End of the GOP after a Sixth Political Party Realignment?

[LiberalElite]

http://inhomelandsecurity.com/end-of-the-gop-after-a-sixth-political-party-realignment/

"George Washington warned of the dangers of political parties in his 1796 farewell address, affirming that: “the common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party are sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to discourage and restrain it.” Washington was wary of political parties because he was witness to the formation of the first parties in 1796 and believed they were a divisive force in the newly-formed republic.

American political parties have evolved since the time of Washington, Hamilton, and Jefferson, in five distinct cycles, known as political party realignments. The causes of each realignment cycle vary, from changing demographics and economic downturns, to the rise of independent voters and a divided political electorate."



Don't get excited about the "end of the GOP" - the author posits that if it occurs, we'll be left with the Tea Party.

[DetlefK]

1. There is a GOP civil-war ahead.

Who calls the shots? Pragmatists or ideologues? (There is a german term for that: "fundies", from fundamentalist or "realos", from realpolitik.)

The republican party has nothing to show for, nothing positive to campaign on, no track-record of getting things done, of solving problems. The pragmatists realize that and fear the longterm-consequences when the electorate becomes alienated. The ideologues don't care: All they want is their doctrine imposed and the rest doesn't matter.

Politics, program and candidates aside, the image of a party is crucial: In the 2014-midterms the GOP came across as unified and strong, determined to go to work. The Democrats came across as incoherent weaklings.

But it cannot stay that way forever: The GOP has to KEEP that image that they are the party of getting shit done, all the while the Tea Party's strategy is to block everything and to get nothing done.

The GOP is busy-busy-busy, with commentaries, the outrage of the day, neverending inquiries into the many scandals of the Obama-administration... But once that illusion gets cracks, once the voters see that all the "work" and determination of the GOP has not produced any results, the GOP will be in deep trouble.

1. Nobody votes for losers.

2. Nobody votes for a party in disarray.

[Cosmocat]

4. I cannot possibly disagree with this enough

First, the republican party has been radicalized for over two decades now, and it has gotten EXPONENTIALLY more brazen and extreme over that time period.

They have almost literally done nothing during that time at the federal level outside of the first several years of Bush II, when they blew up the budget with their hair brained tax cuts and lied this country into Iraq.

DOING these things ended up with the only real political losses they have had during that time period - 06 and 08.

Outside of Bill Clinton and BHO winning a second term, they have pretty much won ever national election cycle outside of that.

They have a near mortal lock on the HOR, they now have the senate, they control the SC, they have power in more states ...

You just are NOT paying attention if you don't see that what they are learning from the American voters is this - they can be bombastic jackasses and almost literally NEVER be held accountable for it. In both 2010 and this last cycle they ran on nothing other than hatred and division and came away as the "winners."

You could not possibly be more wrong about their supposed downfall.

And, I will note this about your 1 and 2.

Right now, the Democrats are the "losers" and of the two the democratic party is BY FAR, and it is not even debatable, BY FAR in the most "disarray."

This is the bottom line.

While it is division, hatred and a mind boggling determination to work against their and the country's best interests, the Republicans DO have an agenda and sharp focus to achieving it. They are 1,000 percent determined and absolutely committed to doing ANYTHING to get what they want.

The Democratic party does not have the first idea WTF it stands for at this point in time, and absolutely NO heart, none, and no belly to even begin to fight.

Democrats have to get past this "the republicans time is coming" bullshit, cause it enables this mindset of just setting back and doing nothing.

The republicans are going NOWHERE and they are so in control right now it is chilling.

[RBInMaine]

13. The problem is "progressives" bitch and whine but REFUSE TO VOTE in midterms elections. That is how

what you have said happened. Sure, the party could have done more. But too many "progressives" want to be seduced, cajoled, begged, or whatever just to get off their lazy rear-ends to go and vote in midterms. The RePukes have no substance except backward assed nonsense and corporate trickle down, and they are aging and dying off plenty fast.

And Dems DO stand for something. They just need to SAY IT and STAND BY IT. With that I agree. But all the GOP had in this last cycle was "We aren't Obama." And of course the "progressives" sat home on their lazy asses. They need to grow the hell up, get off their asses, get the stupid ID cards if necessary, and go vote. If they can stand in Black Friday lines at Walmart for hours on end to buy cheap tv sets, they can damn well go and vote. Otherwise, quit the whining and bitching.

