The missing story of the 2014 election

[KamaAina]

http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic....

This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary. Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do the math.

[Dawson Leery]

1. k/r

[former9thward]

2. Well, that is your map.

There were a lot of R governors elected in states you have as blue or undecided.

[KamaAina]

3. From the article:

- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but their success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot. None of these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the ACA. Rauner stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but Democrats in Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly, similar to other northern states, without losing a single seat.

[kairos12]

4. Rethug strategy is SCOTUS backed floods of dark money and disenfranchisement of

voters. With that strategy they could win with Bozo running. Or worse, Ted Cruz.

[blkmusclmachine]

5. ^This.^

[regnaD kciN]

8. The point of the article is that, even with all those things running in the GOP's favor...

...and doing so especially in the circumstances of this past election (with historically-low turnout, especially for those under 30, a favorable set of battleground states, etc.), the results still wouldn't have given them enough to have a realistic shot at the White House -- and their chances of that, or even holding control of the Senate, are going to be much, much worse, given what we know about the demographics of presidential-year as opposed to mid-term elections.

[kairos12]

10. Completely understood the article. The rethugs also know what the article says. They

know now they can only win the White House is by the using two aforementioned strategies. In other words, steal it. They have two years to fine tune those tactics and be ready for 2016. I say watch for any decisions reaching SCOTUS they increase the flow of dark money and erode the Voting Rights Act, especially in battleground states like Ohio and Florida. That is why it was so bad for the Dems to lose Florida again to con man Scott and Ohio to that other Teahaddist idiot. I agree with the author, all the trends are in our favor. The rethugs know it too. They are not above stealing elections and will try it again. Arbusto Shrub taught us that, and in Florida of all places.

Have a good night.

[Wounded Bear]

6. Well...

The Repubs have done a pretty good job fucking things up without holding the White House, so I'm not sure if that would be a negative for them.

[world wide wally]

7. We can only hope that your analysis is right. But I'd be afraid to bet on it right now.

[regnaD kciN]

9. I wouldn't...

Despite the trumpetings of Faux and the Conservative Media Cartel, this so-called "Republican wave" was underwhelming compared to 2010. Remember what happened two years after that?

[Scuba]

11. This is why we have so many Republicans pretending they are Democrats.

If someone holding traditional Republican policy positions wins the Democratic primary, then the White House, can we truly say we have a Democrat in the White House?

[Cosmocat]

12. absolute and unmitigated bullshit

I don't think people get the gravity of the situation we are facing right now, here in the United States in particular.

I have been politically aware since the early 90s, and politically active since Bush II got elected.

During the last 15 years, people have WANTED to believe, "THE REPUBLICANS ARE IN THEIR LAST THROES!"

But, the simple reality is that they are in a BETTER position now than in the early 90s when they took the turn to being deranged lunatics.

As of the first Tuesday of this month, they have effectively taken near complete institutional control of this country.

They effectively control the Supreme Court, and will for decades at least.
The have a strong majority in the House of Representatives and will unless we get a major wave election in two years, which isn't looking like any kind of possibility.
They have control of the senate, and while they face a tougher go there in 16, they still have control and the democrats have to TAKE it back.
They control more state houses and senates and governorships.
They have extraordinarily locked in gerrymandering in key states such a VA, PA, and Michigan that gives them more congressional seats than they should have.
They have the media 100 percent in their corner.
The people of this country are fat (figuratively) and distracted, and very much prone to eagerly swallowing whatever bullshit they advance.
The democratic party is at an all time modern low - they have effectively killed the labor movement, which provided the energy and toughness to the democratic party. The democratic party is heartless and directionless.

But, they are losing?

Seriously?

The BEST case scenario is that some presidential candidate provides energy to the democratic party, keeps the oval office out of their deranged hand and brings enough senators along with him/her to get the senate back. But, sorry, that will be the high water mark and they do what they have effectively done two times now - After Bill Clinton was elected and after Barrack Obama was elected - throw a hissy fit of epic proportions, the country will capitulate and give them even MORE power.

[AverageJoe90]

13. This makes a lot of sense when you think about it.

And when even a moderate conservative is willing to openly admit that his party's in deep shit, that's definitely a good sign.

Although, unfortunately, I'm afraid voter suppression in particular will make it pretty damn tough to get more than maybe 300 EVs at this point, unless we manage to regain at least most, or all of the enthusiasm of the 2012 election, and/or the Republican does and/or says something really, really stupid.

But maybe we'll have luck back in our favor again.....maybe the GOP fucks up real bad even before the actual election season starts. They just don't have a shot without lots of election fraud. And with more and more folks slowly realizing just how dirty the modern GOP is.....well.....fill in the blank.