takes advantage of it. You have to remind people how their taxes are being spent.

 

Cal33

(7,018 posts)
7. Very well put. To what you have said I would also add that Reid and Pelosi should be replaced by
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 11:53 AM
Nov 2014

Democratic politicians who have more spine.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
8. Obama couldn't afford to be weak on ISIS and Ebola
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 03:00 PM
Nov 2014

Presidential approval rating is everything in a midterm. Stuff like 50 State Strategy is just noise. Feel good noise, but noise.

Obama was already in trouble prior to ISIS and Ebola. Once he came across as hesitant and weak in those areas, the election results were cemented. I haven't been posting here but day to day I deal with many apolitical types. It's a huge advantage in terms of gauging the terrain. I had many friends who never mention politics suddenly get concerned when those issues peaked, and express disappointment with Obama. If they were saying it, it was attaching everywhere.

2008 was an extremely rare opportunity because Bush was so unpopular post-Katrina that anyone we nominated in 2008 would coast. At stake was how we would define the Democratic brand going forward. I was concerned that Obama had too much Jimmy Carter in him. I posted that here several times. Carter set back our image for nearly a generation. Obama isn't considered that weak but he will be propped as an example to avoid. Republicans won't be shy to tag subsequent Democratic nominees as similar to Obama. IMO, a strong woman was a superior choice. Hillary may have been hated by the conservative base but I can almost guarantee she would have come across as stronger and more decisive the past 6 years, impressing the middle roaders. Re-election was a certainty. An incumbent with his/her party in power only one term is the most favorable situational spot in American politics. Now Hillary -- assuming it's her -- faces an exponentially more difficult cycle in 2016 in an open race coming off a Democratic president with a slumping approval rating and weak reputation. I hope Obama can find a way to restore approval but the methods don't appear obvious.

steve2470

(37,457 posts)
13. "Too many Dems/Progressives refusing to vote in non-presidential cycles" BAM, nailed it
Wed Nov 5, 2014, 07:31 PM
Nov 2014

Ok, I concede the point that ideally speaking, we should have strong Democratic candidates who stand behind President Obama and the progressive agenda.

However, staying home = VOTING FOR THE REPUBLICAN. Would you rather have a weak Democrat, or a full-fledged Republican ? Democratic turnout in Florida was sub-optimal, to put it politely.

Granted, Charlie Crist in my state of Florida was not the ideal candidate, and did not run the very best possible campaign. Fair points. He was a Republican, and is now a Democrat. Arguably, he can be called Republican-lite.

However, he's NOT RICK FREAKING SCOTT, who is Teabagger-extraordinaire criminal alien man.

tl,dr: Go freaking vote for the Democratic Party. It sure as fuck beats staying home and letting the fascist Republicans win. After the election is over, then we can work on moving the party leftward and putting up stronger candidates.

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