[Cosmocat]

15. And, that is ANOTHER reason the Rs are not going away

people can bitch about "negative" campaigning all they want, but time after the side that generates the most "anger" or "fear" get the most turn out.

This is what the Rs know and have done my entire adult life, the last three decades.

Ds MOSTLY turn out for presidentials, but outside of that the only non presidential election the Ds came out for was 06, which was only because of how truly pukable Bush II was.

[Cosmocat]

16. Side note - what exactly DOES the Democratic Party stand for?

In ITS words.

Keeping in mind, we both know it is bullshit, but from the top down (high level elected officials, party operatives, media shills, rank and file), EVERY republican knows what they "stand for."

Tax cuts (above all else)
Security
Patriotism
Values

That does the democratic party stand for NOW. Please reference something from the party itself, that also is reinforced by what Washington DC elected officials say and party operatives say.

I am not saying this to put you off or be confrontational, btw.

I know you are a fighter and will roll your sleeves up.

[unblock]

2. completely misses that the a party realignment already happened between reagan and clinton.

compare the parties during the 70s vs. the parties by 2000.

the democratic party of 2000 is hardly different from the republican party of the 70s. a few liberal voices, mostly silenced at the hands of corporate money.

the republican party of 2000 is hardly different from the john birch society of the 70s. the split between the pragmatists and the tea party is about tactics more than anything, it does not, to my mind, constitute a realignment but merely the normal struggle within a stable party.

in any event, the "pragmatists" have already realigned themselves with extremist rhetoric, amped up hatred, democrats are completely evil propaganda, etc. they didn't do half this crap in the 70s.


the realignment already happened, and the one the article is talking about is at most merely the latest stage of that realignment.

[Cosmocat]

6. They LOVE the "radicals"

I don't get where people want to think there is some division here.

The radicals provide the energy to win elections ...

That is all they care about.

[unblock]

9. exactly. parties are never monoliths, and they've always had internal disagreement on tactics.

both parties have always had members who appeal mostly to the base while pissing off independents and members of the other party, and others who appeal to independents and occasionally members of the other party while pissing off the base.

the tea party is not a realignment. who what constituency came into the party that wasn't there already?

[vi5]

3. I've been reading this crap for almost 20 years now.

After the Gingrich led House overreach: "This is the end of the GOP!!!"

After the Bush Supreme Court coup in 200: "This is the end of the GOP!!!"

After the Iraq War: "This is the end of the GOP!!!!!!"

After Katrina: "This is the end of the GOP!!!!!!!!!!"

After Dems swept the 2008 elections: "This is the end of the GOP!!!!!!!"

After each report showing Latinos/African Americans/etc. making up more of a percentage of the population "This is the end of the GOP!!!!"


After Obamacare passed "This is the end of the GOP!!!!"

After the most recent Government Shut down: "This is the end of the GOP!!!!!!"

Yeah, guess what. In January the GOP takes over even MORE of our governement. Doesn't look like a party on it's last legs to me or anyone with eyes and ears.

[Cosmocat]

5. I just had the same reply ...

this pathetic "the republican's time is coming" bullshit only enables democrats to do what they are doing now - literally, NOTHING.

[vi5]

7. I hadn't even thought of that aspect of it.

You are 100% right.

[Kablooie]

8. They can realign till the end of time but they will still win votes.

sure there could be a huge interior war going on but they won't split up.
And they will still win elections.
People don't vote for Republicans because of what they will do, they vote for them because the media tells them to.

[rtracey]

10. true

I agree it is media driven, but complacency still reigns true. Many who vote republican don't really understand the way their cuts and slashing will hurt them until it actually does.

[libdem4life]

11. When it hurts them, their Head Sheep tells them the Sly Old Fox did it. They are too

dumb to disagree or even question the tales of their overlord.

[Thor_MN]

12. The Tea Party are really the Idiocrats...

[cstanleytech]

14. Tea Party, Republican, same thing now really and the older republicans have themselves to blame for

their ouster as they empowered the idiots by pandering to them for the past few decades in order to get their votes.

[Wabbajack_]

17. We've always had the same 2 parties

The names have just changed, the pubs (Aka the rich people's party) started off as the Federalists and then eventually became the Whigs.