2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2016/2018/2020 US Senate Election- Democrats guide to a majority.
The U.S. Senate Races Democrats need to win in order to regain control of the US Senate in 2016 an retain control of the US Senate in 2018 and 2020 are
2016
IL- Bustos-D or Duckworth-D 47
WI- Feingold-D or Kind-D 48
PA- Sestak-D 49
NH- Hassan-D or Porter-D 50
AK- Begich-D 51
AZ- Giffords-D or Kelly-D 52
FL- Murphy-D or Graham-D 53
NC- Hagan-D 54
OH- Strickland-D or Boccieri-D 55
2018
AZ- Synema-D 56
NV- Cortez-Mastro-D 57
2020
CO- Hickenlooper-D 58
NC- Cunningham-D or Cowell-D 59
Democratic loses from 2016-2020 are going to be in
2016
CO- 58
NV- 57
2018
FL- 56
IN- 55
MO- 54
MT- 53
ND- 52
WV- 51
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)murielm99
(30,778 posts)as a winner. Duckworth has statewide recognition, and she is respected as a combat veteran.
Bustos is great. I like her, but we need her where she is. OTOH, if she does run and Duckworth does not, Bustos is a personal friend of Durbin's. He helped her win her first nomination and election, and he would throw his weight behind her for Senator.
Kirk can be beaten, and he knows it. He has been trying to pose as a moderate, and softening some of his right-wing positions lately. If they are willing to call him out on his flip-flopping, and point out his precarious health, they could weaken him even more.
I have met both of these women, and heard them speak. They both have stellar records. Illinois can be on board in retaking the Senate!
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)1)IL- Duckworth-D or Bustos-D
2)WI- Feingold-D or Kind-D
3)PA- Sestak-D
4)NH- Hassan-D or Shea Porter-D
5)AZ- Giffords-D or Kirkpatrick-D
IL,WI,PA,and NH are blue states with top tier Democratic challengers.
AZ- McCain-R loses in a primary to Schweikert-R or Salmon-R who loses in the general election to Giffords-D or Kirkpatrick-D
Democrats could also win
AK- Begich-D wind the Democratic nominee, Murkowski-R loses the GOP nomination to a Tea Party challenger and runs as an Independent/Write in.
Due to the likelihood of Democrats winning the White House- Gore/Kerry states add up to 257ev plus NV and CO,VA,or OH. plus Democrats are likely to hold onto CO and NV will be a Tossup.
Democrats will regain control of the U.S. Senate.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)AZ- Giffords-D or Sinema-D , Flake-R loses to a Tea Party challenger making it easy for the Democrats to win and Democrats will target the 2018 AZ Governors Race- Gordon-D or Stanton-D
NV- Cortez Mastro-D or Miller-D, one of them runs for Governor, the other runs for US Senate. Heller-R and Hutchinson-R don't have the crossover appeal that Sandoval-R has.
Democrats will need to hold onto
FL- open seat, Democrats nominate Murphy-D or Graham-D, one runs for Governor, the other runs for US Senate. Murphy-D and Graham-D both represent Republican leaning districts.
NM- Heinrich-D vs Martinez-R, Democrats pick up the NM governorship with Balderas-D
OH- Brown-D vs Kasich-R, Democrats pick up the OH Governorship Brunner-D or Codray-D
WI- Baldwin-D vs Walker-R, Democrats pick up the WI Governorship- Abele-D
Democratic loses in 2018 are likely to be in
IN,ND,and WV.