2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy You'll Like Clinton, Eventually
Jun 4, 2015 10:11 AM EDT
By Jonathan Bernstein
This Candidate, you're going to believe, can really connect with the American people. He/she is a new kind of [Democrat/Republican]. This Candidates qualifications for the presidency aren't just impressive. It's uncanny how well This Candidates skills and history seem exactly made for the challenges the U.S. faces in 2016. Most politicians just spout cliches, you'll think, but This Candidate talks with, not at, us.
Oh, and on a personal level: What about that heartbreaking anecdote about This Candidates family history? Why didnt This Candidate talk more about the personal stuff earlier? People would have realized then just how special he/she is. And what a refreshing collection of technocrats, oddballs and respected veterans are running This Candidates campaign!
Some things in elections are difficult to predict, but the cycle of enthusiasm for presidential nominees isn't one of them. It's real, foreseeable and practically irresistible. As John Sides said on Wednesday in the Washington Post, campaigns almost always rally each partys voters behind their nominee. This is in the context of what he predicts will be a temporary (and modest) decline in Hillary Clintons polling numbers among Democrats. But the ebb-and-flow pattern is even more relevant to the generally dismal polling numbers the Republican candidates have compiled in this presidential cycle.
The way we feel about politicians is affected by context. A good example is to look back at John Kerrys favorable/unfavorable ratings (here from Gallup) over time. Back before 2004, the year of his first presidential campaign, Kerry was mostly unknown, but those who knew him liked him. He has a rating of 30 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable.
As his campaign for the Democratic nomination began, his unfavorability spiked (with both Republicans and Howard Dean supporters learning who he was probably and not liking him), leaving him with a rating of 31 percent favorable and 32 percent unfavorable.
more...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-04/why-you-ll-like-clinton-eventually
Chan790
(20,176 posts)I expect that Hillary if she were to become the nominee will run a close race that she nevertheless has no means of winning.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)I've always like Hillary but I like Bernie better. If she wins the nomination I will be 100% behind her.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)day, come Nov. '16, I'll most likely fall in line but I'll have to be seriously 'self-medicated'.
Personally...I just don't like her!
DeeDeeNY
(3,356 posts)Puglsy
(23 posts)already. Youre underestimating her power over the voters at this point.
Cal33
(7,018 posts)what's more important for our nation than merely connecting with people is his political
agenda. Bernie is, and has always been, for ALL the American people, and he is for
bringing the highest earning crooks to justice for their crimes. He is not coddling them
in order to make big bucks himself. He is fighting them.
Bernie is interested in preventing our country from falling still further down the drain
because of the present incredibly corrupt ways of big corporations. It's high time that
someone cared enough to try stopping our nation from becoming the bottom of the barrel.
Would you care to join Bernie in this venture?