Why Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic

[upaloopa]

nomination and beat any republican in 2016.
Hillary Clinton leads New Hampshire and Iowa. If she wins both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, odds will favor her getting the Democratic nomination.
Bernie Sanders is still considered a long shot while email and false foreign donor scandals have had no effect on the Clinton campaign.
Past history is no kind if predictor of future events. While Hillary lost to Obama in 2008, Bernie Sanders does not have the support that Barack Obama had that year.
George McGovern lost to Nixon in 1972 when current events of 2015 were unheard of. Yet no candidate can lay claim to being responsible for today's victories for Gay marriage and the removal of the Confederate flag. Sanders remains a McGovern like candidate.
Hillary Clinton enjoys practically unanimous support among blacks, Hispanics and Asians whose turnout will lead to victory in 2016 since the Republicans reliance on the white vote is making it less likely that they will get enough votes to win.
In the latest polls Hillary lead her closest rival by 60 points among Democrats, a margin he is not likely to make up during the primary season.

[boston bean]

1. dose of reality is sometimes hard to take...

expect your post to be flamed and ridiculed for speaking the reality.

[upaloopa]

4. Thanks

There is nothing Bernie people can do to dampen my support for Hillary.
I was informed by her campaign that my name will be listed among her donors in tonight's fund raising announcement.
That beats the crap out of anything they can say to me.

[boston bean]

5. Yep, me too!

[Comrade Grumpy]

17. When did opinion become "reality"?

[boston bean]

18. Opinion is never reality? hmmmm learn something new every day, I guess.

[Iliyah]

2. K & R

[NCTraveler]

3. Astute analysis but I think you are missing one thing.

The media needs a horse race. The media will manufacture a horse race. O'Malley or Sanders will go into the first states within the margin of error, if not ahead. The media has the tools to do it, it is in their best interests, they will make it so. I believe in the following weeks you will see O'Malley all over the networks. I believe they will promote O'Malley or at least run many favorable stories on him, trash Hillary as they always do, and get their horse race. Glad I like O'Malley.

Can we get O'Malley in the spell check?

[Iliyah]

8. I think HRC supporters already know that corporate media will as usual make this

a horse race. Its already happening for both parties.

As to trashing HRC, what else is new? Trust me, O'Malley (whom is like very much), Sanders, and Webb will be getting their fair share of the ugly realities and faslehoods of running for office.

Then you have Biden who may enter the Democratic Party's Presidential race as well.

Also, corporate media will favor the GOP party, and that is fact.

[NCTraveler]

9. "Also, corporate media will favor the GOP party, and that is fact."

In the general, yes. In the primaries, not until they get their horse race on the dem side.

[Iliyah]

12. I beg to differ, and this is my opinion. Corporate media wants GOP control in all branches.

At this point in time, HRC is a strong contender who can win the WH, break her down any means necessary is their goal.

Divide and conquer. Jeb Bush is their nominee. Make him look sane by pumping up the crazies, i.e. Trump, comes to mine.

I really believe that's corporate media's purpose.

[NCTraveler]

16. " HRC is a strong contender who can win the WH, break her down any means necessary is their goal."

We seem to be in complete agreement. Sorry if I am missing something. In order for that sentence to be accurate, they will have to make it a horse race in the primary. That means bringing her down while propping others on the dem side up. That was one of the points I made.

Once that happens, we get the shit treatment in the general. The media wants Trump there for fun, not to win. That would be devastating for them in the general.

[Iliyah]

20. Agreed to a point, but hey, I do love democracy!

Glad we are having the conversation. Something that has been lacking here at the DU.

Thank you!

[NCTraveler]

22. True. I am actually really excited at what might happen in the next year or two.

We are in a great position to continue going in the right direction. Not backward. Really excited about that. Not as excited about the house. That will take more time.

[AgingAmerican]

6. "Past history is no kind if predictor of future events." - but...

...McGovern 1972!!!

[cascadiance]

15. How about Hillary in 2008!

[cascadiance]

7. This was the same message being presented this time in 2007 when she was ahead then too...

... that she was inevitable, etc. so that everyone else should just accept reality. Until Obama rose LATER to take the lead then.

It is still way too early to just tell others that the race is over and to unite behind one candidate.

Hillary Clinton's campaign would be advised this time around not to just try and play that "inevitable game" this time around again, and start putting out some campaign messages why she is better than Bernie and all other challengers specifically on issues and how she's equipped to deal with them. Focus on that, and people won't resent being "talked down" to which many have felt not just from her but from many of the PTB these days that they feel are telling them "Don't question reality of what will happen and just accept it." People are really tired this time around especially of that sort of message, and want to feel that they are in power of deciding who will lead them for a change instead of just "accepting" that this power that our founders wanted us to have has just been taken away from them over recent decades.

Bernie actually has raised more money when he started his campaign than Obama did about the same time in that election. Granted, it is not as much from corporate sources, but Obama was also trying to appeal more directly to voters and getting smaller donations the way Bernie is trying to focus on now to have a sense of citizen involvement.

I notice you mention the supreme court decisions that were conveniently timed right after the horrendous TPA vote in congress that many of us refuse to ignore, even if the corporate media and other powers that can control timing of such events want us to try and forget. We want someone that will take a different approach than what the corporate owned politicians of today have taken us as shown in that bill's vote. And we WON'T be distracted from those sorts of issues, no matter how hard others try to do so.

Bernie has gone from a heavy underdog in New Hampshire to being about evenly matched now in the polls there. The more voters get to know him in other states before the votes, that equation will likely be repeated in other places too. It is still many months before these states start voting, and as was the case with Hillary and Obama in 2007, a LOT can change during this time.

Find another way to appeal to us and many other voters that are soon to find out when they meet Bernie who will be fighting for them and not corporate powers like the banks.

[AgingAmerican]

10. She is losing 2% - 3% a week to Bernie

...in the polls. This with 8 months to go until the first primary.

[upaloopa]

11. Sorry but this is not a game.

Like I have often said Bernie folks do not live in the real world but in the DU bubble.

[cascadiance]

14. DU doesn't control the size of the huge crowds that have attended Bernie's events in the real world

This is not a meme that the corporate media echo chamber can make work... It is more than just us here on DU that want someone like Bernie that represents WE THE PEOPLE, and not the so-called WE THE CORPORATE PEOPLE (that the Supreme Court judicial activists try to define corporations as). The more people see that he is running and that is what he's about is why he's shrinking that gap a lot now. Much like Obama's rise in 2007. But this time around, the messages aren't the more nebulous "Hope and Change" themes that has left Obama a lot of wiggle room as president to work around when president. Bernie's been more specific on the kind of things he's done and has been consistent in these messages in his political career, and that resonates with people who know that he's making himself more than Obama did, even when trying to appeal to them in the same fashion that Obama did in 2007.

[99Forever]

25. I lots of "Bernie people" who have...

....never even heard of DU.


Bubble that.

[frylock]

27. Maybe you need to get out of the DU bubble, and check some social media sites.

[Comrade Grumpy]

13. Thanks for sharing your opinion.

[Capt. Obvious]

19. 80-20

[bowens43]

21. a with hillary really isn't a win, it's just a consolation prize.....and a very good one

[Stellar]

23. Bernie Sanders gaining in 2016 polls for good reasons

http:/www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/06/bernie_sanders_g/aining_for_good_reasons_letter.html

To the Editor:

Forget Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee. Next year's Democratic primary looks like a two-way race between U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. Sanders is gaining in the polls, and his campaign appearances are drawing huge crowds.

That's because the Vermont senator is the only candidate discussing the serious issues that interest serious voters. He defends Social Security, and supports free public higher education and single-payer health care. Sanders also wants to fight income inequality by raising taxes on the rich to pay for needed improvements to our deteriorating infrastructure. He also wants to create jobs that can't be exported, and he supports clean energy.

And...

"Hillary Clinton enjoys practically unanimous support among blacks, Hispanics and Asians whose turnout will lead to victory in 2016 since the Republicans reliance on the white vote is making it less likely that they will get enough votes to win."

Not always. If you are a person of color, you pay attention to hurtful things that is said about your race.

Bill Clinton has now EXPLICITLY played the race card
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/01/27/443760/-Bill-Clinton-has-now-EXPLICITLY-played-the-race-card

Clinton Race Baiting (a time line, for those still confused)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4193768

Group: Tell Clinton to Stop ‘Race-Baiting’
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/group-tell-clinton-to-stop-race-baiting/

[Gothmog]

24. HRC has a ton of support in Texas

[lunamagica]

26. K&R. Good analysis.

I believe Bernie Sanders will get his best numbers in Iowa and NH. After that, he will fade fast.

[Flying Squirrel]

29. I would bookmark this to laugh at later

But it's not really worth it.

[PowerToThePeople]

30. unrec